You are completely full of it if you think the Wii alone will get anywhere near 250 million sold.

My point regarding the production increases is that they've already decided what the numbers will be and have already arranged for materials, components and facilities to meet those numbers. Unless sales extend far beyond their projections for 2008, they will not be announcing a huge percent increase over current production or current future production rates that have already been arranged.

Hardware sales in Japan are projected to drop off again slightly from last week, which was indicative of the overall WW drop in sales. Japan is a good indicator of where global sales are headed and I suspect we will see similar drops both in NA and Others.

There is no point in increasing production beyond what Nintendo has already decided if we continue to see normal sales (for this time of the year) falling under current 1.8m/month production rates. But again, there isn't much point in interpreting Jan-Feb sales figures into the rest of 2008 until Nintendo releases their Mar financial report.

The thing to note about the report is that it has no actual bearing on hardware unit sales, only production rates. Nobody is waiting for Nintendo's financial report to decide whether they're going to buy a $250 game player. Who it matters to are the current and potential shareholders.

You're just completelty deluded!!! You're entire analysis is based on the thinking that what is happening now and over the last year is not indicitive of reality and that its about to magically change and the PS family will stop selling next week and the Wii will suddenly treble its sales.

Your most severe delusion is your opinion of the PS...You think the PS2 will sell 10 million more world wide maximium ever!!!?? Oh please "take a bet" & put that in your signature, pretty please! The PS2 sold 5 million units last year alone without even counting Europe & Others. Its going to sell a lot more than 10 million over the next 8 years. You say its dying off, yes it is.....But to put it in perspective, lets look at the 2007 US software totals of the Wii and this "dead" console.... Wii software = 37 million, PS2 software = 36 million. I guess you have some magic excuse as to why the numbers dont represent whats actually happening in that case too.

And the PS3 will sell 30 million more in that time period? As much as I would like that to happen, thats just RAVING INSANITY. Thats 312,000 a month on average for the next 8 years. For this month - which is 2 weeks in - we're up to 420,000 already but I  guess thats all about to suddenly change?

To sum up: I think Mr Miamoto could become elected president of earth and your predictions still wouldnt come true. 

500 million lol

Anyways, I like your style John. You are bold but you always explain yourelf, and you don't care one bit that some people think you are crazy.

About your predictions, I think you fail to see how conservative a company like Nintendo is. Like you said, this is all new to them and I don't think they can actually quite allow themelf to fully believe just what kind of beast they have on their hand here. I think production will ramp up too slowl for your predictions for units sold to be able to come true.

 Hardware sales are going to drop off in the next few months of course but this isn't the period to look at to judge sales, wait until after march to see where sales go, and the fact that Nintendo wants to have stock for next winter, they will up production after march for those reasons

You do realize that PS3 is going to start to level off and decline after next year and its undertracking the PSP by a good margin, 30 million more is being generous, and PS2 is already in decline, maybe another year to two years of decent sales, but it won't sell as much as last year this year and will drop off pretty fast, so the PS family definetly wont be over 300 million by 2015, so my prediction is definelty possible.

Not at all, its demographics are much wider than any previous console and its already broken nearly every sales record even with constrained supply, it is very likely that it will become as ubiquitous  as the Ipod, possibly even more sold due to its more mass market price and single hardware setup, no need to worry about which one has a bigger hard drive or can play DVD's etc.

300 million sales for a console? It's hard to see it happen. It looks 'doable' now (31 million every year is in wii's league) but I don't think it will be selling that amout every year in 3 to 4 years. Also the PS3 is going to get pretty big games in 2008/2009 and in a eventual price-cut (sony knows it has to do it again sometime in the upcoming years) it will sell pretty good. As for the Wii? I'm surprised no-one is mensioning the consoles life-cycle. Nintendo can 'gameplay over graphics' all they want but in the next two years it's really going to show. Casuals will continue to buy it but they must also think of there already established hardcore crowd. A Wii2 will be coming for them before 8 years and that will surely hurt the origineel wii sells because they will be similiar.

 if that were true we'd have stuck to the gaming PC instead of the NES, the gaming PC when NES launched was 16 Bit, a gen ahead, but instead NES, won. graphics don't matter to the end user.  NES lasted 20 years in Japan, I fully expect Wii to last at least 10.

Also PS3 may be able to price cut, but so what Wii can price cut as well, plus PS3 doesn't appeal to most of the population and the games on PS3 appeal to the same hardcore gaming group.  Wii is no where needing a price cut yet, probably not for a year, year and a half, and yet sales will rocket once price drops, PS2 sold the vast majority for its consoles for under $200.  The only reason people think 300 million is out of reach is becauseconsole makers did a great job of restricting the market to the 13-35 male demographic, it hasn't outgrown that, in fact Son y made that group their primary focus and as a result the market is led to believe that only 150 million is the max a console can get, when in fact there are millions and millions of people outside that demographic

"You do realize that PS3 is going to start to level off and decline after next year and its undertracking the PSP by a good margin, 30 million more is being generous, and PS2 is already in decline, maybe another year to two years of decent sales, but it won't sell as much as last year this year and will drop off pretty fast, so the PS family definetly wont be over 300 million by 2015, so my prediction is definelty possible"

The PS3 was either going to die or get better, I think Christmas '07 was very important for it and its clearly got a lot better. So no, I dont realise that the PS3 is going to level off, if anything its having a small resurgance at the moment. Its got a lot of games coming this year & its only going to get cheaper. Plus it looks like Blu ray has sadly won the HD war, so that will be a factor too. All in all, no I dont think the PS3 is levelling off, if anything its just getting out of 2nd gear. Predicting its going to sell another 20 million more when its clearly on the up is ridiculous.

Lets look at the PS2. The PS2 HAS been in decline for years. But in the grand scheme of things thats not saying much & it'll continue to sell for years to come, just like the NES did in Japan. The PS2 is LONG from dead. Actually the PS2 2008 sales are almost exactly the same as they were at this point last year. They've dropped from 140k to 120k, which is around what 12%? The drop off between 2006 and 2007 was more like 50%, but its seems to have levelled out. The PS2 will probably shift another 6 or 7 million units in 2008. Even if the PS2 starts to drop at DOUBLE what it has done in the last couple of years it'll still sell another 30 million units over the next 8 years.

Youre stance that "the PS2 is done but end users dont care about graphics so the Wii will flourish like the NES" is completely hypocritical.

IT fun and all that the wii well sell like a nude lara croft game but really we have to look at the bigger picture here. We need the games, and even though the wii is marketleader publishers treat it as second rate (yes second rate) for the main hardcore franshises because they feel that those aren't the domintary group. This won't change much even if wii gets like 100mil and xbox360/ps3 30-40 million they will still see it as a bigger chances for profit for hardcore games. Ofcourse they will come im not saying that im just saying I want my hardcore exculsive titels for the wii.
Games are supposed to sell consoles. Wiisports does it yes, but alot of familys just buy it because they see that it's cheap and that its family oriented (good for the kids)

[EDIT] Maybe im exaggeration a bit but it still is something to think about 

Nope, you see this gen is different, people who have never bought a video game system are buying, because of games like Wii sports, and Guitar Hero and Mario and Sonic and so on, see games are selling the system, just not the games that the core gamers enjoy, my parents and my uncle bought a Wii for themsels, becaus eof the games that Wii has, that PS3 and 360 don't they barely even know what a PS3 or a 360 is, but they know the Wii and they love it, this is why Wii will surpass the records of all other consoles.