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Forums - Sales Discussion - Pacher Explains Why He Predicts WiiHD Believes Will Will Lose MarketShare

Garnett on 08 June 2010
JMan said:
Garnett said:
JMan said:
Garnett said:
JMan said:
Garnett said:


Nintendo wasn't hardcore last gen, they were the same as they are now, its just now they got motion controls.

Casual games wont outsell hardcore games, but casual games with motion controls will.


I don't buy that.  Iwata became the CEO in 2002, long after the gamecube established its failure to gain a large market share (although it was still a profitable venture).  It was Iwata that implemented the Blue Ocean strategy, starting with the DS games.  He mentions this strategy in the Tokyo Game show in 2005 and how they started this with Nintendogs and Brain Age, both which had been recently released and showed great potential already.  He wanted to appeal to an expanded audience by innovating something new that would appeal to more than just trying to be the best graphics.  Then he unveiled the Revolution.

As for "Casual games won't outsell hardcore games" unless they have motion controls I have only this to offer:  Tetris, which has outsold every "hardcore" game there is (even if you just consider gameboy sales and not sales of the same game on all platforms).  With Nintendogs and Brain Age also close, no -- it isn't just about motion controls.  It's about finding the thing that appeals to a broader audience. 

edit:  I will grant that the Nintendo development did games that were 'cartoony', but they were very specifically targetted at gamers whereas games like "Nintendogs", "Wii Sports", "Brain Age", are most definitely not targetted at the same group as Super Mario Sunshine.  Prior to the Blue Ocean strategy, you find few games like those.

1. Gamecube was a flop, because too many casual games and it was the "kitty console", while Xbox was huge and blunky, they flopped while the PS2 was the cool thing back then.

2. Tetris is a arcade game, just like spade is a arcade game, those types of games dont count.

If you want to believe that it is exclusively motion controls added to casual games that make casual games outsell hardcore, that's your choice.  The fact that Tetris, Nintendogs and Brain Age outselling most hardcore despite not having motion controls can all be excluded from your belief by creating whatever rules you want to exclude them.  It doesn't change the fact that casual games CAN outsell hardcore without motion controls.  But that's irrelevant to the topic anyway.

Nintendo's blue ocean strategy wasn't just motion controls.  The motion controls were just one of the outcomes of that strategy, but it isn't the only part.  Their marketing direction changed, their design philosophy changed.  You say they are identical to the Nintendo that created the GC with the exception of motion controls, but that is definitely not true.  From what Patcher said, he thought Nintendo needed an HD because that's just the next logical step (for a Nintendo of the GC era to compete with Sony and Microsoft).  But that's not the new Nintendo, and Patcher is failing to understand that. 

Tetris  a damn card game, DS has touch screen, which is what sells the DS, not Nintendogs nor Imagen babiez.

Nintendo WILL Release a Wii HD eventually, it may not come out for another 4-5 years but its coming. Its would be stupid for Nintendo to abandon the Wii name, which is the best selling Nintendo console EVER. They are gonna name it the Wii HD and there gonna sell it, so that casuals and hardcores can buy it.

Tetris, A card game?  Ok, sure.  I remember tetris as a block game, but continue to build your fantasy.  Anyway, your statement was that casual games don't outsell hardcore, only with motion controls do they and if you look up the sales figures on Nintendogs, Brain Age, and Tetris, I think you'll find exceptions to your absolute rule.

I did not say Nintendo would never release a Wii HD, nor abandon the Wii name.  Patcher kept predicting the Wii within a year or two, and that's been for a long time that he's been predicting it.  Nintendo has flatly stated that they haven't even opened all of the doors on the Wii and they won't be releasing a new console until they can no longer write the games they want to write.  When the technology can no longer cover their requirements, they'll go with a new console.  HD is not yet a requirement for Nintendo to build outstanding games.

Tetris is a card game LOL, i had just woke up :P

But Tetris is one of the first games ever made, its common and it doesnt count.

Again those casual games have a gimmick, with it. You think nintendogs would of sold good on the gamecube? No...

We dont know what Natal or Move will do, so we shouldnt say that Wii HD isnt coming out soon.



*Remember when the world was supposed to end on May 21st, 2011? Well click here to see our short parody video of it [not]ending*

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JMan on 08 June 2010
Garnett said:

Tetris is a card game LOL, i had just woke up :P

But Tetris is one of the first games ever made, its common and it doesnt count.

Again those casual games have a gimmick, with it. You think nintendogs would of sold good on the gamecube? No...

We dont know what Natal or Move will do, so we shouldnt say that Wii HD isnt coming out soon.

Yeah, I figured you meant arcade but I thought it would be funny to call you on it.  Nonetheless, you didn't back up your point that casual games only sell when they have motion controls.  I think what you really meant is that most casual games don't outsell most hardcore games unless they have a gimmick, and with those qualifiers I'd agree.

While exciting, history has shown that accessories don't do as well as the gaming system.  Only a fraction of those who buy end up buying the accessories.  Will they be system sellers?  To a small extent, again also well established by history.



Garnett on 08 June 2010
JMan said:
Garnett said:

Tetris is a card game LOL, i had just woke up :P

But Tetris is one of the first games ever made, its common and it doesnt count.

Again those casual games have a gimmick, with it. You think nintendogs would of sold good on the gamecube? No...

We dont know what Natal or Move will do, so we shouldnt say that Wii HD isnt coming out soon.

Yeah, I figured you meant arcade but I thought it would be funny to call you on it.  Nonetheless, you didn't back up your point that casual games only sell when they have motion controls.  I think what you really meant is that most casual games don't outsell most hardcore games unless they have a gimmick, and with those qualifiers I'd agree.

While exciting, history has shown that accessories don't do as well as the gaming system.  Only a fraction of those who buy end up buying the accessories.  Will they be system sellers?  To a small extent, again also well established by history.

Yeah, that >_<

Casual games only outsell Hardcore games if they have a gimmick, and the only way hardcore games outsell casual games is if they  have a controler.

No hardcore game for Natal is gonna sell 10 million, im calling it now! Unless its bundled.



*Remember when the world was supposed to end on May 21st, 2011? Well click here to see our short parody video of it [not]ending*

thx1139 on 08 June 2010

It is very simple really.

This generation Nintendo cannot add HD gaming to the Wii.
PS3 and 360 will have motion control by the end of 2010.

So if the addition of motion control narrows the difference in sales between the Wii and either the 360 or the PS3 then MS and/or Sony will be satisfied.  If they start selling more then they will be thrilled. Even if at the end the Wii has more sales the addition of motion controls to the PS3 and/or the 360 will be nothing but a success.

Only way for Nintendo to add HD gaming is to release a new console.  That doesnt mean all the casual Wii owners that jumped into gaming for motion control move to the WiiHD.  They may never move or they may look at what else is out when they are ready to move.  Key is that these new game console owners may purchase differently, I expect them to not upgrade to the next gen nearly as quickly as the more traditional gamers.  Not to mention if Sony and/or MS release at about the same time you can be 100% sure that the next Nintendo console wont be as powerful so Nintendo better have something disruptive ready again.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

Albion on 08 June 2010

The Wii dosent need HD

It will keep selling a ton of Black Wii this year and the next.

By 2012 there will be 4 types of Gamers

 

The ones that own a PS3 and a Wii

The ones that own a Xbox and a Wii

The ones that own a PC and a Wii

The ones that will own 1 of the 4 or all of them.

 

The black Wii is  targueting the Core gamers. Obviously

So from now on out Nintendo pumps out exclusive Hardcore Wii games

No true fans can resist. Gameplay>graphics

 

Its already started. Do you know how many PS3 fans are pissed they had to buy a Wii to play

Monster Hunter Tri?(bundled with a Hardcore Controler) Go on the CAPCOM forums you'll see.  Golden Eye anyone?

 

Wii, sell's will not drop. its like everyone is saying the Hardcore is bigger and buy more then the casual.

Wii sells will only go up.

 

If it dosent work Wii will drop Cost. If that dosent work Boot up Next Gen. Wii HD

Wii HD will happen. But only after a set of 3 - 4 things fail or MS or sony move forward.



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Albion on 08 June 2010

He's not  compleatly off. His logic is sound. what hes missing is Nintendo has pre-requisites that need to happen beffor it says Nintendo is ready for HD.

He hasent  aknowlaged that Nintendo has a complex Bizz plan, that will execute only if objectives or failures happen.

If things had worked out diffrently there is no dought in my mind a Wii HD could already be on the market. But seeing how much success Nintendo is having, thats the reason Wii HD is not out and is not planed for the near future.

If the end of 2010 is awful for Nintendo and even cost drop dont fix it.Wii HD will be on shelf at E3 2011.

I dont think thats so complicated to understand. I gess Patcher was thinking Nintendo will nose dive. I dont think so but. I see it moving forward steady. More PS3 or Xbox selling cause they have movment controls will not stop Wii from selling,

The casual userbase that will buy a Ps3 or a Xbox for its new move controls will already have a Wii in the house, and is no longer who Nintendo is targueting with its hardware sells. Black Wii anyone?



thx1139 on 08 June 2010
Albion said:

The casual userbase that will buy a Ps3 or a Xbox for its new move controls will already have a Wii in the house, and is no longer who Nintendo is targueting with its hardware sells. Black Wii anyone?

So who will buy a Wii.  Clearly MS and Sony believe there is still a signifigant amount of people that are willing to purchase a console that has motion controls.  So if they offer up a console that has both motion controls and a far larger contingent of hardcore games at a similiar cost could sway additional customers to thier consoles.  A kay part of competion in the marketplace is to negate the competitors advantage.  All consoles have good games only Wii has motion controls.  Only Wii has fitness games (with Wii board selling to like 50% of Wii owners it seems each week).  At the end of 2010 Wii will lose at least one of those advantages I suspect 2.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

Squilliam on 08 June 2010

Bah, can't get it to embed.



Tease.

Albion on 08 June 2010

Most of the folks that will buy the Motion controls will be

A: existing userbase so they dont have to buy a Wii

B:Wii owners that want to upgrade to HD

Nintendo Will create a Hardcore must have titls for Group A

Nintendo already has a Wii incide of B's household and is creating hardcore Wii only titles for them to buy on the wii.

And Wii will sell on its low cost high value gameplay With the help of must own Titles no true hardcore gamer could pass on to keep its sell's going from now on. Post Move/Natal.  In othere words Nintendo will do what it dos best Good software to keep it going on the hardware chartz.

 

Looks like Nintendo knows exacly what to do. If that fails Patcher gets his Wii 3DHD.

 

I dont see Wii failing anytime soon though. Im sure they plan to support it until 2018. Thats my gess. They have a plan to have a Wii HD 3D  to go alongside with the Wii. When we see that? depends on a few things.

 

A: If Nintendo Has a Wii in 100% of its targuet audience house (in other words if they sell a wii to almost everyone it saw as a potential buyer)  Results in Wii 3D HD launch

B:Wii loses all intrests no one buys hardware for a sustained time. Results in Wii 3D HD launch

 

I dont think any of that will  happen untill  the end of 2012 mabe 2013 even. But No one Knows for sure.

But even if They launch Wii 3DHD they will still support Wii with good software for a long time.

 

Cheers!



Smashchu2 on 08 June 2010
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Smashchu2 said:
 

You do not understand disruption.

Nintendo is not the incumbent. The incumbent is the market leaders of sustaining innovations. They control the market. The disruptor is the one with the disruptive innovation who plans to cut up market and take over the makret. Nintendo's goal, as a disruptor, is to make Sony and Microsoft gone.

Nintendo can very well hurt the HD twins by taking away customers from Sony and Microsoft. Motion Plus was announced before Microsoft's conferese. Reggie talking a lot about attacking at E3 09. Zelda will be a key to moving upmarket. But ask yourself: Why are Sony and Microsoft making motion controls. They had no interest in the new market before, what makes you think they want to make inroads now. They really don't, but they have to stop Nintendo or Nintendo will take over their market. Heck, Speilberg's speach at E3 09 during Microsoft's conference was ver batem, the same as Reggie's in 06.

In other words, Nintendo is making the Wii remote better and making more indepth games which will take customers some Sony and Microsoft. These customers don't like the standard Wii Remote, but they may like motion plus as it is better, and closer to their demand (the higher the tier, the more demanding the consumer). Nintendo will make deeper games based on the new values (feel over sight) and will make inroads upstream.

And, I'll write it again: next gen nothing can grant Nintendo will be able to release something with the same disruptive potential of Wii, surrendering to Wii2/Zii/Whatever without fighting and before even knowing what it will be and whether it will be successful or not doesn't make sense at all, it's just the wet dream of Sony and MS haters. And maybe of Steve Jobs.

This paragraph makes no sesne. You never say why Nintendo can not release a disruptive console again. Why can't they? Why would they make a Wii 2? It makes no sense and you never say why.

Remember this: So long as Nintendo is disrupting, the end result will be the same and Sony and Microsoft will be made gone. This is why they have motion controls. To fight Nintendo. But usually, it is the disruptor (Nintendo) who will win. E3 2010 is the turning point of the industry. Either they stop Nintendo now or Nintendo will goar them.

So Alby has no idea of what he is talking about, but mai gets it. He has been right so far.

Not.

I understand disruption, but I don't adore it like a divinity.

And I must not prove Nintendo won't be disruptive a second time in a row because I just didn't state that, can't you read? I just wrote that nothing can grant it, it's quite different. Giving to my words a wrong meaning to prove your point proves yourself wrong, not me.

Usually the disruptor wins. Usually doesn't equal unerringly. And even this high likelyhood needs the disruptor to keep on devising and following the right strategies (and developing and releasing the right products!) to be achieved.

So there are still a lot of doubts. And E3 2010 will remove a lot of them, but not them all.

Seeing as you think Nintendo is the incumbent, I think otherwise.

Nintendo is described as a disruptor becuase they are disrupting the industry with a disruptive innovation (the Wii Remote). Listen to Scott Anthony yourself, a co-author for disruption. He pretty much lays out disruption for the video game market and implies that Nintendo is a disruptor, and Sony is an incumbent (..."new-market disruption" which targets customers who have needs that were previously unserved by existing incumbents.... Wikipedia)

What your doing is saying you know something, but not showing it. You also "claim" you know a lot about the counter attack, but you don't give any real evidence of it or say what will happen (anyone can say disruption will end if they abandon the strategy, DUH).

And I must not prove Nintendo won't be disruptive a second time in a row because I just didn't state that, can't you read? I just wrote that nothing can grant it, it's quite different. Giving to my words a wrong meaning to prove your point proves yourself wrong, not me.

And, I'll write it again: next gen nothing can grant Nintendo will be able to release something with the same disruptive potential of Wii, surrendering to Wii2/Zii/Whatever without fighting and before even knowing what it will be and whether it will be successful or not doesn't make sense at all, it's just the wet dream of Sony and MS haters. And maybe of Steve Jobs.

And you never say why they can't. It's not that your saying they can't, your saying there is a possibility they can't. The difference is actually that one is an assirtive claim and the other one is walking on eggs shells as not to be wrong. In order to say what you did, you must also be able to say "Nintendo can't make a disruptive products," half of "Nintendo could make a disruptive product or they could not make a disruptive products." Which, when broken into two sentenses is "Nintendo can make a disruptive product." and "Nintendo can not make a disruptive product."

Confused? Well, what it is saying is that you must beleive that both can be true, so you also saying they can't make another disruptive product. So, I ask again, why can't they.

Now, since you claim you know so much let's put it to the test: How the the counter attack work? How will Nintendo avoid beeing beated by Sony and Microsoft, and how could Sony and Microsoft beat Nintendo? If you know disruption, you can answer this question.