PS3 software won't be flat if hw increases as expected.
I know you're making that assumption based on the 2008-2009 comparison but one year hardly makes a statistical model.
Compare 2007 and 2008 in term of HW and SW and suddenly your model doesn't work at all anymore...
One of the reason SW barely increased in 2009 compared to 2008 is that there were significanly less bundling especially in the US than during the previous year...
The majority of PS3 sold in 2009 were SLIM and Sony didn't have to give away games with them to sell those...
Finally another reason why PS3 software will be up in 2010 is that most likely Move will come bundled with a game...
PS : and even if PSP2 was to release, a new machine hardly sells a lot of software the first 6 months so if they have their total SW shipment flat, knowing PS2 will be down it means PS3 SW shipment will be up.....
PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !
PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !
