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Forums - Sales Discussion - Is It Possible For GT5 To OutSell Halo Reach Lifetime?...I Think So!

c0rd on 22 June 2010
Michael-5 said:

Not only that, but look at Modern Warfare. MW2 outsold MW1 by about 40% already, and it hasn't even been an entire year. Why? Modern Warfare 2 is no better of a game then Modern Warfare 1, I would say except for Spec ops, it's actually a worse game. Yet 40% more sales? Intall bases are important for mass market FPS titles. If Halo Reach sells 40% better, the game is over 15 million units already, but I beleive it could do a lot better.

The reason Modern Warfare 2 did so well was because the first game was so good, and people craved more. However, "Modern Warfare" itself is like a new IP (note its relatively slow opening), so the first game had to introduce the series to many gamers, while many others missed out on it. By the time the second game was coming out, all the potential buyers were aware of the game (via word of mouth and advertisements) and were ready for it, and the result is what you see - a ridiculously large opening.

Halo Reach is not in the same situation. We all knew Halo was the Xbox series since Halo 2 (see the jump from the first to the second game), which is why the opening for Halo 3 was so large. I'm quite sure Halo Reach won't outsell Halo 3 by something like 25% (14 mil). Notice how the pre-orders aren't even matching MW2 in America, even though the Halo series is more skewed towards America than CoD is.

Let me ask you this: do you think Modern Warfare 3 will sell even better than MW2? I'm almost positive it won't, regardless of the fact that the series has only risen in popularity since the first game (much like the Halo games).

Hynad said:

GT3 came out in 2001. A game usually sells the better of its number during its first 2 years. At this point in time, the PS2 install base was at roughly 46.5 milion yet GT3 still sold over 14 milion.

Check out my earlier post for details on that!



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leo-j on 22 June 2010
selnor said:
ethomaz said:

@selnor

Have you ever played a racing simulation game??? Or drove a real racing car?? Because Forza 3 has almost nothing simulation... it's a Arcade racing game with some simulation features.


Yes I have. I also race on weekends. So I know how a 'racing' car handles to. Have you ever driven a car with actual downforce? ( Not fake Impreza spoilers round town ). 

IRacing and RFactor are very good. And the best on the market. 

For a console sim ( as I said previously ) Forza is quite a way ahead. Obviously it may change when GT5 is released. But as Polyphony have not mentioned any of the above stuff, I am not holding my breath.

Forza is ahead? Really considreing Forza handles more like an arcade racer than an actual racing sim..  And that's just the racing.. I'm not even going to touch anything else..



 

mM
ElGranCabeza on 22 June 2010
Michael-5 said:
5. Forza 3 is currently at 2.7 million, and consistantly selling among the top 30 games world wide. It's still selling 35-60k units a week. In less then 10 weeks, it will top 3 million, I think the game will eventually get about 5-6, maybe even 7 million sales. More then any other racing game after Gran Turismo 1-4, and the Mario Kart's.

 

C'mon man, there's absolutely, positively no way this happens. Forza 3 sales are gonna pick up until the old Elite's get sold out. Forza 3 sales were helped by heavy bundles in the US and EU. Forza 3 sales were helped because you were able to pick it up for U$40 when it released in the US and throughout the Holiday season. From what I hear the price was very cheap in EU and the UK since last Fall as well. Forza 3 is a great game, but its sales are greatly inflated and its sales are gonna slow down signficantly when the bundles are gone. I could see it reaching 5 million, but not more unless MS bundles it with every kinect/360.



lestatdark on 22 June 2010
leo-j said:

I thought selnor was a "racing fan" yet he is attacking GT just like a  mother would attack her child's enemy..


He is a racing and simulator fan, but he always does this for GT.

Same thing happened when the GT5 trailer was shown on E3 2009 and Forza 3 had that massive info blowout. At that time, he had any right to do so, mainly because Forza 3 did show some amazing simulation mechanics and GT5 showed nothing, but I clearly remember how he hated that in each Forza 3 there was an immense amount of trolling. 

Unfortunately, he's falling into the hypocrisy of doing the same thing he hated before.



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ElGranCabeza on 22 June 2010

Hey Selnor, are you gonna take my bet or what? 



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Michael-5 on 22 June 2010
rossoner said:

This Michael is on roll ROFLMAO. Where u get all this stuff?

 

1.gt3 sold a lot more than 400k in 2 weeks. Only in us it was over 1 million.

2.forza 2 vs gt3 in 2009? Are u for real?

3.Forza 2 DID NOT sold more than prologue. OFFICIAL report says prologue is close to 5 millions, about 4.8.

4.THERE IS NO CHANCE forza 3 ll end on 7 millions.

5.COD is much bigger franchise now than it was in 2007. So reach ll have much bigger competition in black ops than halo 3 had with cod4. Common sense dude.

 

Its that easy.

1. Actually I forgot vgchartz has Japan only data for weekly sales, so this is my mistake

2. Typo I mean Forza 3

3. What official reports? Were on VGChartz, the Guiness Book of World records using CGChartz, and everyone here is using CGChartz to report sales figures. Forza Motorsport 2 sold 4 million, and GT5 Prologue sold like 3.6 million.

And if you find this official report about Prologue, find one for Forza Motorsport 2 because it's just as likely that both sales figures are fudged down, and Forza 2 would still be ahead.

4. The game is at 2.70 million now, and selling roughly 35,000 units a week in the summer. Come fall sales will pick up to around 100,000 units a week again (or at least 70,000 weekly). So lets say now to september the game sells 35,000 weekly and september to end of the year it sells 70,000 weekly. Thats 11 weeks selling 35k, and 17 weeks selling 70k. thats 385k 1,190k = 1.575 million sales by the end of the year. That puts the game at 4.2 million sales, taking just over a year. It still has 1 extra year before Forza Kinect or Forza 4, or whatever comes out, thats at least another million. I said 5-6 million, but you never know, it could reach 7. Maybe GT5's release will boost Forza sales because Forza will be brought up in many many reviews.

5. No I still beleive you are wrong. Infinity Ward Call of Duty games (and the Modern Warfare franchise) are the more Popular games of the series. This is why Modern Warfare still outsold Treyarchs World at War, and by a large number still. Also with the big news of Infinity Ward falling apart, Call of Duty: Black Ops is a smaller compeditor then Modern Warfare was. Modern Warfare made Call of Duty what it is today, before that Call of Duty games sold under 2 million each. common sence that Modern Warfare is >> Black Ops, Infinity vs Treyarch man.



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selnor on 22 June 2010
lestatdark said:
selnor said:
lestatdark said:
selnor said:
ethomaz said:
selnor said:
Agreed, but how many of the GT buyers of old, havent bothered this time around with a PS3. Chances are high. Forza 3 is selling more each week than GT3 did consecutively. ( although GT3 sold most in it's opening, but still not bad thereafter. ) So are some old PS2 owners who own a 360 now not gonna bother with PS3 and GT5? If ou have played Forza 3 it's more than a filler for GT. In many peoples opinion a more community feel and better realistic physics system. But thats opinion.

I think GT5 will be doing well to beat 7-8 million Lifetime. Making it PS3's best selling exclusive by 3 million copies.

How do you know the bold part??? GT3 here in VGC has only Japan sales track.

Sorry, but Forza 3 sales is disappointing for me... I expected better sales even with it unrealistic physical (more like Arcade racing).

Sorry I meant GT4. 

And I among Simulation racing reviews ( not mainstream gaming reviews ) say Forza 3 is the best car sim model on Consoles currently. Thanks to the only Console sim to provide physics updates 360 times a second and actual tyre deformation including managing tyre temperatures for more performance from your tyres. 

I would rather make sure GT5 has these must have simulation aspects done before they work on weather. Rain is again even more about tyre deformation than the dry. Be interesting if they have actually implemented all this. Or is it the same as GT4. 

Same as GT4? Oh the laughter.

http://us.gran-turismo.com/us/news/d5247p3.html Please, take a good long read.

And as you should know by now, since it seems that you're following GT5 development so close, the full GT5 media blowout will be at Gamescon this August. 

And there are major undisclosed features yet to be announced to GT5 too: http://www.gtplanet.net/major-gran-turismo-5-feature-still-undisclosed/

Once again Selnor, you're grasping at straws. Practice what you preached back in the days of the Forza 3 threads.

I am not interested in aesthetical changes to technolgy in racing games first. I am interested in the important factors which in real life affect a cars handling.

1. Tyres are the only surface which connects the car to a road. More variables happen from changing tyre conditions than any other part on any car.

2. In a sim racing game, the updating of physics is as important as the force feedback. The less the physics is updated the less of the track affects the ambience of the car. As much as 8ft @ 120 hertz physics.

 

It's great the tech about changing lighting etc making race conditions change ( obviously visibility ) but I want to know if the walls of tyres deform throwing pressure on the outer wall of the tyre like Forza 3. I want to know if having an excursion over grass, cools your tyres and affects the next few corners for grip levels. I want to know if online people who can heat there tyres up quicker with their driving style have an advantage for better grip earlier on. 

These are important simulation aspects, which have to be invloved to be classed as anything approaching a realsitic sim. 

After all these are in a GT game, then I will be happy to see night and day, changing weather. Because a wet race is even more important on tyre deformation. Blistering etc. 

I thought GT fans were sim fans? All anyone ever talks about and shows me is aesthetical technology and graphics.

Did you even read the part in the Gran Turismo site where they said they have a physics for the entire tire temperature? Do you honestly think it will only be for a more realistic smoke? 

Also, driving style affecting how quickly you can heat your tires has been implemented on GT before, GT4 had a rudimentary system, true, but it has been done. Of course it'll be enhanced for GT5.

And for your last phrase, don't patronize GT fans Selnor, it doesn't do any credit to you. If you had read the entire detail sheet over at GT site you would see the physics and mechanical changes they are implementing so far on GT5. 

Gran Turismo has always been used by far more than just GT fans as it's one of the most realistic approaches to racing, even GT5P garnered high praises from F1 to WRC pilots because of the fidelity approach not only to the tracks, but to the simulation aspect itself: http://www.gamer.tm/news.php?id=1919

Once again, practice what you preached before Selnor, wait before you make these assumptions, unless you fall into the same hypocrisy that you hated last year. 

The F1 and WRC pilots that are refferred to are talking about track layout and learning where the track corners are etc. 

Top Gear did a GT vs realife awhile ago using GT4.  Where they drove around a track on GT then in realife. 

The outcome of comments was : In GT the driving is very different from real world. You can learn the track layout, but braking points ( and braking during a corner ) were all very off. Driving the same car in real life around the same track was very different. Jeremy Clarksons actual comment was, if you drove the real car like you did in GT then you wouldnt make the corners. 

Obviously It's GT4. And Obviously GT5 will be improved. And yes I read about tyre temperatures. I hope that it's modeled in realtime. And not excrementally. I will be impressed if they model realtime 360 hertz physics ( as opposed to 120 in GT5P ) with realtime tyre temperatures and realtime tyre deformation. Also I hope that for downforce they also have realtime airflow like FM3. These are a must. It's simulation after all. On the poor braking of GT4 part, If they have a realtime tyre deformation physics this will be half the battle. Lets wait and see. hey.



selnor on 22 June 2010
leo-j said:

I thought selnor was a "racing fan" yet he is attacking GT just like a  mother would attack her child's enemy..


The game looks beautiful. The cars are fantastic. 

But as a 'RACING FAN' the things the matter I know and noone knows nothing about. See my previous post to what I must have in my serious racing games. 

If they arent there, then it's arcade as far as I'm concerned. Which is cool cos I love arcade to. Split/Second for the world.



Michael-5 on 22 June 2010
c0rd said:
Michael-5 said:

Not only that, but look at Modern Warfare. MW2 outsold MW1 by about 40% already, and it hasn't even been an entire year. Why? Modern Warfare 2 is no better of a game then Modern Warfare 1, I would say except for Spec ops, it's actually a worse game. Yet 40% more sales? Intall bases are important for mass market FPS titles. If Halo Reach sells 40% better, the game is over 15 million units already, but I beleive it could do a lot better.

The reason Modern Warfare 2 did so well was because the first game was so good, and people craved more. However, "Modern Warfare" itself is like a new IP (note its relatively slow opening), so the first game had to introduce the series to many gamers, while many others missed out on it. By the time the second game was coming out, all the potential buyers were aware of the game (via word of mouth and advertisements) and were ready for it, and the result is what you see - a ridiculously large opening.

Halo Reach is not in the same situation. We all knew Halo was the Xbox series since Halo 2 (see the jump from the first to the second game), which is why the opening for Halo 3 was so large. I'm quite sure Halo Reach won't outsell Halo 3 by something like 25% (14 mil). Notice how the pre-orders aren't even matching MW2 in America, even though the Halo series is more skewed towards America than CoD is.

Let me ask you this: do you think Modern Warfare 3 will sell even better than MW2? I'm almost positive it won't, regardless of the fact that the series has only risen in popularity since the first game (much like the Halo games).

Hynad said:

GT3 came out in 2001. A game usually sells the better of its number during its first 2 years. At this point in time, the PS2 install base was at roughly 46.5 milion yet GT3 still sold over 14 milion.

Check out my earlier post for details on that!

Thats 100% true, but the X-Box install base has doubled since Halo 3, what about those 25 million gamers? Halo on X-box 1, a lot of people missed out since that console was nowhere nearly as popular as the PS2. Now Microsoft is a more popular brand, and Halo 3 came out a long time ago. I still think Halo Reach will have the same affect Modern Warfare had. Maybe not as strong, but a lot of people missed Halo 3 as well, and only when Halo 3 came out did Halo become that mass market FPS.

Also the fact that the install base for Halo Reach is twice as large as it ever was for ANY past Halo title (1-3), and that this is the last Halo by bungie, I think those factors will be a significant contributor to the games sales. Halo games never get an attach rate below 25%, and I don't think this one will either.



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ethomaz on 22 June 2010
Michael-5 said:

3. What official reports? Were on VGChartz, the Guiness Book of World records using CGChartz, and everyone here is using CGChartz to report sales figures. Forza Motorsport 2 sold 4 million, and GT5 Prologue sold like 3.6 million.

And if you find this official report about Prologue, find one for Forza Motorsport 2 because it's just as likely that both sales figures are fudged down, and Forza 2 would still be ahead.

VGChartz track physical media only... the digital downloaded version is tracking 0 now... but here the official list:

http://www.polyphony.co.jp/english/list.html

Gran Turismo 5 “Prologue” (March 2010) = 4.84 Million (physical and digital)

But this is shipped only for physical sales for end of March... but if VGC put digital sales together then easy over 4.5M for GT5:P today.