| Final-Fan said:
I agree that doctors and pro-town roleblockers etc. are good for the town. But I completely disagree that we can therefore proceed with your calculations without worrying about their effect on the course of things.
Basically my position is that all that text, which I'm sure you went to a lot of effort to think out, is all but useless because of our nearly total ignorance as to what roles are actually out there. Even if we knew, calculations could still be thrown off by their interactions with each other (X blocking/protecting Y etc.) but we could at least make a good attempt.
But as it stands now, I don't think we should even bother considering all that you wrote, since it could so easily be thwarted by chance. In fact I'd be surprised if it wasn't.
If we can turn up a person worth lynching today, let's. If not, then we can always no lynch. But I do not believe that, all else being equal, we can determine a superior course of action by simply considering the number of players in this particular game.
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Ok, let's forget all endgame scenarios. In any case, lynching everyday is the only sure way to maintain a kill count advantage over the mafia. With an odd number of people starting the game, a single no lynch* takes a town kill and hands it to the mafia to do with what they please. I would rather the town have the power over that kill.
*Note: A single blocked night kill would have the same effect. But if that happened, we could then decide to no lynch without cost. We could buy an extra day without giving the mafia another kill. It would be an informed decision at that point, instead of the blind one it is now. Basically, I am saying we should save a no lynch as a possible strategy for later in the game, when the endgame is more apparent.
(Another quick note: A double lynch at some point after a no lynch is another way to regain the kill advantage over the mafia. However, I am a little wary of that, because mods don't always allow them, it takes the right number of players, and the right number of votes. They can be tricky to pull off.)
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