To those who don't understand my 60 million in 2008 prediction

[ameratsu]

Avinash_Tyagi said:

Danny355 said:
I find Mr Tyagis predictions to be an odd mix of ridiculously impossible & completely likley... "Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchise" Based on what?!! Insane prediction. "Lifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015" This is completely ridiculous. You just havnt thought this through. By 2015 the PS family could VERY EASILY be around 350 million. The chances of the Wii selling 330+ million units in the next 8 years is not high. I know its supply constrained but currently the Wii isnt really outselling the PS family week to week. Last week the PS family sold 264,000, the Wii sold 224,000. The week before the PS sold 502,000, the Wii 561,000. So a 60,000 unit weekly advantage is going to equal 330million in 8 years somehow? The Wii would have to OUTSELL the PS family by 37 MILLION(!!!) per year, starting from now. Yes you read that right, 37 million per year!!! "Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010" This is possibly even more ridiculous. The PS2 is still shifting a lot of units, this is just NOT going to happen. "Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008" Yup probably. "Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008" This is almost definate. Barring asteroid strike, this is guarenteed to happen.

Not even close, the PS family (PS1, 2 and 3) are currently topping out at 227 million consoles sold, you really expect they will add 123 million consoles in eight years, not a chance, the PS3 will be lucky to sell even 30 million more, and the PS2 will top out at maybe 10 million more sold maximum, meaining the PS family of consoles will be under 300 million in eight years, even accepting a PS4, in order to reach that level Wii will need to sell a little more than 30 million a year, probably around 31 million a year will do it, which is doable

The PS2 isn't shifting enough units as it was and is in decline, another year of good sales is what we can expect, probably around 120 million maximum, in order to break past that by the end of 2010, Wii would need to sell about 34 million a year for the next few years, again doable

Wii fit passing the GTA family is based on long run legs and attach rates, basically an attach rate of about 35% for Wii fit would be enough to net the needed sales to pass the GTA family.

 You are completely full of it if you think the Wii alone will get anywhere near 250 million sold.