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I still think Wii2 will come out in 2011. Now someone pointed out that HD hasn't done much for the industry and your right Miyamoto and Iwata have already said they will not simply make the jump to HD, Iwata stated once Miyamoto comes up with game ideas that the current Wii can't produce then the new hardware will launch. I think that is an excuse but it does confirm Nintendo won't just release a WiiHD.

As for the five year span. The SNES had a six year span if you count Japan but in North America it was five if I'm correct. Nintendo then adopted the five year life cycle for N64 and GameCube. Some point out that N64 and GameCube lacked sales and thats why they only had five year spans. That rings false as to the fact that Nintendo was the most profitable first party during both generations. If your making more money then the competition does marketshare really matter? Nintendo was essentially risking everything by upgrading machines.

If market share really determines when Nintendo launches the next platform. Look at the market share right now. Nintendo is loosing share hand over fist to Sony and Microsoft. Yes Microsoft is also loosing market share to Sony. All the more reason for the NextBox and Wii2. If Nintendo looses too much market share and doesn't get the same Wow when they reveal the next console they are screwed.

If Nintendo indeed waited till the Wii died before launching the next platform who would buy the next platform? Part of the reason PS2 was so popular was it was released at a peak in the PSOnes life span. Everyone loved PlayStation and they ran out to buy PS2. Nintendo pulled an upset with Wii by inticing casuals and non-gamers as well as a hunk of the PS2 market by giving consumers something the competition didn't offer. But reality check, next generation X-Box will offer controls Nintendo and Sony don't offer.

Nintendo will need to release a console during the Christmas 2011 time period. If not their market share will erode and those consumers who bought Wii may not upgrade to Wii2. It is never smart to milk something till its dead! Nintendo will release its next console before its marketshare shrinks too low.



-JC7

"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer