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Forums - Sales - Analyst predicts 127m PS3 sales

Demotruk on 09 March 2010
Gilgamesh said:
@Demotruk, What are you talking about a $299 PS3 didn't turn things around? The PS3 is up by quite a bit from last years numbers it went from selling 100K a week on average to 200K a week, in fact I think the PS3 is the only console up YOY. It turned things around big time, and that's not even the big price point. Usually 70% of a consoles sales happens when it's priced at $199 or less.

Turnaround as in turning the gen around, outperforming the Wii, which your numbers would start to do if you think the Wii has peaked and is in permanent decline. The 70% thing is going by the PS2, not losing consoles. Losing consoles tend to drop off quite fast. I know things are different this gen, but that also means you can't judge PS3's future sales by PS2's sales pattern, it is in a completely different situation.



A game I'm developing with some friends:

www.xnagg.com/zombieasteroids/publish.htm

It is largely a technical exercise but feedback is appreciated.

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Gilgamesh on 09 March 2010
Demotruk said:
Gilgamesh said:
@Demotruk, What are you talking about a $299 PS3 didn't turn things around? The PS3 is up by quite a bit from last years numbers it went from selling 100K a week on average to 200K a week, in fact I think the PS3 is the only console up YOY. It turned things around big time, and that's not even the big price point. Usually 70% of a consoles sales happens when it's priced at $199 or less.

Turnaround as in turning the gen around, outperforming the Wii, which your numbers would start to do if you think the Wii has peaked and is in permanent decline. The 70% thing is going by the PS2, not losing consoles. Losing consoles tend to drop off quite fast. I know things are different this gen, but that also means you can't judge PS3's future sales by PS2's sales pattern, it is in a completely different situation.

I gave two reasons of the Wii's decline not one. Nintendo may release a new HD version of the Wii, which would cause the Wii sales to have a sudden drop off.



Demotruk on 09 March 2010
Gilgamesh said:
Demotruk said:
Gilgamesh said:
@Demotruk, What are you talking about a $299 PS3 didn't turn things around? The PS3 is up by quite a bit from last years numbers it went from selling 100K a week on average to 200K a week, in fact I think the PS3 is the only console up YOY. It turned things around big time, and that's not even the big price point. Usually 70% of a consoles sales happens when it's priced at $199 or less.

Turnaround as in turning the gen around, outperforming the Wii, which your numbers would start to do if you think the Wii has peaked and is in permanent decline. The 70% thing is going by the PS2, not losing consoles. Losing consoles tend to drop off quite fast. I know things are different this gen, but that also means you can't judge PS3's future sales by PS2's sales pattern, it is in a completely different situation.

I gave two reasons of the Wii's decline not one. Nintendo may release a new HD version of the Wii, which would cause the Wii sales to have a sudden drop off.

But I didn't argue that the Wii wasn't in decline or wouldn't.



A game I'm developing with some friends:

www.xnagg.com/zombieasteroids/publish.htm

It is largely a technical exercise but feedback is appreciated.

Arius Dion on 09 March 2010
Buzzi said:
Arius Dion said:
Buzzi said:
We know the PS3 will be on markets for more years than Wii, that's pretty sure...but we don't know how it will sell after Wii2's launch...do they really think that if Wii 2 launches in 2012, with Wii Sports 3, NSMBW 2, Mario Kart Wii 2 and some other great games it won't become immediately the market leader? And if it is as powerful as a PS3 (quite possible, in 2012 at 250$ it would make profits from the beginning) why should customers buy a PS3 (considering the games which expand the audience are being published now, so in the next years the sales will be caused more by existing games than new ones) ? Wii eill sell over 100m before the new console launch, but then it son't stop selling, likely topping 110-120m. The PS3 I think will struggle to sell more than 90m LTD.

I don't think we know that at all. That's like saying back during the N64/PS1 era that: We know the N64 will be on the markets for more years than the PS1. Tech doesn't determine how long a product is on the market..the market (consumers) do. No third place console has lingered on the market after its successor is released, and no market leading console has ever puttered out after its successor has been released.

As for prof..If PS3 is only up 30% after the 100$ price cut/redesign compared to last year when sales were nothing to write home about, that's not to reassuring that PS3 will hit this mythical number.

But PS3 is starting selling now, and Sony still have to make profit on it...they won't cut it when the tecnology is extremely advanced (someone even says Wii 2 will not reach this power) and can sell a lot. But I think PS3 will sell well before the next generation, and then decline sharply...15-16m in these years is likely, for 2012-2013 is way difficult IMO.

Definitely entitled to your opinion but few things real quick; Someone even says the Wii 2 will not reach this power? Says who? Second, PS3's tech is not extremely advanced..not any more and will continue to become more and more obsolete as the months and years go by and come 2012 it will be comparable to what the PS2 is now. N64 was selling also and made Nintendo big profits, not just breaking even like Sony still isn't doing on the PS3. And again, historically no third place or 'losing' console has ever lingered into the next gen and has been cut off rather suddenly. The idea that "Sony Consoles sell for ten years" isn't accurate because it doesn't matter if its Sony's, Nintendo's or whoevers console, if its the market leading console it will last as long as the market allows. IMO of course.



Bet between Slimbeast and Arius Dion about Wii sales 2009:


If the Wii sells less than 20 million in 2009 (as defined by VGC sales between week ending 3d Jan 2009 to week ending 4th Jan 2010) Slimebeast wins and get to control Arius Dion's sig for 1 month.

If the Wii sells more than 20 million in 2009 (as defined above) Arius Dion wins and gets to control Slimebeast's sig for 1 month.

saicho on 09 March 2010
Gilgamesh said:
Demotruk said:
Gilgamesh said:
@Demotruk, What are you talking about a $299 PS3 didn't turn things around? The PS3 is up by quite a bit from last years numbers it went from selling 100K a week on average to 200K a week, in fact I think the PS3 is the only console up YOY. It turned things around big time, and that's not even the big price point. Usually 70% of a consoles sales happens when it's priced at $199 or less.

Turnaround as in turning the gen around, outperforming the Wii, which your numbers would start to do if you think the Wii has peaked and is in permanent decline. The 70% thing is going by the PS2, not losing consoles. Losing consoles tend to drop off quite fast. I know things are different this gen, but that also means you can't judge PS3's future sales by PS2's sales pattern, it is in a completely different situation.

I gave two reasons of the Wii's decline not one. Nintendo may release a new HD version of the Wii, which would cause the Wii sales to have a sudden drop off.

While it might be true that Nintendo willl never ship 26 mil units of Wii a year again as you mentioned that "by the looks of it the Wii may have already peaked.", it also counters the arguement that consoles would peak after it reaches $199. If Wii can be an exception of the case, it is possible for PS3 to be the exception of the case as well.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

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Demotruk on 09 March 2010
RolStoppable said:
@Demotruk

I am in agreement with you that the fifth year won't be the PS3's peak year. My only point was that it's very likely that this year, the fourth, will be it. This would fall in line with the 360, the console with the most similar circumstances, which had its best year in 2009 (at least I think that was the case).

Well, as theprof pointed out it's more likely to have a fourth year peak by full years, since it includes November and December of 09.

But I think people are overoptimistic about 2010. So far it's up YoY on a weekly basis, but every week it's up less. GoW3 should give it momentum in March, but it's not going to carry momentum for the five month period following it's release. YoY comparisons will continue to get worse and eventually turn negative, the earlier Microsoft makes a move the moreso.

 

Edit: I look at relative YoY comparisons these days because in retrospect, if we had looked at them for Wii we would have seen the Wii's troubles coming as early as 2008.



A game I'm developing with some friends:

www.xnagg.com/zombieasteroids/publish.htm

It is largely a technical exercise but feedback is appreciated.

Cheebee on 09 March 2010

Good god, what do all these 'analysts' base all this silliness on? It's hilarious. XD



Nintendo Network ID: Cheebee   3DS Code: 2320 - 6113 - 9046

 

Viper1 on 09 March 2010
Cheebee said:
Good god, what do all these 'analysts' base all this silliness on? It's hilarious. XD

Corporate PR. 



The rEVOLution is not being televised

Demotruk on 09 March 2010
RolStoppable said:
@Demotruk

The 360 went into 2009 under very similar circumstances and managed to maintain a growth year over year despite the PS3 picking up steam later on in the year. It's not that we disagree, I don't believe myself that the PS3 will have an outstanding year in 2010, i.e. 15+m. But something like 13-14m is probable.

If MS makes a move as late as September, then the circumstances will be very similar but they're in a position to make one much sooner. And it could be more than just a price cut, it could also be a slim model (though I think they'll save that in particular for Natal).



A game I'm developing with some friends:

www.xnagg.com/zombieasteroids/publish.htm

It is largely a technical exercise but feedback is appreciated.

TWRoO on 09 March 2010
theprof00 said:
thx1139 said:

Thats great, but this is comparing the $400 PS3 of early 2009 to the $300 PS3 of early 2010.  Come September those number will really change and the YTD numbers will stop trending upward just like the 360 did the previous year.  January and February 2009 the 360 was up on 2008 by 500,000 units.

Ok, so you think that the numbers will go down?

Also, it doesn't matter which way you spin it, the slim's sales fall in ps3's 4th year. If you want to start with full years or calendar years. If you count calendar years, 2009 was ps3s fourth year, and if you count full years from release, nov 2009 was the start of the fourth year. Calendar wise, ps3s fourth year is it's peak (so far). Release wise, ps3 is already 2.5M over it's 3rd year.

But but but.... Crazzy proved that only full calendar years count =)=)=)