axumblade said:
I was going to argue that it's a holiday weekend but taking that in account that it'll probably end up with about $36-7 million its first weekend. Adding in about $5-7 million for it's Tuesday-Thursday sales. Then a grim 60+% drop will probably give it an end around where you stated (although I do predict it will end up a little over). The international box office could help redeem it (which is what seems to be happening). |
25%/75% split in USA / Int'l receipts is a big difference, and pretty unusual with notable exceptions. More usual is 40/60 and I would expect it to settle in around that sort of ratio. If it stays the way it is and USA it manages to crawl to $70 million then it's on track for a WW gross of $280 million. That sort of WW gross is OK, but it will still require solid DVD / BR sales for the movie to make a profit for the studio. From what I've seen poorly reviewed movies that end up doing well at the box office rely heavily on the US market to achieve good grosses (again Transformers is a good example). So I'm not really expecting the Int'l box office to redeem this movie. Though I hope it redeems Robin Hood.
With a budget of $200 million it'd need to make at least $400 million at the box office for a sequel to be assured. I don't see that happening.
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