Halo 3 sold the first 10 million when the userbase topped out at a little under 35 million or so.   This was with a launch where it had a relatively small library to compete with as opposed to now, and it was the most popular brand of the most popular genre at the time and an initial 1 in 3-ish attach rate.  One in every 3 console owners bought the game in its first couple months.

With PS3 at 40 million by holiday, I just can't see that kind of attach rate for this genre.  I just can't.  I don't care how amazing the game is.  

I don't think there's a chance that GT5 outsells Reach lifetime.  I'm going to say Reach hits 10-12 million, and GT5 ends up about 7-8 million.

The top seller for PS3 is COD:MW2 at a little over 8 million.  Is GT5 a more powerful brand than that right now?  Maybe worldwide, and it IS exclusive...BUT....

The top selling exclusive is MGS4 at 4.8 million.  Is GT5 more than twice as strong a seller?  Dunno.

No no no no no no no no and no. PS2 numbers over 100 milion units so less than 10% attach rate for GT4 bit higher for GT3 but when GT3 came it had no racing game that could be compared to it. Halo 3 had over 50% attach rate when it came (and still around 25%). And Cod MW2 has sold faster than Halo 3 (on 360 alone) and yes Halo Reach will sell more for 360 than MW2. So this is about as likely as PSP-Go outselling the 3DS.

Edit. Also like to add that Halo: Reach is gonna sell more in the first week, than KZ3 will do lifetime sales.

One thing is for sure, GT5 will have a very hard time to break the 10 million barrier, and if it will it won't be by much. It's not only that Playstation 3 is smaller than PS1&PS2, it's also the fact that the care game genre isn't as big as before.

The problem is to predict Halo: Reach. Is Halo on a decline? Will Reach be able to outsell Halo 3 or not? At the moment I feel it won't, but I believe it will pass 10 million copies.

So Halo: Reach will outsell GT5 by at least a small margin.

GT is in a whole other league than Mario kart.  To compare them is wrong. One just sells cause it is mario the other is a real driving simulator. I am a xbox fan and even I like GT. GT is one reason I hate playstation cause it is so addicting. 

And GT5 will probly sell more in its first week or 2nd than what Forza 3  sold right now whats your point?

More ppl to add in the "Rub it till they leave the site" list once GT5 is here and when all is said and done.

anyways keep up with your downplaying GT5 comments ppl, looks like the "Uncharted 2 will not sell 2m " crow serving will be dethroned by GT5 crow serving....ohhh can't w8!!!!!  

3 million in the first week, unlikely but maybe... Also im not criticizing GT5, i just hink that the possibility of it actually outselling Halo: Reach, is about as big as PSP selling more than DS. The KZ2 comment, i just added since the op seemed to think that KZ2 where the hottest thing to hit the market last year along with UC2.

My prediction for GT5 is: first playstation 3 exclusive to break 5 million, but it wont happen this year.

Edit nvm, MGS4 will be the first.

Who cares...there two completely different types of games going after two different auidences...  The only way GT5 will outsell Halo Reach is if your throw in International Sales figures.. due to lack of intrest in the xbox 360 and FPSes in Japan.  So when you throw International sales figures into the mix yes...

But, North American sales figures alone....simple...No.

I mean look at reserved games right now...

HALO Reach is at 325,000 with 14 wks left before release.. with a weekly change of 25,000 units (this number will reach probably 1 million by launch)

While GT5 is sitting at 75,000 reserved titles with a weekly change of 833 even if it reaches over 100,000 reserves which it  will... it will still be over 900,000 sales short and by then maybe 1 million plus behind Halo Reach.

A Racing game will not erase that deficit.

Seriously doubt that one...Forza 3 has already sold well of million units...GT 5 wont break a million it's first 2 wks.

I would hardly gloat about Uncharted 2 sure it may be a great game...but when you look at the fact Halo 3 has outsold Uncharted 1&2, Killzone 2, and Resistance 1&2 combined liftime sales....you really want to gloat about that???

So u re saying gt5 ll only have 100k preorders in us by release? ROFLMAO

Ok here re few facts, at the moment reach is lacking in preorders compared to halo 3 and mw2 preorders on 360. If im correct halo 3 did about 3 millions first week WW. Then this holiday u have black ops, moh and maybe crysis, all these titles ll take costumer here and there from reach. So i think reach ll not do better than halo 3 first week. Its proven times and times again this gen that install base doesnt matter, it can do  better or worse its hard to predict.

So....in usa i beleive reach ll outsell gt5. Actually im 95% sure.

Worldwide, dont think so, althought anything can happen. GT is strong in japan, usa and escpecially here in eu. What halo s to NA gt is to EU. SImply gt is part of culture, life. I know 30,40 years old guys how dont play games at all but ey buy and play every gt when it comes out.

Im 95% sure gt5 ll do over 2 millions first week WW, and we all know how big legs gt games have.

POint is, WW gt5 can do it, in USA no.