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Forums - Nintendo - Will the Wii break PS2's WW sales record???

Zucas on 22 November 2007

I think realisticly Wii will have about 18-19 million sold by the end of the year. I think really saying any less would be discrediting the massive want for the Wii and Nintendo should have at least 20 million shipped by the end of the year. They'll sell another 2.5 million from here til end of 2007 in America. Another 1.5 million in Japan. And 2 million in Europe/Other. At least shipment wise.

It's going to be interesting though how they allocate shipments to Europe/Other cuase it will be the region that needs probably the most but will get less percentage wise.



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Branko2166 on 22 November 2007
TWRoO said:
Branko2166 said:
TWRoO said:
Branko2166 said:
Not a chance especially when the ps3 and 360 hit mass market pricing. And the wii is already experiencing slowdown in one major market, that being Japan of course. Not saying that it won't do well overall but I just doubt it can sustain these sales long term especially with increasing competition.

argh! ok visit this thread; http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=50&id=10309

go to near the bottom and read my two posts....The Wii is doing just as well as the PS2 did in Japan, is slightly higher in Europe (though if you include all 'other' regions it is tracking the same) and doing quite a bit better in North America....Worldwide it is doing much better (though that is mainly because of the Japan only 1st 4 months of PS2)


The point I was trying to make is that with Japan unless the wii rebounds it will struggle to do what the ps2 did in Japan and that's sell over 20 million units there alone.

 


I agree the Wii has fallen from it's pedestal at the moment in Japan, but the point of my posts in the other thread is that it is currently at entirely normal sales for November (assuming you think the PS2 was normal, which it wasn't) the PS2 continued to go from around 30k p/week in November, jumping up early December to a peak in early January, then going back to 50k p/week ish for Spring/Summer and falling back to 30k in Autumn.....The Wii is doing exatly that at the moment following the success of the PS2....which made 22 million in 6 years (plus some more this last year)

Leo i have a feeling that you don't really believe anything you say yourself, in the knowedge of Nintendoes always conservative estimates (23.84million before April) you say something like 30 million for the 9 months after that....If you were truly thinking the Wii will lose it's lustre during 08, then you would have made something a little more reasonable like 35M by end of 08, followed by a poor 09 (end of 09 -45M) and then dying out after that....(end of gen 50M) that is something possible going by normal gaming rules.

I think you are trying to become the PS3 version of John, rather than properly believing in what you say.


 I think we are roughly on the same page. I guess the challange for the wii particularly in Japan is if it's going to be as consistent as the ps2 which in my opinion was so successful because of its versatility.

 



 

 

johnlucas on 22 November 2007
Branko2166 said:
johnlucas said:

One more note I'm gonna highlight about Wii sales and this 20 Million I insist on.

In 2006, Wii sold just under 4 million being out a month and a half. A Month and a Half and they sold just under 4 million by the ends of December 31, 2006.

Remember, they launched in the Americas on November 19th which aided in the rough month and a half.

BUT they didn't launch in Japan until December 2nd a day shy of a month.

AND they didn't launch in Europe until the dates of December 7th, 8th, & 9th making it about 2/3 of a month.

Yet with one region selling for about a month and a half and other regions selling for a rough month or two-thirds of a month and they nearly hit 4 million. They woulda HAD 4 million if not for that Wii Strap recall just to point that out. But they had damn near might as well say 4 million by the end of 2006 with a trial supply at launch to test the reception of the new idea.

THIS time the idea has proven itself and they KNOW it's hot. Do you REALLY think that if Reggie said they'll double supply for this holiday season and last holiday season they had 4 million in the channel and they have 14 million plus Wiis sold NOW that they can't make 20 Million by the end of 2007 knowing how hot ticket an item the system is? This time with sales running constantly through the holiday season instead of half months and partial months like last year?

They didn't fully know last year. They KNOW this year.

4 Million was in the channel for 2006. Reggie said they'll double it. That's 8 Million. They have 14 Million on the way to 15 Million sold NOW. 14 + 8 = 22. I said 20 Million. That would be 22 Million.

And you STILL doubt my prediction? Hohohohohohohohohoho!

Like I said just wait and see. I live for these moments.

John Lucas


So they sold 4 million in a month and a half ok but how long before the wii went on sale did nintendo manufacture it for. For instance if at the time they were able to produce 1 million wiis a month and they started manufacturing them 3 months prior to release then 4 million isn't too difficult however now that demand has caught up to supply even if nintendo has upped its manufacturing it will be hard to reach 20 million by years end.

 

I 'd say 18 million is more of a reasonable figure considering that they have sold approximately 14 million consoles now and with 6 weeks to go they would have to sell on average 1 million wiis per week which I think is unlikely. We may see it crack 1 million for a week or 2 but I doubt that they can average that during a 6 week period.


Here's another way to look at it.

If we go by VGChartz estimates NOW at this current time (U.S. Thanksgiving, November 22, 2007) at 14.25 Million, that leaves only 5.75 Million to cover the spread, right?

Take 5.75 Million and break it up into 3 parts. You get about 1.91 or 1.92 Million a piece. This stands for Japan, The Americas, & Europe/PAL markets.

You don't think they can get a little under 2 million sold to each region within the Holiday season with this crazy demand? If you do, then you will be amongst the surprised with dropped jaws come January 1, 2008 when you see these figures.

They sold 4 Million BEFORE strong production in partial months by last year. Ain't no big thing to hit almost 6 for this year with full months to sell in. And believe me they will not only cover the spread but surpass it.

Just watch. It'll all become clear very soon. Tomorrow should bring in some sickening numbers. I'd stay away from the stores tomorrow if I were you. Well that's assuming you live in North America.

John Lucas

Extra note: Even Wikipedia (sourced) says Wii sales are at 13.17 Million with all regions tabulated for September 30, 2007. Whether you read that as Shipped to Retail or Sold to Customers that's about 2 months ago and they had those numbers. Underestimating Wii is a tragically unwise move. Never underestimate the Wii because that's when it'll bite you in the butt.



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

TWRoO on 22 November 2007
Branko2166 said:

 So they sold 4 million in a month and a half ok but how long before the wii went on sale did nintendo manufacture it for. For instance if at the time they were able to produce 1 million wiis a month and they started manufacturing them 3 months prior to release then 4 million isn't too difficult however now that demand has caught up to supply even if nintendo has upped its manufacturing it will be hard to reach 20 million by years end.

 

I 'd say 18 million is more of a reasonable figure considering that they have sold approximately 14 million consoles now and with 6 weeks to go they would have to sell on average 1 million wiis per week which I think is unlikely. We may see it crack 1 million for a week or 2 but I doubt that they can average that during a 6 week period.


first they have stated supply will be considerably better than last christmas....so more than 4 million is a given unless 1/2 the ships get hi-jacked. I personally think there will be at least 18 million sold, probably over 19.

 

also there are 7 weeks if you include the week after christmas, which is still of reasonable size in Americas and PAL...and in Japan is usually the best or second best selling week of the year.



TWRoO on 22 November 2007
Branko2166 said:
TWRoO said:
Branko2166 said:
TWRoO said:
Branko2166 said:
Not a chance especially when the ps3 and 360 hit mass market pricing. And the wii is already experiencing slowdown in one major market, that being Japan of course. Not saying that it won't do well overall but I just doubt it can sustain these sales long term especially with increasing competition.

argh! ok visit this thread; http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=50&id=10309

go to near the bottom and read my two posts....The Wii is doing just as well as the PS2 did in Japan, is slightly higher in Europe (though if you include all 'other' regions it is tracking the same) and doing quite a bit better in North America....Worldwide it is doing much better (though that is mainly because of the Japan only 1st 4 months of PS2)


The point I was trying to make is that with Japan unless the wii rebounds it will struggle to do what the ps2 did in Japan and that's sell over 20 million units there alone.

 


I agree the Wii has fallen from it's pedestal at the moment in Japan, but the point of my posts in the other thread is that it is currently at entirely normal sales for November (assuming you think the PS2 was normal, which it wasn't) the PS2 continued to go from around 30k p/week in November, jumping up early December to a peak in early January, then going back to 50k p/week ish for Spring/Summer and falling back to 30k in Autumn.....The Wii is doing exatly that at the moment following the success of the PS2....which made 22 million in 6 years (plus some more this last year)

Leo i have a feeling that you don't really believe anything you say yourself, in the knowedge of Nintendoes always conservative estimates (23.84million before April) you say something like 30 million for the 9 months after that....If you were truly thinking the Wii will lose it's lustre during 08, then you would have made something a little more reasonable like 35M by end of 08, followed by a poor 09 (end of 09 -45M) and then dying out after that....(end of gen 50M) that is something possible going by normal gaming rules.

I think you are trying to become the PS3 version of John, rather than properly believing in what you say.


 I think we are roughly on the same page. I guess the challange for the wii particularly in Japan is if it's going to be as consistent as the ps2 which in my opinion was so successful because of its versatility.

 


agreed, it has to keep it up, something i believe with the Wii, and the Japanese, is entirely possible... also remember the PS2 had an atronomical Japanese release (800k in the first week or something silly) and the Wii has caught up to that over the year and after the January rush could be tracking above it.



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GhaudePhaede010 on 22 November 2007

Nintendo are probably not going to make twenty million this year because they may not make enough units to do it. But if they did make enough, they would.

My prediction about two months ago was 22 million by thee end of this year and lets John Lucas somehow made that seem possible in his last post. I am not holding my breath but I want to thank John for giving me some hope.



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Branko2166 on 22 November 2007
johnlucas said:
Branko2166 said:
johnlucas said:

One more note I'm gonna highlight about Wii sales and this 20 Million I insist on.

In 2006, Wii sold just under 4 million being out a month and a half. A Month and a Half and they sold just under 4 million by the ends of December 31, 2006.

Remember, they launched in the Americas on November 19th which aided in the rough month and a half.

BUT they didn't launch in Japan until December 2nd a day shy of a month.

AND they didn't launch in Europe until the dates of December 7th, 8th, & 9th making it about 2/3 of a month.

Yet with one region selling for about a month and a half and other regions selling for a rough month or two-thirds of a month and they nearly hit 4 million. They woulda HAD 4 million if not for that Wii Strap recall just to point that out. But they had damn near might as well say 4 million by the end of 2006 with a trial supply at launch to test the reception of the new idea.

THIS time the idea has proven itself and they KNOW it's hot. Do you REALLY think that if Reggie said they'll double supply for this holiday season and last holiday season they had 4 million in the channel and they have 14 million plus Wiis sold NOW that they can't make 20 Million by the end of 2007 knowing how hot ticket an item the system is? This time with sales running constantly through the holiday season instead of half months and partial months like last year?

They didn't fully know last year. They KNOW this year.

4 Million was in the channel for 2006. Reggie said they'll double it. That's 8 Million. They have 14 Million on the way to 15 Million sold NOW. 14 + 8 = 22. I said 20 Million. That would be 22 Million.

And you STILL doubt my prediction? Hohohohohohohohohoho!

Like I said just wait and see. I live for these moments.

John Lucas


So they sold 4 million in a month and a half ok but how long before the wii went on sale did nintendo manufacture it for. For instance if at the time they were able to produce 1 million wiis a month and they started manufacturing them 3 months prior to release then 4 million isn't too difficult however now that demand has caught up to supply even if nintendo has upped its manufacturing it will be hard to reach 20 million by years end.

 

I 'd say 18 million is more of a reasonable figure considering that they have sold approximately 14 million consoles now and with 6 weeks to go they would have to sell on average 1 million wiis per week which I think is unlikely. We may see it crack 1 million for a week or 2 but I doubt that they can average that during a 6 week period.


Here's another way to look at it.

If we go by VGChartz estimates NOW at this current time (U.S. Thanksgiving, November 22, 2007) at 14.25 Million, that leaves only 5.75 Million to cover the spread, right?

Take 5.75 Million and break it up into 3 parts. You get about 1.91 or 1.92 Million a piece. This stands for Japan, The Americas, & Europe/PAL markets.

You don't think they can get a little under 2 million sold to each region within the Holiday season with this crazy demand? If you do, then you will be amongst the surprised with dropped jaws come January 1, 2008 when you see these figures.

They sold 4 Million BEFORE strong production in partial months by last year. Ain't no big thing to hit almost 6 for this year with full months to sell in. And believe me they will not only cover the spread but surpass it.

Just watch. It'll all become clear very soon. Tomorrow should bring in some sickening numbers. I'd stay away from the stores tomorrow if I were you. Well that's assuming you live in North America.

John Lucas


 Whatever happens the numbers should be good for all consoles but I do think that besides supply constraints that the wii should face stronger competition these holidays from the competition. The next 6 weeks will be very exciting to be sure.

Btw I'm from Sydney,Australia and there is plenty of stock at the moment however the last week before Christmas here is insane as well. I think I may make the trip to the shops just for fun and some good analysis. 



 

 

Parokki on 22 November 2007

Damnit John! Here I go and type a wall of text, but you go and steal all the attention again. >_



leo-j on 22 November 2007
GhaudePhaede010 said:
Nintendo are probably not going to make twenty million this year because they may not make enough units to do it. But if they did make enough, they would.

My prediction about two months ago was 22 million by thee end of this year and lets John Lucas somehow made that seem possible in his last post. I am not holding my breath but I want to thank John for giving me some hope.

Nintendo can only produce 1.8 million wii's a month.John thinks its per region, its World wide.

The wii will not make it to 20 million. Its just mathematics. 200k left for this month, and 1.8= about 2 million add that to the current numbers will be around 17 million WW sales.

Because of shortages guys the wii might not be the best selling console this holiday season.



 

mM
Parokki on 22 November 2007

Leo: how hard is it for you to understand that Nintendo almost certainly has millions of Wiis stockpiled, waiting for the holiday season?