Is It Possible For GT5 To OutSell Halo Reach Lifetime?...I Think So!

[Michael-5]

c0rd said:

Michael-5 said:

Not only that, but look at Modern Warfare. MW2 outsold MW1 by about 40% already, and it hasn't even been an entire year. Why? Modern Warfare 2 is no better of a game then Modern Warfare 1, I would say except for Spec ops, it's actually a worse game. Yet 40% more sales? Intall bases are important for mass market FPS titles. If Halo Reach sells 40% better, the game is over 15 million units already, but I beleive it could do a lot better.

The reason Modern Warfare 2 did so well was because the first game was so good, and people craved more. However, "Modern Warfare" itself is like a new IP (note its relatively slow opening), so the first game had to introduce the series to many gamers, while many others missed out on it. By the time the second game was coming out, all the potential buyers were aware of the game (via word of mouth and advertisements) and were ready for it, and the result is what you see - a ridiculously large opening.

Halo Reach is not in the same situation. We all knew Halo was the Xbox series since Halo 2 (see the jump from the first to the second game), which is why the opening for Halo 3 was so large. I'm quite sure Halo Reach won't outsell Halo 3 by something like 25% (14 mil). Notice how the pre-orders aren't even matching MW2 in America, even though the Halo series is more skewed towards America than CoD is.

Let me ask you this: do you think Modern Warfare 3 will sell even better than MW2? I'm almost positive it won't, regardless of the fact that the series has only risen in popularity since the first game (much like the Halo games).

Hynad said:

GT3 came out in 2001. A game usually sells the better of its number during its first 2 years. At this point in time, the PS2 install base was at roughly 46.5 milion yet GT3 still sold over 14 milion.

Check out my earlier post for details on that!

Thats 100% true, but the X-Box install base has doubled since Halo 3, what about those 25 million gamers? Halo on X-box 1, a lot of people missed out since that console was nowhere nearly as popular as the PS2. Now Microsoft is a more popular brand, and Halo 3 came out a long time ago. I still think Halo Reach will have the same affect Modern Warfare had. Maybe not as strong, but a lot of people missed Halo 3 as well, and only when Halo 3 came out did Halo become that mass market FPS.

Also the fact that the install base for Halo Reach is twice as large as it ever was for ANY past Halo title (1-3), and that this is the last Halo by bungie, I think those factors will be a significant contributor to the games sales. Halo games never get an attach rate below 25%, and I don't think this one will either.