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Forums - Sales - Analyst predicts 127m PS3 sales

Demotruk on 14 March 2010

It looks like someone else thinks like me and made a better relative YoY chart than I did:

It uses NPD data rather than vgchartz data, but the trends are mostly the same.

 

360 seems to be somehow managing to be flat on that chart. But the end of it shows what I was saying to theprof in this thread, that while the PS3 is currently up YoY you can see it's relative YoY percent is declining fast. GoW will of course help but it'll reach the zero mark in the months after. Of course there's supply issues at play here, however we only know of that in the US and the same trend has been happening in vgchartz worldwide data.



A game I'm developing with some friends:

www.xnagg.com/zombieasteroids/publish.htm

It is largely a technical exercise but feedback is appreciated.

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numonex on 17 April 2010

PS3 will sell around 44 million by the end of 2010. So it will have to triple this total in 6 slower selling years to reach 127 million. Its not going to happen. 90 million ltd sales for the PS3 will be a stretch. The sales of PS3 will dive when the new systems are released in 2012 and the sales of PS3 will slow down in 2011 and beyond.



Darth Tigris on 17 April 2010

This analysis seems to be based more on previous generations that the trends of THIS generation.

Say what you will about Pachter, but at least he seems to be more in touch with the times.



Kenoid on 19 April 2010

Almost impossible, unless it has godly games like the Wii or exclusive like the 360.
But since 2010 it may seem so...



                                  

                                       That's Gordon Freeman in "Real-Life"
 

 

Kenoid on 19 April 2010

@Darth Tigris,

Yeah, sometimes analysts like Michael Patcher aren't so crazy after all =)



                                  

                                       That's Gordon Freeman in "Real-Life"
 

 

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Seece on 19 April 2010
kowenicki said:
MikeB said:
Not that different from my own prediction before the PS3 launched. I don't understand why some people would be upset with such an analysis regarding the PS3.

To me the Wii and XBox 360 predictions seems less likely though. At least I hope for progression of the industry a WiiHD and a new XBox with a higher capacity drive materialize before this.


Now I started reading this thread ofr a giggle... and I fully expected mikeb to be in early... and he didnt disappoint.

This is some ANALysis.... its just barking!

I honestly think Mikeb is a secret support of the 360 you know .. just on here for the laughs, because what he says he can't say with a straight face surely?



 

Naum on 19 April 2010
vaio said:
Hus said:
thx1139 said:

Part 3 will see sales at about the same level.

Putting the PS3 at about 13M in sales for 2010.

You forgot

Part 3.1 - GT5 is released, all past sales numbers go out the window.

Part 3.2 - With its release, significant majority of European HD console sales are PS3s.

 

If its released in Oct/Nov GT5 will effectivly kill holiday 360 sales in Europe.  I stand by this and always have. 

 

we all know your pro ps3 agenda and your predictions about the competition:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=14021

March 27 2007: they are alreay outdated. wii is dead in the next year and a half.

Predicting ps 3 pricecut in 2007:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=13713

March 25 2007: 65 nano Cell Br prices droping E engine axed lookin like this year.

Comments on the Wii again

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=20124

APR 11 2007:wii is a kiddy fad, they are right.

Why the Wii wont reach 80 million:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=15921

March 31:Ohhh some one has some time to kill. Pretty optimistic. wiis hardware hdtv penetration future proofed competitiors are working agianst its sales

Predicting PS3 will pass 360 by august 2007:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=20314

APR 11 2007: 360 is only selling well in NA, during the summer and into Xmas Ps3 will fire the big guns and eat 360s potential sales.

 around august 360 will be surpassed.

Thoughts on Nintendo and Wii:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=22262

APR 15 2007: 

its the kiddwii!!!

 NIn has always been kiddy oriented, its just reality.

Predicting Wii too out in 2009:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=23015

no worries, wii 2 will be out in 2009!!!

Some thought about xbox live:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=24569

APR 20:

live is a joke.

 Home will destroy it.

Prediction about the 360:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=132111

AUG 9 2007:

360 is heading down and nothing can stop that. As soon as mid 08 or late xmas 08 360 is in 3rd place.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

N ot very much of what you say is based in reality and most of it is pro Sony no mutter what.

You have been drinking so much Sony cool aid that nothing you say can be taken seriously.

You have been thinking that Wii, xbox and xbox live would sink since 2007 and that by mid 2008 Sony would rule both in consoles and online and even though reality has shown you a different picture you just keep on speewing Sony propaganda and unrealistic predictions.

I think that sums it all up



If it isn't turnbased it isn't worth playing   (mostly)

And shepherds we shall be,

For Thee, my Lord, for Thee. Power hath descended forth from Thy hand, That our feet may swiftly carry out Thy command. So we shall flow a river forth to Thee And teeming with souls shall it ever be. In Nomine Patris, et Filii, et Spiritūs Sancti. -----The Boondock Saints

cdude1034 on 19 April 2010

I didn't feel like reading the entire 80 billion page thread, but let me just say that I've never before seen this kind of disconnect between industry analysts and reality.

This generation ends the moment a new console is released, and by the looks of it, it's gonna be within the next couple of years.

Edit: And that will herald the end of any shot PS3 has at reaching 127 million.



 

Currently playing: Civ 6

Viper1 on 19 April 2010
cdude1034 said:

I didn't feel like reading the entire 80 billion page thread, but let me just say that I've never before seen this kind of disconnect between industry analysts and reality.

Let me introduce you to the following list.

 

Strategy Analytics [Jul-05] (Worldwide Through 2012)
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (61%)
Xbox 360 - 58.8 million (30%)
Nintendo Wii - 18 million (9%)
Total - 198.6 million

Kagan Research (U.S. Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 56.5%
Xbox 360 - 28.5%
Nintendo Wii - 15%

Piper Jaffray (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 19.6 million (48.3%)
Sony PS3 - 15.5 million (38.2%)
Nintendo Wii - 5.5 million (13.5%)
Total - 40.6 million

Citigroup (U.S. Through 2008) Didn't even list Wii
Xbox 360 - 19.8 million
Sony PS3 - 11.0 million

UBS [Jan-06] (U.S. Through 2009)
Sony PS3 - 23 million (43%)
Xbox 360 - 20 million (38%)
Nintendo Wii - 10 million (19%)
Total - 53 million

Friedman Billings Ramsey (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 24.6 million (40.7%)
Sony PS3 - 23.3 million (38.6%)
Nintendo Wii - 12.5 million (20.7%)
Total - 60.4 million

In-Stat (Worldwide Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 50%
Xbox 360 - 28.6%
Nintendo Wii - 21.2%

Wedbush Morgan Securities (U.S. and Europe Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 45%
Xbox 360 - 35%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

Merrill Lynch (Worldwide Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 47%
Sony PS3 - 33%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

IDG (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 15.5 million (43.3%)
Sony PS3 - 13.5 million (37.7%)
Nintendo Wii - 6.8 million (19.0%)
Total - 35.8 million

P.J. McNealy (Worldwide Through 2007)
Xbox 360 - 21 to 23 million
Sony PS3 - 13 to 16 million
Nintendo Wii - 12 to 14 million

Yankee Group (North America Through 2011)
Sony PS3 - 30 million (44%)
Xbox 360 - 27 million (40%)
Nintendo Wii - 11 million (16%)
Total - 68 million

Nomura Securities (Worldwide Through 2011)
Sony PS3 - 71 million
Nintendo Wii - 40 million

Enterbrain / Famitsu (Worldwide Through 2009)
Sony PS3 - 34 million (39.1%)
Xbox 360 - 28 million (32.2%)
Nintendo Wii - 25 million (28.7%)
Total - 87 million

IDG (North America Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 23.9 million (39.2%)
Sony PS3 - 23.5 million (38.5%)
Nintendo Wii - 13.6 million (22.3%)
Total - 61 million

Merrill Lynch (Worldwide Through March 2011)
Xbox 360 - 39%
Sony PS3 - 34%
Nintendo Wii - 27%

Strategy Analytics [Nov-06] (Worldwide Through 2012)
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (59.47%)
Xbox 360 - 59.7 million (29.15%)
Nintendo Wii - 23.3 million (11.38%)
Total - 204.8 million

SFG Research (North America Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 29.4 million (43.8%)
Sony PS3 - 24.2 million (36.1%)
Nintendo Wii - 13.5 million (20.1%)
Total - 67.1 million

SFG Research (Worldwide Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 62 million (46.6%)
Xbox 360 - 46 million (34.6%)
Nintendo Wii - 25 million (18.8%)
Total - 133 million

Screen Digest (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 42%
Sony PS3 - 38%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

Screen Digest (Japan Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 64%
Nintendo Wii - 25%
Xbox 360 - 11%

UBS [May-07] (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 22 million (35.5%)
Sony PS3 - 21 million (33.9%)
Nintendo Wii - 19 million (30.6%)
Tolal - 62 million



The rEVOLution is not being televised

Loud_Hot_White_Box on 19 April 2010

Sales figures don't stop when a 'new gen' is released.

While I don't think PS3 will reach 127m, it will sell for a long long time assuming they keep bringing its retail price down.  It's very versatile and its graphics will always be 'good enough' for most people.  New gen consoles will have to really consider price, because they'll have to contend with PS3 being available at a (potentially) lower price and with a large, active install base.

LOL at those low Wii sales predictions^^.  Good thing I invested in Nintendo 6 months before the Wii was released.