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Forums - Sony - Why people are overestimating the Wii's life time sales

etuoyo said:
I think people overestimate Wii sales cause it has been selling as well as PS2.
  

Actually is currently selling better than PS2 ( in North America and Japan ).

I think the error that many commit is to compare Wii with PS2 because they have a naive historic vision of VG market ( es : PS2 was the best selling console of last generation, Wii is the best selling console of current generation therefore Wii is similar to PS2 | Wrong ! ).

What must be analyzed is the business model ! From that point of view Wii has a lot of affinities with Nes.

You must remember that in this forum there are users that believed in Wii before it begun to outsell every system (  past system too ... ) because they believe in its business model.

The Revolution is not the Wiimote but the Wii's business model.

Nintendo is trying to change the definition of console gaming and the industry's mechanics. 

 



 “In the entertainment business, there are only heaven and hell, and nothing in between and as soon as our customers bore of our products, we will crash.”  Hiroshi Yamauchi

TAG:  Like a Yamauchi pimp slap delivered by Il Maelstrom; serving it up with style.

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What worries me about this whole discussion is that we can´t discuss things in a neutral way.

I do not defend Nintendo here because I like them, I defend them because it is unlikely the system with the biggest userbase will all of a sudden start to struggle and sell less thant its competitors because it never happened in history.

When people say PS3 sales in Japan will go down to sub 10k in 2008 I defend Sony not because I like them but because it is unlikely Metal Gear and Final Fantasy won´t boost sales and the PS3 has a built-in Blu-Ray player which makes it a good offer.

When people say the Xbox 360 won´t have a chance to sell some units in Japan I defend Microsoft not because I like them but because average Xbox 360 sales have effectively doubled since last year and there are still some good games on the way.

On the other hand I critizice the PSP for having a bad Software : Hardware ratio not because I hate the system but because it is obviously bad for the platform.

I don´t critizise Nintendo for their bad "core games" marketing campaign not because I hate them but because they make a mistake there in my oppinion.

We should really discuss those things with some logical statements and not just our feelings and hopes.

 That way such discussions would be much easier.



Louie said:


Is it so hard to realize the games are the "fad" and not the console? If Halo sells like crazy for 4 months and then dropps of the charts isn´t that the exact definition of "fad"?

Aren´t 99% of our games fads as they sell for some weeks and then drop out of the Top 10?

Isn´t Wii Sports, a title that sold for over a year now, the exact opposite of a fad?


 I totally agree with you as it is something that has been bothering me lately with people saying that Wii Fit will be a fad and that it will find its way to the bottom of the closet in a few months. And Wii Sport is fun for a few hours but then you only get it out once in a while or to show off the Wii to friends.

Huh?? Aren't most games (especially single-player) finding their way on the shelves of Hardcore gamers after a few days/weeks and then forgotten for a long time until you fancy playing them again at which point they are trotted out for a while or to show off the amazing graphics to your friends?How is that different?

 Also you have the double standard of people saying that "the Wii will fail because casual buy it for Wii Sport and won't buy other games because it is enough for them so it is bad for 3rd party because they can't sell games" on one hand but on the other hand then saying that "the Wii is a fad and everybody I know get tired of Wii Sport after a few hours" (let's say 20-30 hours, the average length of other non-rpg games, or 6-8 hours, the length of quite a few recent hardcore titles).

So if people don't get tired of Wii Sport the Wii is doomed but if they do get tired of Wii Sport then it is a fad?!?

 It doesn't occur to them that they might buy more games in the genre they like (casual/party games) like for example Wii Play, Mario Party, Wario Ware, Carnival Games...

Sure they might not be happy because they do not buy old hardcore staples like FPS games but then I guess a lot of RPG players were not happy when more casual players started buying FPS's in droves (e.g. the Halo crowd).

 Also just because these casual players prefer mini/party/casual games doesn't mean that they won't pick up a few more hardcore games once in a while if it takes their fancy, something that they wouldn't do if the casual games had not enticed them into buying a console in the first place.

 

etuoyo said:

this time around wii is so much weaker than the competition that the same can never happen again. there will always be tons of big budget games that can only be made on 360 and ps3 no matter how well wii is selling.


True, but conversely there will be plenty of games that can only be made in the Wii because of the Wiimote, or that would be much better with it. I am sure that if RE5 or another RE4 style RE game came to the Wii that it would be more successful than RE5 on either 360 or PS3 and possibly do better than both combined due to the superior controls (plus the RE series already proved itself on the Wii whereas it hasn't done so on the PS3 or 360).

This schism in the market is good for the PS3/360 as it will allow them to differentiate themselves enough through 360/PS3 only cross-platform games to survive but bad because Wii's sales ensure that a most of this generations's games going forward will appear on the Wii and they are less likely to appear on the 360/PS3 than PS2 games were likely to appear on the GC/Xbox because the hardware is so different and the price to port them competently to HD consoles would probably outweigh the benefit of doing so.


"I do not suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it"

 

"The wii will rule the world"- ioi



 

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Sri Lumpa said:

True, but conversely there will be plenty of games that can only be made in the Wii because of the Wiimote, or that would be much better with it. I am sure that if RE5 or another RE4 style RE game came to the Wii that it would be more successful than RE5 on either 360 or PS3 and possibly do better than both combined due to the superior controls (plus the RE series already proved itself on the Wii whereas it hasn't done so on the PS3 or 360).

More successful maybe, but a better game definitely not.  For all the stuff the Wiimote does, the Wii is still a large step down from the PS3 or even the 360.



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PS-She said:
Sri Lumpa said:

True, but conversely there will be plenty of games that can only be made in the Wii because of the Wiimote, or that would be much better with it. I am sure that if RE5 or another RE4 style RE game came to the Wii that it would be more successful than RE5 on either 360 or PS3 and possibly do better than both combined due to the superior controls (plus the RE series already proved itself on the Wii whereas it hasn't done so on the PS3 or 360).

More successful maybe, but a better game definitely not.  For all the stuff the Wiimote does, the Wii is still a large step down from the PS3 or even the 360.

 


 Not in terms of gameplay, just in terms of graphics, SMG is still the best game on any of the three consoles at the moment, not because of graphics, but because of gameplay



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

i do think wii will be world leader



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

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Avinash_Tyagi said:
PS-She said:
Sri Lumpa said:

True, but conversely there will be plenty of games that can only be made in the Wii because of the Wiimote, or that would be much better with it. I am sure that if RE5 or another RE4 style RE game came to the Wii that it would be more successful than RE5 on either 360 or PS3 and possibly do better than both combined due to the superior controls (plus the RE series already proved itself on the Wii whereas it hasn't done so on the PS3 or 360).

More successful maybe, but a better game definitely not.  For all the stuff the Wiimote does, the Wii is still a large step down from the PS3 or even the 360.

 


 Not in terms of gameplay, just in terms of graphics, SMG is still the best game on any of the three consoles at the moment, not because of graphics, but because of gameplay


Don't forget that (pretty much) everyone praised Resident Evil 4: Wii Edition because of how much of an improvement the controll scheme was over the Gamecube version ...

 



leo-j said:
"The wii will rule the world"- ioi

its true



Avinash_Tyagi said:
PS-She said:
Sri Lumpa said:

True, but conversely there will be plenty of games that can only be made in the Wii because of the Wiimote, or that would be much better with it. I am sure that if RE5 or another RE4 style RE game came to the Wii that it would be more successful than RE5 on either 360 or PS3 and possibly do better than both combined due to the superior controls (plus the RE series already proved itself on the Wii whereas it hasn't done so on the PS3 or 360).

More successful maybe, but a better game definitely not.  For all the stuff the Wiimote does, the Wii is still a large step down from the PS3 or even the 360.

 


 Not in terms of gameplay, just in terms of graphics, SMG is still the best game on any of the three consoles at the moment, not because of graphics, but because of gameplay


yep SMG definitely proves the gameplay>graphics