PS3 is the console with more third party support, and Microsoft is running out of possible price cuts (without a new version of Xbox360)...I recongnize it is more likely that PS4 will come out in 2012, but actually PS3 is the console wich looks to be able to sell constantly for the most time. The only way Nintendo could push Wii sales again is with price cuts (and that would cut too much in Wii's profitability), big million sellers to new customers (new hardcore IP) or new versione, Wii Plus/Wii HD (I believe Nintendo won't do what Pachter wants anyway).

IMHO Sony will still lose money this year because Microsoft will cut the price and they will do the same just not to loose marketshare...and this would work, the PS3 will take the Xbox360 sometimes in 2011. Then it'll be extremely difficult for MS to retake the spot, but I expect this gen to end with little difference (less than 5 millions) between the 2 consoles...free to disagree :)

The PS3 is currently on track to overtake the 360 before the end of 2011.

So one would have to believe that Natal will save the day for MS, or that a significant price drop is due in 2010 to think otherwise.

If MS announced their annual projections, it would be a pretty simple affair to see where they themselves predict the gap will be in the same time frame.

As for any claims that "the generation ends as soon as someone releases a new console": ridiculous. It ends when the last man standing ceases production and support.

You don't win a race by dropping out prematurely and then claim victory because you were ahead before you quit and your opponents passed you.

Totally agree that it will be decided this year but don't agree it favours the PS3.

If people try and cut their biasedness aside and think how has the pattern this gen gone?

360 cheaper sells loads

PS3 gets a price cut sells loads

360 gets a price cut sells loads

PS3 gets a price cut sells loads

That has been the natural cycle of this gen.

The PS3 will not be getting a price cut anytime soon. It was only half a year ago from the last one and the division that houses the PS3 just released their results, posting over $800m loss. We have mix reports about if the PS3 is making profit or not. But we will take a report that was out saying it is making single digit profit. That is good, profit is after all profit. But that could be $1 or $9. Meaning any price cut will likely see the PS3 return to making a loss. So if Sony do cut the PS3 it will be minimal, maybe $25. Not much to make a difference.

Where as the 360 has sat at it's current price for 2 years almost. We know Microsoft are making a lot of money on the 360 because in the NPD for April comments they said they made over $200m in the US alone for that month. Add to that the 360 sales have actually been consistent in US. In the NPD for April they were the only console to actually be up on yoy sales.

So 360 is about to price cut, it is obvious. The question is by how much? I think we will see at the least a $50 drop. But if i have to predict i think we will see it go to £99 in europe and $139.99 in US. It could of course match the recent PS3 price cut by $100, but i find that unlikely due to it would then just be $99. If the 360 is already above the PS3 weekly it does not take a genius to work out that it will obviously get a boost from the price cut and increase it's gap over the PS3.

The last battle ground for this gen is Europe. 360 sales have started to slow down there bigtime. While PS3 sales have also started to decline by around 5k a week acording to VGC numbers. But the gap will remain at around 10k-15k per week if things remained the same. Of the current gap 8k of the gap comes from "other" in others section. Which is nearly 50% of the total gap. Anyone who has read my posts will know i don't trust those numbers as they seem more of guesstimation because how can you track numbers in countries that have strict sales laws and some even having strict gaming laws i.e china? A lot of these places don't even have the traditional walk into a shop high street we all have. So personally i don't think you can read to much into those figures and thus in my view the gap is maybe around 5k-8k less per week. 

Europe will be where this Gen is won or lost. Which leads to game potential. Of Sony's future games GT5 is massive there, especially here in UK. You can expect great sales for it. But beyond that it is hard to see them getting so hyped for games like Resistance 3,Killzone 3. Gears of War sold more in europe then their two previous versions combined. You have to assume history will repeat itself for the 3rd time with GOW3.

I am of the opinion those people who want a console now have one. There are very few people wanting either console who are waiting for specific games. We are at 140m consoles combined which is a vast amount. I think now the battle is for PS3 and 360 to convert some of the Wii owners into multiplatform owners.

Which brings me onto Natal/Move. Natal is receiving huge hype. Alot of industry insiders think it has the potential to change a lot of things. To remove some of the limitations that playing a game can have. It is so big it has it's own conference at E3. What happens there will play a massive part in the future sales potential for the 360. If people come away not impressed then it won't change much. If people come from there blown away then it has the potential to shift a lot more hardware.

Move on the other hand is just another motion controller. The hype around it is little and the buzz not so great. In fact at Penny Arcade Expo (PAX) they ran a poll of gamers asking what they were interested in most. Only 15% said Move. Now if gamers say that what chance has the non hardcore going to game shows people going to say? We will see. But you have to say chances are very high that people see Move as just another add-on for the PS3 while people see Natal as this whole new thing with a lot of potential.

So in short personally i think we will see the 360 price cut in the next month or so. Maybe announced at E3. Regardless of Natal/Move/Games that will boost sales to back above PS3 sales. With no PS3 price cut the PS3 numbers will continue to decline such is how sales work.

This trend will continue until the next gen starts which will be around 2-3 years you would expect.

So no i don't think PS3 can get to 2nd place. A lot depends on it maintaining it's current sales while also keeping 360 at it's current sales. That won't happen. When 360 cuts it will sell a lot of consoles. Recouping the gains PS3 made on it. If the 360 is at just £99 it will sell like hot cakes. A £250 console will not be able to compete with that.

I think PS3 can get second. We might find out this holiday with Natal vs. PSMove.

I still think it does. We really don't know how much a pricecut would do for the Xbox. We really don't know how much impact Natal will have, if any. All we know right now is that the PS3 has a huge momentum lead over the Xbox, and that it's playing it safe with that momentum. Thus, while the Xbox has to do something to turn the tide, the PS3 only has to keep doing what it's currently doing. In short, the Xbox has yet to turn the tide, while the PS3 did that last autumn. And the PS3 was relatively young when the Slim came out, while the Xbox has had a lot more time on the market, and thus public opinion of it is harder set and more difficult to change.

Really, it all boils down to the impact of Natal. There is nothing else really happening that can change substantially right now. Pricecuts can't do all that much in the long run.

(btw, I read your excellent post, and I agree with most points in it, except I don't believe in a $99 xbox this year)

yes, but5 by then the new Xbox will be out and Nintendo will be touting Wii HD. So it won't matter

Xbox is a shooter platform, its flag title is Halo
Wii is family friendly platform, its flag title is Wii + any title and Mario

M$ shot its own feet when it let Bungie go, simple as a shot to the head. Halo Reach will be the swan song, and it would sell millions in the launch day.

And no, both Natal and Move would not even have a quarter of Wii success. Nothing say family and fitness like Nintendo

And Sony, with a multi gaming profile ranging from latest 3D shooters, MMORPG, platform for games, JRPG heaven, Blu-ray player and real driving simulator will have a much longer lasting life post Halo Reach.

The rest is history.

It's possible. 360 should bounce back this fall momentum wise though (Reach, Natal, slim, 1st real price drop since 2008). We'll have a better idea of if/when in early 2011.

Again as I've stated the past times this question has been asked: This depends on the impact of Natal, Move and if MS can either pack in Natal with their consoles or outright cut the price again. Also the 360 Slim would help move units to.

If Natal has no effect then the PS3 will be ahead by next Spring/Summer.

Wow, you just never stop that trolling of the 360 do ya?