I actually think the PS3 is the most vulnerable to new technology. The type of buyers who are attracted to the PS3 are people who want the latest technology. When something better comes along, they will jump ship.

It's the Wii buyers who don't care how old the technology is. They buy games that don't rely on graphics or system power. They won't jump ship as quickly.

If they have the strongest region in Europe then they'll probably be the most effected by any moves back into PC gaming. Once GPUs etc reach the point where you can get better performance for less than $100, as seen during the PS1, PS2 and now likely this generation a lot of PC gamers go back to PC gaming and relegate their console to 2nd place.

God damn it 2007, stop coming back! We don't want you any more.

How do you know that?

Last year at this time no one knew a Slim or a price cut was coming. And even if nothing new comes this fall we know that GT5 will be releasing around then and that's a big hardware boosters.

2010 for the PS3 will be broken into 3 parts. The PS3 sold 12.4M consoles in 2009.

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 04th Jan 2009 to 02nd Jan 2010:

Console PS3
Total 12,404,833


Part 1: Time period matching same period in 2009 prior to slim and price cut. During this time in 2009 the PS3 sold 4.7M consoles.

Part 2: Time period from slim introduction and price cut and before Black Friday. During this time in 2009 the PS3 sold 3.2M consoles. This is the time period most affected by the slim and price cut.

Part 3: Black Friday through the end of the year. During this time the PS3 sold 4.4M units.

Part 1 will see a YoY increase and Kowenicki estimate of 30% is probably good boost. That would move the sales in this period to 6.2M consoles.

Part 2 will see a drop because no pent up demand for price cut. Probably see PS3 drop of 10-20% to closer to 2.5M consoles.

Part 3 will see sales at about the same level.

Putting the PS3 at about 13M in sales for 2010.

In the analyst's defense, their initial predictions were based off of the current generation consoles at the time(PS2 was untouchable, Xbox did decent, and GameCube had good games but overall did the worst of Nintendo consoles)
Now that the Analyst's actually have data to base their predictions off of they can almost accurately make their predictions, this one is a little to high for me.
My prediction is by the end of 2016
PS3: 105m
360: 90m
Wii: 135m

But that is based on the fact that PS3 will continue to sell until 2016 and 360 and Wii will already have stopped producing by 2012-2013

But by the end of 2012:
PS3: 74m
360: 70m
Wii: 123m

And for a more current reference by the end of 2010:
PS3: 46m
360:49m
Wii: 87m

Not my best prediction I will have to revise it later.

You forgot

Part 3.1 - GT5 is released, all past sales numbers go out the window.

Part 3.2 - With its release, significant majority of European HD console sales are PS3s.

If its released in Oct/Nov GT5 will effectivly kill holiday 360 sales in Europe.  I stand by this and always have. 

Everyone agrees that the jump to the next generation will not be as drastic as it was from last generation to this one.  Also there were a ton of good games that came out for the PS2 a couple years after the PS3 launched.  So even if a new console came out for 360 and PS3 in 2 years, I guarantee that there will still be awesome games that will be released 2 years from that point.

It would be one thing if just by massive expanding in the video game market the ps3 got up to those insane levels but also having the wii just die? So Nintendo would have to kill it. Why would Nintendo kill it? I don't see why a console that far ahead of the competition just coming to a stop. Plus Didn't the article also say the ps3 would pass the wii in 2013? So over the next 4 years the ps3 would not only have to sell much better than the previous 3 years but the wii would have to come to almost a stop. Even if it does slow down I doubt it could slow down by that much. Yes things like this are possible but just so very unlikely that it makes you wonder; who pays for this stuff?

Sorry I just dont think 1 game will push that much hardware.  First off already 40 million PS3s will already have been sold and a great deal of GT fans will have purchased a PS3 because they are also huge PS3 fans. Second with some 4 million GT5P sales already a bunch of those purchasers will be GT5 purchasers and wont purchase a new PS3 for GT5.

@TheNoobHolocaust,

So you think the PS3 will still be selling 3-4 years after the Wii and 360. That is delusional.  If the 360 is truly at 70M when the PS3 is at 74M no way MS discontinues the 360. In fact MS wont discontinue selling the 360 as long as it is profitable. They stopped selling the Xbox because it was never going to be profitable.