If Microsoft keeps pushing Kinect and promoting it really hard, then I could still see them winning out of the two, but after this E3 and the software they're pushing with it... I find more reasons to go with Move, given Sony's also got a decent bit of momentum, I'd say Move has a 70/30 chance the 30 being if MS promotes the crap out of kinect and do it right the 70 if both are pushed out there and word of mouth take over.

What Move games do you see really pushing word of mouth, Nintendo style?

Other than the blatant sports game collection rip off?  Ape Escape for me, I know the original sold me on Dual Analog control, but Nintendo style really wouldn't fit either of them... I really don't see MS or Sony doing anything Nintendo style despite doing their best to replicate that magic, I don't think they quite understand yet...

Move will fail considering line-up of games. they trying to sell more consoles but their core line-up of games that supports Move won't sell them and the fact that most of those "games" are titles like Heavy Rain or Resident Evil 5 which you have to buy AGAIN to use Move. besides core gamers won't buy ps3 for Move.

so that's leaving their casual/mainstream line-up of games that is simply terrible compared to Microsoft. casual and mainstream won't buy Move and ps3 because they didn't show anything that would differential them from wii and let's be honset

wii with 2 games, motion plus and full motion controler - 200$

ps3 with Move one game and additional controler - 450$

every additional full set of wii controlers - 80$

every additional set of Move controlers - 100$

plus Nintendo have most beloved mainstream characters and franchises.

and here comes Microsoft let's see:

great casual/mainstream line-up of games that actually differentiated Kinect from wii, showing it as the next big thing with games like Your Shape or Dance Central.

Kinect abilities besides gaming

Kinect dashboard

even for 150$ it will be low price for casuals. let's be clear here MS is going after casual and mainstream market if they will advertise it as 150$ for WHOLE family they will be even more willing to get it then 200$ Rockband game or 250$ wii system.

free ESPN

Star Wars game - it's HUGE thing for mainstream .

upcoming Disney title which is even bigger deal for casual market,

the fact that Move comes first is actually bad thing for sony - what thing will have buzz right before christmas? Kinect since it will come right before it. what will be shown on every friggin tv morning show/talk show? Kinect.

I havent seen a signle post where someone says they'll actually buy any of the devices for themselves. Its always, A is better than B because. Or someones kids or nephew really liked it. Nintendo has this locked down imo.

As to whos going to be more successful, i dont see any winner. Either one can manage to sell above expectations, but with the kind of hype they're bringing to the table, non of them will succeed. Just look at the whole "new console launch" that MS hyped up. They showed the games of Kinect and they showed the slim 360. But no one is talking about it. Joystiq, IGN, Kotaku, team xbox, thesixthaxis, gametrailers etc etc.. non of them are talking about the "new console launch". Everything after E3 has been about core games and nintendo.

Core gamers will buy the PS3 for the PS3, just like they've been doing since september last year. They will not NOT buy the PS3 for the Move. The Move is all about casual, the core features are just added incentives.

And awesome how Your Shape and a Star Wars game is HUGE and the next big thing, while nothing else from either Ninty or Sony can attract the mainstream. Tainted? Noooo...

Whats there to not understand? Kinect is actually closer to Microsofts core competency than the original interface ever was. Their core competency is mass market software and both Windows 7 and Office 2007/10 have had vast improvements to their UI, the latter especially.

I'll just repost what I said elsewhere cos im lazy:

Actually Microsoft IMO are targeting 4 main areas.

1. People who are intimidated by controllers, any controllers.

2. People who would never consider playing games.

3. People who are excited by hands free interfaces for media/gaming.

4. People who are underserved by the Wii by attempting to make the experience as easy as possible and with new possibilities brought out by the different interface.

Anyway Microsoft unveiled 4 key killer apps for the mainstream market.

1. Media interface ESPN to go along with Netflix, Zune, Zune video, Sky TV.

2. Dance game which was more akin to Rockband, and it looked like a lot of fun. Its unique and not replicated like that anywhere.

3. Fitness game. Sure theres the Wii Fit but this is an entirely different approach and from what I saw it may actually work better as a fitness program which surprised me. Ubisoft obviously know their stuff.

4. Kinectimals. It looks like it uses the same Milo base technology. It looks very compelling to keep small children distracted for half an hour or so at a time. Parents love anything which keeps their kids from bugging them!

I think you're looking for disruption where there is none. The Wii experience is too alike to Kinects than different.

People were put off by a traditional controller but if they are intimidated by a remote control they are going to be even more intimidated by an xbox and Kinect. I also think you're overestimating Microsofts ability to make something accessible. There is no low-end here for MS especially not at expected prices. I don't think kinect would fall under the category of 'crappy product'. 'Crappy customers' may apply though.

That's not to say Kinect won't do better than Move.

• In almost every case, a disruptive technology enables a larger population of less skilled people to do things that historically only an expert could do. And to do it in a more convenient setting. In hundreds of industries, this is a very common characteristic.
• You can’t disrupt a market in which customers are not yet overserved by the prevailing offerings. [...]
• The successful disruptive business model facilitates or lubricates existing patterns of behavior. It’s not predicated on consumers changing behavior. [...] People don’t willingly buy products that do a worse job of what they’re trying to get done.
• The disruptive technology almost always takes root in a very undemanding application, and the established market leaders almost always try to cram the disruption into the established application. In so doing, they spend enormous amounts of money and fail.

http://www.skmurphy.com/blog/2010/06/09/distant-early-warning-signs-of-market-disruption/

What conditions must be present to create disruption?

1. The market for the product or service is experiencing, or is likely to experience, an increased rate of demand. This demand might be created by social, business or regulatory change.
2. The economic outcomes in providing, acquiring or adopting the new product or service must be significantly better than the prevailing offerings.
3. The business model or core technology used for the innovation must be both fundamentally different from the prevailing offerings and sustainable.

http://www.customerthink.com/article/strategies_create_disruption

There are two slightly different definitions.

But yes, its probably not disruption in a sense that all proponents of the theory would call it that. However it does come into the market at a distinct position which is actually IMO fundamentally lower than the Wii at least on paper. Its designed to offer simpler gameplay, new gameplay possibilities and new media consumption possibilities at the level of the original Wiimote concept without the attached nunchuck and lower. I.E. Its targeting people who aren't gamers and people who are 'overserved' which is ironic really by the Wii.

um, ok? you totally missed the point of what i've wrote. i was comparing Kinect vs Move. which thing will be more successful? one that will sell more systems with it. let's face the facts here - core gamers who didn't get either HD platform are VERY limited group that started "dying". they will buy ps3/360 regardless of Move and Kinect that are simply unrelevant to most of the core gamers at current price point.

that's why Your Shape, Dance Central, Star Wars and Disney games ARE VERY relevant in this "battle".

first game have enough novelty and appeal to attract people who bought probably more than 60mln copies of fitness games on the wii - people won't get ps3 with Move for fitness games even if Sony will release 50 of them and every will be free since for them it will be the exact same thing like Wii Fit and the only thing they will see is 200$ for the wii and 450$ for ps3 with Move. same thing apply to Dance Central.

now for the Star Wars and Disney - those are 2 biggest things in entertainment industry just like Nintendo in video games. people will buy games based on Star Wars and Disney characters simply because it's Star Wars(biggest franchise in entertainment industry) and Disney. people won't get those ratchet/jak crossover game. no, it will be sold in 90% to fans of those franchises who already HAVE ps3. Star Wars Kinect game have 1:1 lightsabers fights no matter if it's Star Wars die hard fans, fans of SF in general or mainstream they will get this game because of the franchise and 1:1 fights cause that's a their wet dream.