Sony's info is out folks. My take is here http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=80014

                  Wii           X360        PS3

FY 3/ 06'     N/A           3.2m        N/A

FY 3/ 07'     5.84m      7.7m       3.51m

FY 3 / 08'    18.61m    8.1m        9.12m

FY 3/ 09'     25.95m     11.2m     10.06m

FY 3/ 10'     20.53m     10.0m     13.0m

FY 3 / 11'   18m E           ??         15.0m E

Microsoft's fiscal years end in June and they don't issue forecasts...but can't imagine they expect to ship something other than ~8-12m systems for the period ending March 2011

My guess is Sony cuts price to $250 or $200 in Fall 2010 and this is the peak PS3 year for hw, and a flat / slightly up year for sw. Thoughts?

Based on what? Why would they drop by $100?

EDIT: based on their 15 mill projection of course. Just like we predicted Slim at $300 based on the 13 million last FY. Gotya.

Anyone take a look at their TV projections? They plan on increasing tv sales from 15.6 to 25 million. That is a massive jump in a very competitive sector.

Sony seems to be taking 3D TVs seriously.... This could be good or bad for them since ather companies also have their own 3DTVs...

Source, i'm sorry, but if Sony will cut the price to 200$ this year, they will ship a LOT more than 15 million units in this FY.

lol source they will not drop it to $200 they will be back to square 1 on the profit situation, anyway alot of you are forgetting about GT5 that will sell lots of PS3's, i'm looking forwards to ps3 proving all the haters wrong again after they doubted 13m for last year

PS3 software won't be flat if hw increases as expected.
I know you're making that assumption based on the 2008-2009 comparison but one year hardly makes a statistical model.
Compare 2007 and 2008 in term of HW and SW and suddenly your model doesn't work at all anymore...

One of the reason SW barely increased in 2009 compared to 2008 is that there were significanly less bundling especially in the US than during the previous year...

The majority of PS3 sold in 2009 were SLIM and Sony didn't have to give away games with them to sell those...

Finally another reason why PS3 software will be up in 2010 is that most likely Move will come bundled with a game...

PS : and even if PSP2 was to release, a new machine hardly sells a lot of software the first 6 months so if they have their total SW shipment flat, knowing PS2 will be down it means PS3 SW shipment will be up.....

Not really. Last fiscal year Sony sold 13 million PS3s. This was a year with a $100 price cut and exclusives releases like Uncharted 2, God of War III, and Final Fantasy XIII in Japan. $199.99 seems like a big drop, but it's not any bigger than the drop last year and Gran Turismo 5 will sell a ton of systems, but not so many that it would amount to the 2 million systems more that Sony plans to ship this year over last.

Let's assume that it has the same effect.

Right now, the PS3 is selling over 33% up YoY, if this trend continues with another price-cut this year, that means that for this FY the PS3 will ship 13 mil + (13*0.33), which stands for 17.3 units, shipped.

you're wrong, there are plenty of big hitters comig out between now and march 2011, GT5, FF Vs XIII, LBP2, Infamous 2, Resistance 3, Killzone 3, and that is just the start of all things Sony, it also has motion control +3d coming ps3 is going to easily meet 15m without a price drop watch and learn