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Forums - General Discussion - So... how about that Tea Party?

Opa-Opa said:
Um the Tea Party adopted the whole grassroots, libertarian ideals from the Ron Paul campaign and twisted them into some Neo-conservative, dogamatic perversion.

Their followers are idiotic: as evident by their self-appointed leader, Sarah Palin.

For the most part, that's my opinion of the Tea Party haha.  Bunch of angry people that know nothing about the actual libertarianism.  Say most of them are just a bunch of sheep rahter than those that actually hold any idea principle above others. 



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pichu_pichu said:
Sqrl said:

Yeah I know right?

When the pro-life, anti-health-care, anti-cap-and-trade, pro-gun, democrat wins in blue PA it sure is a sign that the conservative brand is going to be in trouble in the general election .....  Democrats moving to the right and winning aren't exactly an endorsement of their chances in November given the current climate and perceptions.  Things may change on both counts, but you can't give a serious analysis of a race without actually considering what the candidates ran on.  If it takes a conservative democrat to win in an already blue territory don't you think any stemming of losses in November will come at the expense of moving those seats to the right anyways?  Even if it is less than if they had lost?

As for the difference in votes, it's pretty basic that  participation in primary voting is far from being a primary indicator of true voter enthusiasm, the breakdowns in party participation simply don't hold in the general.  I'm really not sure how you thought this was anything but a non sequitur.

Who knows, maybe you're right, maybe things won't go so well for the republicans in November, but your reasoning for it here is closer to wishful thinking than reality.

Since it's a slight conservative district, it's pretty sure that the Democrat will have some conservative beliefs as well like many other right blue areas. Since this election happened, I still think Republicans won't be taking as much seats as they have hoped to have. Also, PA 12 isn't really a 'true' blue district since McCain had won it, and it still went Democrat. Burns was really endorsed by the right, even the almighty blue-turnin'-red Scott Brown came. FL 19, NY 23, CA 10, CA 32, IL 5... special elections before this was all won by Democrats. In 1994, it was the other way around with red districts winning consecutively. So, I don't really see Republicans really winning BIG this November like it happened in '94 if they couldn't win PA 12. Sure, Dems might lose some seats, but just not a lot.

 

OT: Me thinks the Tea Party will affect Republicans more than Democrats by introducing more libertarians, I get what they're rallying for, and I respect that. 

Some conservative beliefs sure, but the guy was practically running on a fresh print-off of a Republican party platform flier as it was.  I think Critz is further to the right than Scozzafava was in NY22 (the RNC endorsed candidate there), but that it is even close at all is quite telling. 

Add to that a nationally spotlighted democratic senatorial primary that undoubtedly bolstered Critz's turnout (and arguably by more than he won), and I really think you guys are seeing what you want to see here.  Of course I was saying the same thing about Republicans a week ago when they were feeling confident they were going to win the seat.....there is a reason Murtha held it for as long as he did in spite of his record being somewhat at odds with the "slight conservative" bent of that district.

 



To Each Man, Responsibility

Rand Paul as the standard bearer of the teabaggers?  Ok.

You have every right to refuse to admit ANYONE into your home but the law/Constitutional guarantees DON'T end at your property's edge.

This guy's a fucking idiot.

 



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Kasz216 said:
sieanr said:

Hahaha

The tea party has an inflated sense of self worth. They may claim that they represent the silent majority, or some such nonsense, but they don't.



http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/04/14/us/politics/20100414-tea-party-poll-graphic.html?ref=politics

NYtimes is a horrible polling group compared to the ones i've posted.  Gallup & Raussermin.

I'd trust Gallup over a NYTimes/CBS poll anyday.

Heck, just by compairing the two's methods you can see why the NYtimes poll sucks.

Rasmussen is nothing more than right-wing propoganda.

More damning charts here.

If you don't believe it then prove it wrong.



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NinjaguyDan said:
Kasz216 said:
sieanr said:

Hahaha

The tea party has an inflated sense of self worth. They may claim that they represent the silent majority, or some such nonsense, but they don't.



http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/04/14/us/politics/20100414-tea-party-poll-graphic.html?ref=politics

NYtimes is a horrible polling group compared to the ones i've posted.  Gallup & Raussermin.

I'd trust Gallup over a NYTimes/CBS poll anyday.

Heck, just by compairing the two's methods you can see why the NYtimes poll sucks.

Rasmussen is nothing more than right-wing propoganda.

More damning charts here.

If you don't believe it then prove it wrong.

I don’t know about you, but it seems to like Rasmussen has done amazing job at matching the trend present for President Obama’s approval rating. At the same time, with how much talk there has been from political pundits (on networks like CNN) about how the Democrats are headed for trouble in November, Rasmussen’s generic congressional ballot does not look that out of whack.

With that said, it is important to remember that you should pay attention to the trends represented from polls and not their absolute value because different pollsters’ methodologies will change the value of a poll. In the case of Rasmussen, it is highly likely that his strategy for determining "Likely Voters" tends to make his results more "conservative" than other pollsters; but this doesn’t (necessarily) mean that his polls are any less correct than the polls of other pollsters.

 

 

 

 

With that said, the real thing I wanted to point out on this thread was that, with the exception of a lower support from Black Americans (who still have an insanely high approval rating for Obama) the Tea Party movement’s demographics are pretty representative of America in general:

 



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NinjaguyDan said:
Kasz216 said:
sieanr said:

Hahaha

The tea party has an inflated sense of self worth. They may claim that they represent the silent majority, or some such nonsense, but they don't.



http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/04/14/us/politics/20100414-tea-party-poll-graphic.html?ref=politics

NYtimes is a horrible polling group compared to the ones i've posted.  Gallup & Raussermin.

I'd trust Gallup over a NYTimes/CBS poll anyday.

Heck, just by compairing the two's methods you can see why the NYtimes poll sucks.

Rasmussen is nothing more than right-wing propoganda.

More damning charts here.

If you don't believe it then prove it wrong.

Rasmussen is usually on the low end of the aggregate.

However, in the same breath, NYTimes polling is the exact opposite. They've always had Obama's approval rating much higher than average. Dare I say, they are further off than Rasmussen is. If you'd like me to make a chart similar to the one you've provided, I gladly will.

I'll give you a precursor to a chart, though - NYT has never had Obama in the red. They have had one poll where he was +1% of the 10 times they've done polls on Obama....Despite the fact that Obama has had an aggregate rating of between -1% and 4% since December.

 

 



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

NinjaguyDan said:
Kasz216 said:
sieanr said:

Hahaha

The tea party has an inflated sense of self worth. They may claim that they represent the silent majority, or some such nonsense, but they don't.



http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/04/14/us/politics/20100414-tea-party-poll-graphic.html?ref=politics

NYtimes is a horrible polling group compared to the ones i've posted.  Gallup & Raussermin.

I'd trust Gallup over a NYTimes/CBS poll anyday.

Heck, just by compairing the two's methods you can see why the NYtimes poll sucks.

Rasmussen is nothing more than right-wing propoganda.

More damning charts here.

If you don't believe it then prove it wrong.

Ok... how about instead of comparing it to other polls.... you compare it to reality

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2004/state_by_state_actual_results_vs_rasmussen_reports_polls

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf

 

Rausserman.... #1 in accuracy in both the 2004 and the 2008 Election.

 

What your doing is comparing Vgchartz japan numbers to Famtisu and Media Crate... what I'm doing is comparing them to the actual numbers.

When you combined the two together... Rausmmeran #1 in accuracy + right bias vs other polls... that = Most polls are incorrectly biased leftwing.

 

If you don't believe it... prove it wrong.  Since, you know... I proved you wrong.



FYI, the reason for the difference in numbers between Rasmussen and other polls is because their poll requires 100% of respondents stating if they want, or don't want, something. Other polls usually have a 'not sure' category.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Well that was a short-lived assault on Rasmussen =P



To Each Man, Responsibility

....When your citing DailyKos for valid information, you are pretty much asking for it. Its like the Fox News of left-wingers.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.