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Forums - Sales - Pacher Explains Why He Predicts WiiHD Believes Will Will Lose MarketShare

leo-j said:
Metallicube said:

Jesus Christ Patcher.. The average consumer DOES NOT CARE about HD! Do you really think a 14 year old girl or old man buying the Wii is going to be like, you know.. these motion control games are awesome, but I'd REALLY love to play them in HD!


that's why the average consumer is upgrading to HD and why some are even upgrading to 3D HD TVs..


hes just referring to gaming. think about it, the wii would have been a phenominal failure had people cared as much about hd gaming as patcher thinks.



                                                                                                  
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well those people that bought a wii (not including core ninty fans) probably know nothing about the HD consoles other than the fact that they play games.



 

mM
Metallicube said:
Garnett said:
TheSource said:

When I argue about this with him, I just remind him that Nintendo is likely to announce the Wii successor for late 2011 / late 2012 to kill off any momentum Move might be building.

The fact of the matter is a Wii HD starts with a base of "0 Users" as does the PS3 Move base. So an HD Wii is 75-80m behind X360/PS3 if it releases in 2010, and the PS3 base for Move is going to be 75-80m behind Wii when it launches this year


By the time the Wii HD does come out, the PS3 would of already done everything the Wii HD does. (It only does everything!!!)

HD console = PS3

HD format = PS3

Good online service = PS3

Motion controls = PS3

The PS3 MOVE user base may start from Zero but remember, its gonna have a 2-3 year head start, and in 2-3 years the PS3 may be at 50 million plus, so  Move will be accessable to those 50 million current PS3 owners, and all for $100 or less. Compared to the Wii HD which will probably launch at $200-300 and without a decent online service and Blue Ray.

Nintendo is gonna have a problem if Sony decides to Bundle it with EVERY ps3, for one price.

Oh lord.. So many things wrong with this statement.. First of all, Wii HD is NEVER coming. Period. Why? Because Nintendo does not need it, and it would be a foolish business decision to go through with it. Nintendo will release an ALL NEW console (probably in 2012 or later) with new features and that edgy new selling point to keep it ahead of the curve and draw in new gamers, like motion controls and the balance board did w/ the Wii.

Also, Move is not going to do anything to PS3 sales, especially at or near $100. You can't just tack on motion controls to all your games and suddenly draw in all the expanded audience. At the end of the day, it is the type of SOFTWARE that drives hardware sales, not the hardware itself..Keep in mind, many of Wii's best selling titles, such as Wii Fit, NSMB Wii, and Mario Kart Wii, don't even use motion control, or barely do. The root of the Wii's success is NOT motion control, but rather creating new types of games for new types of gamers. Motion control simply helps ENABLE this. I do not see Sony doing this. I only see them making copycat party games and core games with tacked on motion control. This will NOT appeal to little girls or grandpas like Wii does.

Also, answer me this.. If motion control is the big hook that's going to push PS3s and make it competitive to Wii, why did the Sixaxis fail? Was it not ALSO a motion controller? Or is it just magically going to be successful now that the Sixaxis is split in two and shaped sort of like a Wiimote (or a dildo with a light bulb)? Also, why did the PS Eye fail to light up the charts? Isn't it motion control in a sense?

The fact is, that PS3 is still limiting its audience, not with its hardware so much as with its type of games. Only a small consumer base likes these epic cinema style complex games, many with only 1 player. This usually stretches little beyond the 15-30 year old male core gamer. Even me, who is pretty into games, finds it difficult to be intreged by many of PS3's games..

The average consumer simply does not care about HD capabilities, nor do they care about an Xbox live/PC copycat online service. If Sony TRUELY wants to make PS3 competitive to the Wii with Move, they need games that appeal to grandma, soccermoms, and little Johnny. They need to create new genres, that reach out to new audiences.. MGS4 and Demon Souls simply will not achieve this..

Sure PS3 does everything the Wii does.. EXCEPT have Nintendo games, including the most popular series of all time; 2D Mario games. It also does not have games that appeal to the expanded audience like the Wii does, and Sony does not seem to even possess the ability to do this, let alone have any games that do.

1 word. Littlebigplanet 2



leo-j said:

well those people that bought a wii (not including core ninty fans) probably know nothing about the HD consoles other than the fact that they play games.



Or maybe they don't care about the games HD consoles do play. Not all Wii fans are core ninty fans as you call them. HD doesn't matter as much as Pachter believes, and the HD penetration TV wise is still not that great is it?



Bet between Slimbeast and Arius Dion about Wii sales 2009:


If the Wii sells less than 20 million in 2009 (as defined by VGC sales between week ending 3d Jan 2009 to week ending 4th Jan 2010) Slimebeast wins and get to control Arius Dion's sig for 1 month.

If the Wii sells more than 20 million in 2009 (as defined above) Arius Dion wins and gets to control Slimebeast's sig for 1 month.

gurglesletch said:
Metallicube said:
Garnett said:
TheSource said:

When I argue about this with him, I just remind him that Nintendo is likely to announce the Wii successor for late 2011 / late 2012 to kill off any momentum Move might be building.

The fact of the matter is a Wii HD starts with a base of "0 Users" as does the PS3 Move base. So an HD Wii is 75-80m behind X360/PS3 if it releases in 2010, and the PS3 base for Move is going to be 75-80m behind Wii when it launches this year


By the time the Wii HD does come out, the PS3 would of already done everything the Wii HD does. (It only does everything!!!)

HD console = PS3

HD format = PS3

Good online service = PS3

Motion controls = PS3

The PS3 MOVE user base may start from Zero but remember, its gonna have a 2-3 year head start, and in 2-3 years the PS3 may be at 50 million plus, so  Move will be accessable to those 50 million current PS3 owners, and all for $100 or less. Compared to the Wii HD which will probably launch at $200-300 and without a decent online service and Blue Ray.

Nintendo is gonna have a problem if Sony decides to Bundle it with EVERY ps3, for one price.

Oh lord.. So many things wrong with this statement.. First of all, Wii HD is NEVER coming. Period. Why? Because Nintendo does not need it, and it would be a foolish business decision to go through with it. Nintendo will release an ALL NEW console (probably in 2012 or later) with new features and that edgy new selling point to keep it ahead of the curve and draw in new gamers, like motion controls and the balance board did w/ the Wii.

Also, Move is not going to do anything to PS3 sales, especially at or near $100. You can't just tack on motion controls to all your games and suddenly draw in all the expanded audience. At the end of the day, it is the type of SOFTWARE that drives hardware sales, not the hardware itself..Keep in mind, many of Wii's best selling titles, such as Wii Fit, NSMB Wii, and Mario Kart Wii, don't even use motion control, or barely do. The root of the Wii's success is NOT motion control, but rather creating new types of games for new types of gamers. Motion control simply helps ENABLE this. I do not see Sony doing this. I only see them making copycat party games and core games with tacked on motion control. This will NOT appeal to little girls or grandpas like Wii does.

Also, answer me this.. If motion control is the big hook that's going to push PS3s and make it competitive to Wii, why did the Sixaxis fail? Was it not ALSO a motion controller? Or is it just magically going to be successful now that the Sixaxis is split in two and shaped sort of like a Wiimote (or a dildo with a light bulb)? Also, why did the PS Eye fail to light up the charts? Isn't it motion control in a sense?

The fact is, that PS3 is still limiting its audience, not with its hardware so much as with its type of games. Only a small consumer base likes these epic cinema style complex games, many with only 1 player. This usually stretches little beyond the 15-30 year old male core gamer. Even me, who is pretty into games, finds it difficult to be intreged by many of PS3's games..

The average consumer simply does not care about HD capabilities, nor do they care about an Xbox live/PC copycat online service. If Sony TRUELY wants to make PS3 competitive to the Wii with Move, they need games that appeal to grandma, soccermoms, and little Johnny. They need to create new genres, that reach out to new audiences.. MGS4 and Demon Souls simply will not achieve this..

Sure PS3 does everything the Wii does.. EXCEPT have Nintendo games, including the most popular series of all time; 2D Mario games. It also does not have games that appeal to the expanded audience like the Wii does, and Sony does not seem to even possess the ability to do this, let alone have any games that do.

1 word. Littlebigplanet 2



Not sure that's one word..but beyond that, the game may be great but what has it done for PS3 momentum? Which is the job of a first party to begin with. LBP has sold what? 3 million? NSMB sold what 15m? 



Bet between Slimbeast and Arius Dion about Wii sales 2009:


If the Wii sells less than 20 million in 2009 (as defined by VGC sales between week ending 3d Jan 2009 to week ending 4th Jan 2010) Slimebeast wins and get to control Arius Dion's sig for 1 month.

If the Wii sells more than 20 million in 2009 (as defined above) Arius Dion wins and gets to control Slimebeast's sig for 1 month.

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Smashchu2 said:

I don't why they still employ him. He's got to be one someone's payroll.

Who do you think is right: A large corperation which has taken the marketplace by storm or a guy who admits he is wrong a lot?

 


He is on the payroll of his company.  He company makes money by getting investors to buy their research, and forecasts.  By having Pachter around, the company gets their name in the headlines every time someone here posts about him.  The business Pachter is in, isn't about being right... it is about getting people to give you money over and over.  They do this by being in an area that is folly to be competent at, but where there is also desperation for someone to be competent.  In that, as long as you can keep getting them to buy into the words, you keep making money.

What Pachter does is say what investors want to hear, that fits what investors expect to happen, and then backs it up with information that makes it say it is right.  In this are provisos and other clarification points, that let him back out and blame the unexpected for things being so.

As for who has to be right, the large corporation has to.  The guy like Pachter just has to be popular, and say things people like to hear.... and sound educated, like he knows more than most people.



jarrod said:
Garnett said:
jarrod said:
Garnett said:

Chances are Nintendo wont improve the online, because most of their customers dont care about online.

Why would the Wii HD, an Updated version of the Current gen Wii be cheaper? Its going to be more expensive.

As for the Media format,Nintendo goes with their own formats.

They'll improve online incrementally.  At the very least you can probably expect "system wide" friend codes, a decent chat solution and a Club Nintendo centered account/content migration path.  Probably a more expansive DD effort too, and more formats for the Virtual Console (Gamecube, Dreamcast, Saturn, 3DO, etc).

And Nintendo goes with Matsushita's media formats.  And at this point, Blu-ray is more theirs than Sony's even...

They need to do away with the friend codes, the Wii needs to have a mic, it needs some kind of hard drive, at least 5 gigs and as for Blu ray, sure the disc may be Bluray but it wont play Blu Ray movies which negates the move aspect of Blu Ray.

By the time Nintendo does all these things that i mentioned, or even the things youv mentioned, PS3 would of already done it.

I don't think they'll do away with FC entirely, though I do think they'll streamline the system next gen.  3DS will probably give us a good idea of where Wii2 is headed in terms of network infrastructure, transfer and security (though it'll have it's own unique additions, likely a 3G/whisper network).  

Wii2 won't have a HDD though and it probably won't play DVD/BRD movies.  And really it doesn't need either, they'll just add more flash (likely 2GB to 8GB) and use a custom BRD based format for games only.  Technology isn't what sells game systems, games do.  


They need to do away with the FC IMO, Its awful and way too complicated.

Trust me, Wii HD will have a HDD or a storage device, Nintendo learned that people will buy DLC for games, and Nintendos 50 million plus Wii owners would love to buy DLC. That and virtual games are gonna become more important.

 

Technology is what sells game systems, The technology inside the Wii mote sold the Wii, without the Wii mote the Wii wouldn't be anywhere. With better Wii mote technology developers can make better games and they will sell, thus opening up the "hardcore" market for Nintendo.



HD penetration is great, and is increasing greatly as time goes by.. and I really believe the wii's selling point is it's controller, and the way it offers motion gaming and the get up and play mechanic..

I suspect most people view the 360 or ps3 has just gaming machines, like the wii, and say , "The wii has motion games though, so I think it's better" . That's hwat I believe.



 

mM
Metallicube said:

Jesus Christ Patcher.. The average consumer DOES NOT CARE about HD! Do you really think a 14 year old girl or old man buying the Wii is going to be like, you know.. these motion control games are awesome, but I'd REALLY love to play them in HD!


That's why advertising exists.



PROUD MEMBER OF THE PSP RPG FAN CLUB

Garnett said:
TheSource said:

When I argue about this with him, I just remind him that Nintendo is likely to announce the Wii successor for late 2011 / late 2012 to kill off any momentum Move might be building.

The fact of the matter is a Wii HD starts with a base of "0 Users" as does the PS3 Move base. So an HD Wii is 75-80m behind X360/PS3 if it releases in 2010, and the PS3 base for Move is going to be 75-80m behind Wii when it launches this year


By the time the Wii HD does come out, the PS3 would of already done everything the Wii HD does. (It only does everything!!!)

HD console = PS3

HD format = PS3

Good online service = PS3

Motion controls = PS3

The PS3 MOVE user base may start from Zero but remember, its gonna have a 2-3 year head start, and in 2-3 years the PS3 may be at 50 million plus, so  Move will be accessable to those 50 million current PS3 owners, and all for $100 or less. Compared to the Wii HD which will probably launch at $200-300 and without a decent online service and Blue Ray.

Nintendo is gonna have a problem if Sony decides to Bundle it with EVERY ps3, for one price.


sony will probably be gearing a ps upgrade on the market too, but when depends how fast the market reacts.

sony choice of overengineering the ps3 may pay off after all. ps3 it's getting motion control 1-1 and 3d and it got the storage to support great games. 4 dual layer DVD are 200gb.

nintendo will have to find something to capture the market again next gen, nintendo will probably try to milk the wii as much they can, releasing new colors (already starting) and maybe a revision (like they do for the DS )

nintendo was able to get where it's because it was cheap, games didn't look bad considering the specs on the machine at least nintendo crafted games.

ps3 it's more expensive even today ,casuals of course know about graphics, but then when u have tons of family on   SD and the console does the job of keeping the kids busy, wii was obvious choice. but then next gen what will happen? 3d will take off?