I would think it would have a shot...

What will be the big selling PS3 exclusives in Americas? Just God of War 3 and Gran Turismo 5. I think both will sell in the 1-1.5 million range. Other than that you have Heavy Rain, 3D dot Heroes, Modnation Racers, MAG, and Socom Move. I think those all sell maybe 300k.

If you add it all up Reach probably needs to sell 5-6 million to beat every PS3 exclusive. I think that's possible. Halo 3 did that. Reach should do more. It will have 4 months to sell also.

Am I missing something or way off base?

I'm assuming Resistance 3 will not be announced for this fall, and that The Last Guardian wont make it either. Especially the latter prediction seems very safe.

BTW I'm not really counting Move games in this though, since none have been announced and it's too much of a wildcard. Just hardcore titles. Socom counts though.

It's possible... But gran turismo is a wild card, so this too is a wild guess. And I believe resistance will be a 2010 game. So that may affect the numbers too.

Its possible... However i still have my doubts. I dont think Reach will sell as much as alot of people think it will. but thats just my opinion

We are all entitled to our own opinions, and I am entitled to vehemently disagree with those opinions!!

I'd be shocked if it did'nt do that.

Well if you add Gran Turismo which can possibly sell 4+ million in America alone. Not only that but there are like 161 PS3 exclusives so f no!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category%3APlayStation_3-only_games

I know its Wikipedia, but I counted them just to make sure, there's no way one game could outsell that many games

Edit: if you're only counting the big selling titles then its possible, but Gran Turismo alone has a chance to outsell Halo: Reach so I doubt that.

I only mean exclusives released in 2010, not back catolgue titles.

Also you're crazy if you think GT5 is going to sell 4m in 2010 just in America! I think it will sell 1-1.5 million. 1m Nov 500k Dec or something like that. Maybe 2 million as there are more PS3's around these days.

You're basically looking at maybe 2m there and 2m for GOW3 as the big two I'm thinking.

hmm.. so Halo Reach against GoW3, GT5, LBP2, HR, 3DDGH, MAG, Socom4 and MLB10 in americas in 2010.. (sales by the end of calendar year 2010?)

that might be a pretty good match up, but I think the PS3 exclusives will win this

I think your underestimating GT way way too much ;) Just saying might wanna be ready for a surprise

I'm assuming you mean this year, so far we have:

God of War 3 1.5
Heavy rain 0.54
MAG 0.50
White Knight Chronicles 0.18
Yakuza 3 0.10
MLB 2010: The Show 0.41

They add up to 3.23, these games are obviously going to keep selling until Reach is released.
I also didn't include any of the smaller niche titles like 3D Dot Game Heroes.

With SOCOM 4, Gran Turismo 5, Eye Pet, Little Big Planet 2, Modnation Racer's and some unannounced games releasing this year, then Reach would have to sell much more than 5 - 6 million to beat them all.