The "3DS" is presumed to come in March 2011, so I wouldn't expect Nintendo to drop hints of their next console until E3 of that year. To be honest, I wouldn't expect a new console until holiday 2012 (Nintendo as a market leader usually lasts that long - 6 years).

If the Xbox'720' drops holiday 2011 (what is the point of Natal then?) Nintendo can wait one year to release their console. With the region of Japan, they don't have to worry about Microsoft's console sales. The Wii eclipsed the 360 in sales very early on in its release as well. No matter what happens, MS could release A Nextbox in March 2011 and Nintendo wouldn't have to worry, but it isn't plausible nor practical for that to occur.

I do not think Sony is financially ready. 2012 is actually the earliest I see them dropping the PS4. They may truly believe in the 10 year plan and wait until March of 2013 or something. I just really don't think they can afford the R&D in conjunction with console production for a LONG time, and the market must get to a point where the PS3 is just as profitable to make as the PS2.

X720- Nov. 2011, PS4- March 2013, Wii2- Nov. 2012

Chances are Nintendo will hint at HiFi if that is indeed the codename or actually confirm it for release in the near future. Also keep in mind Miyamoto stated that the next console would have HD support he said so back in 2006. This means the console was already deep in development.

My bet is the console will be announced briefly at the end of Nintendo's conferance. However Nintendo might hold off till next E3 as they did with 3DS as to catch consumers off gaurd. But a new home console announcement from Nintendo is more then just possible it is a 50/50 chance in my mind maybe even 60/40!

Actually, the 3DS is launching in this fiscal year which ends March 31st 2011; and I would doubt that Nintendo would be releasing a console after the holiday season. With Nintendo’s preference of launching systems in the fall, on a Sunday, my personal guess is October 10th; which would put the launch date as 10/10/2010.

Microsoft isn't going to do something stupid like announce a follow-up to the X360 if they're hedging so many bets on the Natal.  Besides that, the X360 and PS3 still have untold secrets, power, and wealth in them.  On top of that, it would be a financial disaster for third parties and MS to suddenly try to jump to the next generation.  The jump last time killed off a great many developers and publishers.  Suffice to say:  Ever-increasing development costs extremely low initial userbase = millions of lost dollars.

Nintendo is highly unlikely to announce a follow-up to the Wii right now.  They're focus will be entirely on the 3DS and some new Wii games no one cares about.  Besides that, despite having no real third party support, the Wii is still selling really well. 

For that matter, so is are the Xbox360 and PS3.  Everything is going really well for everyone right now.  This is not the time to screw it all up with sudden announcements of new consoles, the 3DS and potential PSP2 notwithstanding.

Natal is only the expensive beta for whatever the real product is, waiting in the wings. Plus Microsoft desperately needs a total rebranding if they stand to compete with Nintendo at all. A new console is a chance at an image refresh that Microsoft and Nintendo could both use. Nintendo needs a new chance with the self-proclaimed hardcore, and Microsoft needs a new chance with everyone else.

The only things Microsoft needed to do to improve themselves with gamers/consumers was improve their customer service for RRoD consoles, and to improve the hardware of the X360 to prevent RRoD issues from being issues.  And they did both of those things, and the X360 is still selling far better than the original Xbox.  As far as I'm concerned, Microsoft convinced me the Xbox360 was very much worth it.  I love the hell out of mine. 

I think Nintendo has almost spent all their chances to gain back the hardcore, and they do little else than straight pandering to the "Nintendo core."  Rather than giving us excellent, core-ready original titles, they just keep rehashing Mario, Metroid, Pokemon, and Zelda.  I'm an idiot, I'm still going to buy Metroid: Other M even though I think it's completely unnecessary, and almost guaranteed to be inferior to the Prime trilogy, and especially Super Metroid (glutton for the Metroid games).  Other M is simply going to be the Resident Evil 5 of the Metroid series.  A quality title that works--basically--but does almost everything wrong.  But if Nintendo actually cared about "core" gamers, they'd give us high quality original titles, and serious sequels to franchises other than "the big 4."  Was Eternal Darkness really the last truly original Nintendo title? 

The hardcore, or serious gamer, has given up on the Wii.  Higher quality sequels to relatively popular "hardcore" games are all selling worse than their predecessors.  Red Steel 2, No More Heroes 2, RE: Darkside Chronicles, etc.  At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if Mario Galaxy 2 sold below standards set by Galaxy 1.  Maybe if Nintendo had bothered keeping a continuous line of the "core" titles going, things wouldn't have fizzled to this level.  They really should have released Disaster and Fatal Frame worldwide over a series of "dry" months to keep serious gamers interested in the Wii.  For that matter, they probably shouldn't have killed Project HAMMER, which is a title I was really interested in. 

For that matter, an Achievement/Trophy system integrated into a firmware update wouldn't hurt things, either.

Poetic lol

You are probably right; they wanted to ship around ~6m 3DS games I believe before the fiscal year ended.

Resident_Hazard said:

I think Nintendo has almost spent all their chances to gain back the hardcore, and they do little else than straight pandering to the "Nintendo core."  Rather than giving us excellent, core-ready original titles, they just keep rehashing Mario, Metroid, Pokemon, and Zelda.  I'm an idiot, I'm still going to buy Metroid: Other M even though I think it's completely unnecessary, and almost guaranteed to be inferior to the Prime trilogy, and especially Super Metroid (glutton for the Metroid games).  Other M is simply going to be the Resident Evil 5 of the Metroid series.  A quality title that works--basically--but does almost everything wrong.  But if Nintendo actually cared about "core" gamers, they'd give us high quality original titles, and serious sequels to franchises other than "the big 4."  Was Eternal Darkness really the last truly original Nintendo title? 

I still think Wii2 will come out in 2011. Now someone pointed out that HD hasn't done much for the industry and your right Miyamoto and Iwata have already said they will not simply make the jump to HD, Iwata stated once Miyamoto comes up with game ideas that the current Wii can't produce then the new hardware will launch. I think that is an excuse but it does confirm Nintendo won't just release a WiiHD.

As for the five year span. The SNES had a six year span if you count Japan but in North America it was five if I'm correct. Nintendo then adopted the five year life cycle for N64 and GameCube. Some point out that N64 and GameCube lacked sales and thats why they only had five year spans. That rings false as to the fact that Nintendo was the most profitable first party during both generations. If your making more money then the competition does marketshare really matter? Nintendo was essentially risking everything by upgrading machines.

If market share really determines when Nintendo launches the next platform. Look at the market share right now. Nintendo is loosing share hand over fist to Sony and Microsoft. Yes Microsoft is also loosing market share to Sony. All the more reason for the NextBox and Wii2. If Nintendo looses too much market share and doesn't get the same Wow when they reveal the next console they are screwed.

If Nintendo indeed waited till the Wii died before launching the next platform who would buy the next platform? Part of the reason PS2 was so popular was it was released at a peak in the PSOnes life span. Everyone loved PlayStation and they ran out to buy PS2. Nintendo pulled an upset with Wii by inticing casuals and non-gamers as well as a hunk of the PS2 market by giving consumers something the competition didn't offer. But reality check, next generation X-Box will offer controls Nintendo and Sony don't offer.

Nintendo will need to release a console during the Christmas 2011 time period. If not their market share will erode and those consumers who bought Wii may not upgrade to Wii2. It is never smart to milk something till its dead! Nintendo will release its next console before its marketshare shrinks too low.