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Branko2166 on 22 November 2007
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johnlucas said:
Branko2166 said:
johnlucas said:

One more note I'm gonna highlight about Wii sales and this 20 Million I insist on.

In 2006, Wii sold just under 4 million being out a month and a half. A Month and a Half and they sold just under 4 million by the ends of December 31, 2006.

Remember, they launched in the Americas on November 19th which aided in the rough month and a half.

BUT they didn't launch in Japan until December 2nd a day shy of a month.

AND they didn't launch in Europe until the dates of December 7th, 8th, & 9th making it about 2/3 of a month.

Yet with one region selling for about a month and a half and other regions selling for a rough month or two-thirds of a month and they nearly hit 4 million. They woulda HAD 4 million if not for that Wii Strap recall just to point that out. But they had damn near might as well say 4 million by the end of 2006 with a trial supply at launch to test the reception of the new idea.

THIS time the idea has proven itself and they KNOW it's hot. Do you REALLY think that if Reggie said they'll double supply for this holiday season and last holiday season they had 4 million in the channel and they have 14 million plus Wiis sold NOW that they can't make 20 Million by the end of 2007 knowing how hot ticket an item the system is? This time with sales running constantly through the holiday season instead of half months and partial months like last year?

They didn't fully know last year. They KNOW this year.

4 Million was in the channel for 2006. Reggie said they'll double it. That's 8 Million. They have 14 Million on the way to 15 Million sold NOW. 14 + 8 = 22. I said 20 Million. That would be 22 Million.

And you STILL doubt my prediction? Hohohohohohohohohoho!

Like I said just wait and see. I live for these moments.

John Lucas


So they sold 4 million in a month and a half ok but how long before the wii went on sale did nintendo manufacture it for. For instance if at the time they were able to produce 1 million wiis a month and they started manufacturing them 3 months prior to release then 4 million isn't too difficult however now that demand has caught up to supply even if nintendo has upped its manufacturing it will be hard to reach 20 million by years end.

 

I 'd say 18 million is more of a reasonable figure considering that they have sold approximately 14 million consoles now and with 6 weeks to go they would have to sell on average 1 million wiis per week which I think is unlikely. We may see it crack 1 million for a week or 2 but I doubt that they can average that during a 6 week period.


Here's another way to look at it.

If we go by VGChartz estimates NOW at this current time (U.S. Thanksgiving, November 22, 2007) at 14.25 Million, that leaves only 5.75 Million to cover the spread, right?

Take 5.75 Million and break it up into 3 parts. You get about 1.91 or 1.92 Million a piece. This stands for Japan, The Americas, & Europe/PAL markets.

You don't think they can get a little under 2 million sold to each region within the Holiday season with this crazy demand? If you do, then you will be amongst the surprised with dropped jaws come January 1, 2008 when you see these figures.

They sold 4 Million BEFORE strong production in partial months by last year. Ain't no big thing to hit almost 6 for this year with full months to sell in. And believe me they will not only cover the spread but surpass it.

Just watch. It'll all become clear very soon. Tomorrow should bring in some sickening numbers. I'd stay away from the stores tomorrow if I were you. Well that's assuming you live in North America.

John Lucas


 Whatever happens the numbers should be good for all consoles but I do think that besides supply constraints that the wii should face stronger competition these holidays from the competition. The next 6 weeks will be very exciting to be sure.

Btw I'm from Sydney,Australia and there is plenty of stock at the moment however the last week before Christmas here is insane as well. I think I may make the trip to the shops just for fun and some good analysis.