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Forums - General Discussion - Mafia Round 16 - Brawlsville

Ok, ok, Mr. Spoilsport. Unvote dsister44



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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

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Final-Fan said:
Also, haven't most people who throw out massive statistics-based strategies turned up scum? Genuine question.

With that for you guys to chew on, I'm AFK for a few hours.

I don't know about most people, but the only time I haven't played this way were my first two games.



Switch Code: SW-7377-9189-3397 -- Nintendo Network ID: theRepublic -- Steam ID: theRepublic

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trangentspree said:

@theRepublic

I'm not sure why you're putting so much effort into convincing us that voting for a lynch is preferable than a no lynch right now, considering nobody has argued for a no lynch today and so far the only votes cast have been - stupendously idiotic - votes to lynch.

Because no lynch is the default option on Day One.  It was only a matter of time before the first one showed up.  And since no one else had said anything terribly interesting, I thought I would get things started.

As for the seemingly random votes, I actually don't mind on the first day.  It gives us something to look at on later days when we have more information.  It also puts some pressure on people to get them talking.



Switch Code: SW-7377-9189-3397 -- Nintendo Network ID: theRepublic -- Steam ID: theRepublic

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Switch - Super Mario Maker 2 (2019)
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Final-Fan said: 

I agree that doctors and pro-town roleblockers etc. are good for the town.  But I completely disagree that we can therefore proceed with your calculations without worrying about their effect on the course of things. 

Basically my position is that all that text, which I'm sure you went to a lot of effort to think out, is all but useless because of our nearly total ignorance as to what roles are actually out there.  Even if we knew, calculations could still be thrown off by their interactions with each other (X blocking/protecting Y etc.) but we could at least make a good attempt. 

But as it stands now, I don't think we should even bother considering all that you wrote, since it could so easily be thwarted by chance.  In fact I'd be surprised if it wasn't. 

If we can turn up a person worth lynching today, let's.  If not, then we can always no lynch.  But I do not believe that, all else being equal, we can determine a superior course of action by simply considering the number of players in this particular game. 

Ok, let's forget all endgame scenarios.  In any case, lynching everyday is the only sure way to maintain a kill count advantage over the mafia.  With an odd number of people starting the game, a single no lynch* takes a town kill and hands it to the mafia to do with what they please.  I would rather the town have the power over that kill.

*Note: A single blocked night kill would have the same effect.  But if that happened, we could then decide to no lynch without cost.  We could buy an extra day without giving the mafia another kill.  It would be an informed decision at that point, instead of the blind one it is now.  Basically, I am saying we should save a no lynch as a possible strategy for later in the game, when the endgame is more apparent.

(Another quick note: A double lynch at some point after a no lynch is another way to regain the kill advantage over the mafia.  However, I am a little wary of that, because mods don't always allow them, it takes the right number of players, and the right number of votes.  They can be tricky to pull off.)



Switch Code: SW-7377-9189-3397 -- Nintendo Network ID: theRepublic -- Steam ID: theRepublic

Now Playing
Switch - Super Mario Maker 2 (2019)
Switch - The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (2019)
Switch - Bastion (2011/2018)
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[edit: @ 2 posts up]
Not that it worked.
Vote Obama



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Around the Network
Final-Fan said:

[edit: @ 2 posts up]
Not that it worked.
Vote Obama

I a little confused by what you mean.  This is a response to the one about scum using statistics in their posts, right?



Switch Code: SW-7377-9189-3397 -- Nintendo Network ID: theRepublic -- Steam ID: theRepublic

Now Playing
Switch - Super Mario Maker 2 (2019)
Switch - The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (2019)
Switch - Bastion (2011/2018)
3DS - Star Fox 64 3D (2011)
3DS - Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney (Trilogy) (2005/2014)
Wii U - Darksiders: Warmastered Edition (2010/2017)
Mobile - The Simpson's Tapped Out and Yugioh Duel Links
PC - Deep Rock Galactic (2020)

theRepublic said:
I a little confused by what you mean.  This is a response to the one about scum using statistics in their posts, right?

You:  "As for the seemingly random votes, I actually don't mind on the first day.  It gives us something to look at on later days when we have more information.  It also puts some pressure on people to get them talking."

Me:  "Not that it worked. Vote Obama"



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

theRepublic said:
Ok, let's forget all endgame scenarios.  In any case, lynching everyday is the only sure way to maintain a kill count advantage over the mafia.  With an odd number of people starting the game, a single no lynch* takes a town kill and hands it to the mafia to do with what they please.  I would rather the town have the power over that kill.

*Note: A single blocked night kill would have the same effect.  But if that happened, we could then decide to no lynch without cost.  We could buy an extra day without giving the mafia another kill.  It would be an informed decision at that point, instead of the blind one it is now.  Basically, I am saying we should save a no lynch as a possible strategy for later in the game, when the endgame is more apparent.

(Another quick note: A double lynch at some point after a no lynch is another way to regain the kill advantage over the mafia.  However, I am a little wary of that, because mods don't always allow them, it takes the right number of players, and the right number of votes.  They can be tricky to pull off.)

This is a decent point, but Day 1 is the one day I am willing to let lack of suspects result in a No Lynch. 
And, in fact, considering how this particular Day 1 is going ...
Vote No Lynch



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Final-Fan said:

You:  "As for the seemingly random votes, I actually don't mind on the first day.  It gives us something to look at on later days when we have more information.  It also puts some pressure on people to get them talking."

Me:  "Not that it worked. Vote Obama"

Ah, that makes much more sense now!

I say we just up the pressure.  Did anyone have more than two votes?



Switch Code: SW-7377-9189-3397 -- Nintendo Network ID: theRepublic -- Steam ID: theRepublic

Now Playing
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I just noticed Dtewi is still MIA. He hasn't logged on since April 15th!



Switch Code: SW-7377-9189-3397 -- Nintendo Network ID: theRepublic -- Steam ID: theRepublic

Now Playing
Switch - Super Mario Maker 2 (2019)
Switch - The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (2019)
Switch - Bastion (2011/2018)
3DS - Star Fox 64 3D (2011)
3DS - Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney (Trilogy) (2005/2014)
Wii U - Darksiders: Warmastered Edition (2010/2017)
Mobile - The Simpson's Tapped Out and Yugioh Duel Links
PC - Deep Rock Galactic (2020)