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Forums - General Discussion - Mafia Round 16 - Brawlsville

SciFiBoy said:
what the heck are you guys doing?

votes on Falcon, Supermario and Dsister

none of which make any sense...seriously guys...lets get a grip shall we, if you dont suspect anyone, vote no lynch, dont make reasons up...

SciFiBoy --> Spock
Spock --> SpocK --> SK

SciFiBoy is the serial killer!  I'm not making this up! 



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

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Final-Fan said:
SciFiBoy said:
what the heck are you guys doing?

votes on Falcon, Supermario and Dsister

none of which make any sense...seriously guys...lets get a grip shall we, if you dont suspect anyone, vote no lynch, dont make reasons up...

SciFiBoy --> Spock
Spock --> SpocK --> SK

SciFiBoy is the serial killer!  I'm not making this up! 

I see you forgot your meds today...



theRepublic said:

Short Version:

A. It seems to me like if we no lynch Today, then we need an odd number of extra kills.  In that case, we can just lynch one person per day.  That gives the town and mafia control over the same number of kills.  If there are zero or an even number of extra kills, we need to no lynch a second time at some point, or double lynch.  The former buys us an extra night action at the expense of giving the mafia more control over who lives and dies.  The later gives the town more control over who lives and dies.

B. If we lynch today, then we need zero or an even number of extra kills.  In that case, we just lynch one person per day.  That gives us more control over who lives and dies than the mafia.  If there is an odd number of extra kills, we need to no lynch or double lynch so that the game will not end on a night.  The former gives the town and mafia control over the same number of kills, but buys an extra night action.  The later gives much more control to the town concerning who lives and dies.

Regarding this part, I still prefer B.  It never gives the mafia the advantage in deciding who lives or dies, and in the one extra kill scenario, we can decide to double lynch to take a big advantage on that front.



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theRepublic said:
Final-Fan said:
...I don't think there's much we can get from that table.  As you pointed out, there are all sorts of killing roles that might also exist -- not to mention roleblockers, doctors, etc. -- that would mess up the calculations.  ...

I'm not too worried about accounting for roleblockers and doctors, because those would extend the game.  That is good for the town.

Extra killers or double lynches are more problematic.  Really, it comes down to whether there is an even or odd number of these extra kills.  That would give us the information we need to pick 'no lynch' or 'day one lynch'.  Again, that is information we don't have.  Let's try and think some things out though anyway.
--A. Let's say we lynch someone today.  Then at some point down the road, an extra kill occurs.  That would normally cause the game to end Night 5 at the latest, but we could no lynch to draw the game out to end Day 6 instead.  Either way the game would have 5 lynches, 5 mafia kills, 1 other kill.
--(I almost finished this post but I just thought of another option:
--A1. Let's say we lynch someone today.  Then at some point down the road, an extra kill occurs.  That would normally cause the game to end Night 5 at the latest, but we could double lynch to end the game Day 5 instead.  This way the game would have 6 lynches, 4 mafia kills, 1 other kill.) 
--B. Let's say we lynch someone today.  Then at some point down the road, two extra kills occur.  The game would end Day 5 at the latest.  So the game would have 5 lynches, 4 mafia kills, 2 other kills.
--C. Let's say we no lynch today.  Then at some point an extra kill occurs.  That would cause the game to end Day 6.  Again, that is 5 lynches, 5 mafia kills, 1 other kill.
--D. Let's say we no lynch today.  Then two extra kills occur.  That would cause the game to end Night 5 at the latest.  We could no lynch a second time to get us to Day 6.  Either way the game would have 4 lynches, 5 mafia kills, 2 other kills.
--E. Let's say we no lynch today.  Then two extra kills occur.  That would cause the game to end Night 5 at the latest.  We could double lynch to end the game Day 5 at the latest.  The game would have 5 lynches, 4 mafia kills, 2 other kills.
--The way I see it, A and C are pretty much the same result.  It is just that scenario A is an informed decision, while C is a blind decision.  I prefer A.
--Between B and D, it is a judgement call.  With B, the town gets more control over who lives and dies.  With D, you get an extra night action, but the mafia gets more control over who lives and dies.  It's a tough call, but I'm leaning toward B.  Option E gives the town more control over who lives and dies without giving up the no lynch Day One.
--You could also extend this line of thinking to if there are no extra kills.
--F. Lynch today, no extra kills, game ends Day 6, 6 lynches, 5 mafia kills.
--G. No lynch today, no extra kills, game usually ends Night 6, no lynch a second time, game ends Day 7, 5 lynches, 6 mafia kills either way.
--H. No lynch today, no extra kills, game usually ends Night 6, double lynch once, game ends Day 6, 6 lynches, 5 mafia kills.
--Option F gives the town more control over who lives and dies.  Option G gives you an extra night action, but gives the mafia more control over who lives and dies.  Option H gives the town back control over who lives and dies while retaining a no lynch first day.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short Version:
--It seems to me like if we no lynch Today, then we need an odd number of extra kills.  In that case, we can just lynch one person per day.  That gives the town and mafia control over the same number of kills.  If there are zero or an even number of extra kills, we need to no lynch a second time at some point, or double lynch.  The former buys us an extra night action at the expense of giving the mafia more control over who lives and dies.  The later gives the town more control over who lives and dies.
--If we lynch today, then we need zero or an even number of extra kills.  In that case, we just lynch one person per day.  That gives us more control over who lives and dies than the mafia.  If there is an odd number of extra kills, we need to no lynch or double lynch so that the game will not end on a night.  The former gives the town and mafia control over the same number of kills, but buys an extra night action.  The later gives much more control to the town concerning who lives and dies.

This reply is more serious than the one I gave SFB (not too difficult). 

I agree that doctors and pro-town roleblockers etc. are good for the town.  But I completely disagree that we can therefore proceed with your calculations without worrying about their effect on the course of things. 

Basically my position is that all that text, which I'm sure you went to a lot of effort to think out, is all but useless because of our nearly total ignorance as to what roles are actually out there.  Even if we knew, calculations could still be thrown off by their interactions with each other (X blocking/protecting Y etc.) but we could at least make a good attempt. 

But as it stands now, I don't think we should even bother considering all that you wrote, since it could so easily be thwarted by chance.  In fact I'd be surprised if it wasn't. 

If we can turn up a person worth lynching today, let's.  If not, then we can always no lynch.  But I do not believe that, all else being equal, we can determine a superior course of action by simply considering the number of players in this particular game. 



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Also, haven't most people who throw out massive statistics-based strategies turned up scum? Genuine question.

With that for you guys to chew on, I'm AFK for a few hours.



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Around the Network

@theRepublic

I'm not sure why you're putting so much effort into convincing us that voting for a lynch is preferable than a no lynch right now, considering nobody has argued for a no lynch today and so far the only votes cast have been - stupendously idiotic - votes to lynch.

 

dsister44 said:
SciFiBoy said:
what the heck are you guys doing?

votes on Falcon, Supermario and Dsister

none of which make any sense...seriously guys...lets get a grip shall we, if you dont suspect anyone, vote no lynch, dont make reasons up...

Well, for Mario, he was complaining, and I told him to call his ISP. He told me to call them. I then said that I would make everyone vote for him in mafia if he didn't call. so my vote was more to make him call. 

I think Final-Fan and Truck are just sore about the last game  

I really don't get this at all. You wanted to convince Mario to call his ISP by voting for him on an online forum he no longer even has ability to view because he's temporarily lost his internet connection? Why is this a good reason to vote for him at all, given that if Mario really cannot gain access to the internet to play this game we could just have him modkilled and not waste a lynch on him?

FoS: d[s]ister44

[Edit for typo]



Also, sorry for my absence today - but I was watching the X Factor... I mean UK election debate...



trangentspree said:
Also, sorry for my absence today - but I was watching the X Factor... I mean UK election debate...

lol, what did you think of it? (post in the election thread, not here though, lol)



trangentspree said:

@theRepublic

I'm not sure why you're putting so much effort into convincing us that voting for a lynch is preferable than a no lynch right now, considering nobody has argued for a no lynch today and so far the only votes cast have been - stupendously idiotic - votes to lynch.

 

dsister44 said:
SciFiBoy said:
what the heck are you guys doing?

votes on Falcon, Supermario and Dsister

none of which make any sense...seriously guys...lets get a grip shall we, if you dont suspect anyone, vote no lynch, dont make reasons up...

Well, for Mario, he was complaining, and I told him to call his ISP. He told me to call them. I then said that I would make everyone vote for him in mafia if he didn't call. so my vote was more to make him call. 

I think Final-Fan and Truck are just sore about the last game  

I really don't get this at all. You wanted to convince Mario to call his ISP by voting for him on an online forum he no longer even has ability to view because he's temporarily lost his internet connection? Why is this a good reason to vote for him at all, given that if Mario really cannot gain access to the internet to play this game we could just have him modkilled and not waste a lynch on him?

FoS: d[s]ister44

[Edit for typo]

-_- 

A couple things 

1. It was a joke vote

2. I didn't want him to be killed. I wanted him to stop complaining about not having internet, and just call his ISP :P 

3. He could see it supposedly. His ipod* and DS worked on the internet 

*Stopped working after the posting of my post 



Then I would suggest we draw a close to this joke post phenomenon that seems to be in full swing this game.

I don't mind some kidding around, but we have around 5 votes so far (?) and I'm not sure if any one of them is meant with any seriousness.