This is going to be a simple thread.

You answer YES or NO. And justify your response as to why you think it will or wont make that mark.

Lets just go over a few things before we get people to start making predictions.

What is required?
- Wii is currently ~15 million.
- This means Wii needs to sell ~5 million in 5 weeks.
- This means it needs to sell 1 million a week.


Stock?
- What do we know so far?
- Nintendo states that they have been producting 1.8 million a month since August. So September, October, November, December = 1.8 million each.
- 1.8 x 4 = 7.2 million produced since then.
- In that time they've sold 3.3 million.
- This leaves 3.9 million plus whatever they stockpiled and had left over from August Production (which is speculated at 1.4 million).
- I think they probably do have enough stock, if not enough it will be close.

November vs December?
- In november this year they sold 1.4 million TOTAL WW.
- Can this multiply by 3.5 times in December?
- DS Sold 2 million last November WW
- DS Sold 4.5 million last December
- his is an increase of 2.25 December over November

My opinion?

NO

It'll hit 18.5 - 19 million this year. Nintendo will far surpass their projections of 17.5 million by the end of the financial year and will have reached 20 - 21 by then.  I calculated above 1.8 million produced per month and included december, but I don't think those 1.8 million produced can get into stores within December.

NO.

It's too much for such a short time. I'd say close to 19M 2007 and 20M in January.

NO.

Reasons above, plus needs to stockpile for launches in places like China, South Korea, etc. Small potatoes compared to places like US, but when it's this close, this is a factor to consider.

I couldve sworn there was this exact thread a couple days ago. And the answer is no. Supply will not be great enough. There is no way Nintendo can provide 1 million consoles per week for the next 4 straight weeks.

EDIT: http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=10797   I didnt think my memory was failing me.

Yea-no. It depends ultimately on what the japanese will do come 1st december. I wish that it would, but being a realist, i'd say that 18,5-19 million is more probable. If they keep up with sales like last week (little chance, but always a chance) then they will sell 3,5 million units till new year. We have to keep an eye on Europe and Japan though, as these territories will be key to year end sales for the Wii.

No. Japan is hurting the world wide sales. Japan needs to hit atleast 250k/week trough december. We will se next week Wiifit sales but I donk think Japan can manage that much. I guess 18.5m-19m WW.

I am confused by this statement, their projection was just for the financial year, so they expect to have sold (retail) 23.34 million Wii by then, if you expect they will surpass their expectations and sell 20-21 million for the financial, then you must think they will have sold 25.84-26.84 million life to date before April.

Either you are confusing the meaning of Nintendos projection (which is to have 23.3 million life to date before April) or you think they will sell a hell of a lot of Wiis in the Jan-March quarter.

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oh. my guess. NO

but they will definately pass 19 million, and probably end up closer to 20 than 19.
I also think they will surpass their projetion of 17.5M for the financial, by about 500k (thus a life to date of nearly 24 million (retail remember) before April (that is approximately 4.5 million sold in that first quarter

NO

will hit 17 million or less or slightly above it, not going to make it to 18 million.

No, I think supply constraints will hit at somewhere in the 18-19 mil range.