MHFU is the defacto Monster Hunter game right now. I've hunted through the internet and outside of the JPN exlusive 360/PC Frontier it seems to have the most content. I'm not suprised that many PSP MHFU don't want the Wii version. Less monsters, less Weapons... Tri seems a refined reboot. For this reason I don't think that MH Fans in NA are going to jump on this game.

I doubt it will do phenomenal. Theres just some things Capcom needs to do before that happens. For examples
Monster Hunter the Saturday Morning Cartoon
Monster Hunter lunch boxes
Monster Hunter Energy Drinks(Blue Yian Kut-ku, Black Cherry Akinator flavours)
Monster Hunter Toys
Monster Hunter Pizza Pops
Monster Hunter stuff

Capcom and Nintendo should be building the brand before the game release.

Like I said, it's probably overtracked.  If it was really around 330k now and still moving ~3k weekly, why would Capcom have issued the disappointment in their results? Freedom 3 will kill sales before it comes close to 500k anyway, even on VGC.

I'll be very pleased if this game tops 500k in America.

I wish I had some of the confidence in Tri's performance as some of you do.

I'm gonna pick it up tomorrow despite being less than impressed with the demo. It seems the more you play the better it'll become for you once you get over the initial trials and start regularly slaying beasts. Gonna give it a whirl.

I say 300K Lifetime.

Why? No particular reason... I have no basis for this.

I just wanted to make a guess.

Heck for MAG plenty of people probably preordered it, got the demo... then canceled the Preorder.   I imagine that happens a lot even if the people do plan on buying the game later.

I freaking HATE the "preorder it and get the demo" policy.

I mean I need the demo to tell if i'm going to preorder it!

This is spot on,  gamestores have big displays for MH3 and i even got a promotioal leaflet about it through my letterbox this morning. This would never happen with something like no more heroes or muramasa

Well I think the reserves might be a little misleading in this game is getting such mainstream appeal that the reserves may only represent first day sales rather than how it does the entire week. Usually when we see reserves for big core games, it is more accurate in telling what it'll say for the entire week due to lack of mainstream interest or core gamers being "iffy" on the project depending on quality and after release hype. Mainstream titles as we saw with NSMB Wii and Modern Warfare 2, were able to double what they had in reserves due to mainstream appeal.

MH3, I think has built up a lot of that mainstream appeal, and might be able to sell consistently throughout the week and in subsequent weeks. Especially with it being the sole big release (marketing wise) of the year until Galaxy 2 in a month. And due to the marketing being so large and consistent, that might also be something that gets mainstream on board with the title. And of course as the demo has apparently been very popular and widespread, might get a lot of people to pick up without that necessity to reserve.

Really I've not put too much time into think how this will sell over a long period of time but at the least 100k first week in America and as high as 200k first week depending on how effective that advertising has been. With either of those, though, I think it shouldn't have too many issues hitting 400k-500k LT in the region and potentially as high as 750k depending on of course that mainstream appeal marketing has been trying to tap into. Europe, is too hard for me too tell, but for some odd reason I think they might pick it up in larger quantities than we are giving it credit for but another part of me thinks it'll follow normal trends haha.

Oh well tough call on all fronts but it's definitely one of the more exciting releases of the year, well at least since Heavy Rain.

It better sell over a million in the west or I lost all hope on 3rd party games on wii -_-

Though I still suspect it to sell 100k this week

If VGChartz preorders are accurate this time, I would expect 127k first week in America, with maybe 32k or something in Europe.

If they are wrong (which I wanna take into account) I'd figure the game would manage 76k first week NA, and my Others numbers stay the same. Either way, it will sell 100k first week. However, if it does manage 76k FW, the drop won't be as large; word of mouth will push it.

Lifetime sales: I'd venture a guess at 560k in Americas and 220k in Others. Before, when I predicted its LTD after 10 weeks in Japan, I was pretty much spot on with 915k, but I don't have the data nor the patience to throw in as much of an analysis this time.

That 780k will get torn to shreds by fanboys, so I hope it gets 1.25m NA + EU someday.

direct them to my live stream when I'm playing and they would prolly change their minds.