PSP serves purposes other than playing legitimately bought games. Piracy is a reason to buy a PSP as was video/music etc., while it was much cheaper than an iphone/ipod touch etc. Not so much these days though.

PS3 doesn't have an equivalent alternative function. Yes, it's a bluray player, but there are much cheaper bluray players out there. It has some other functionality, but most is better done by a laptop or something else. PS3 is forced to sell on the games, which aren't so appealing beyond the core audience shared by Microsoft. Arc could change that in theory, but colour me skeptical that Sony first party or third parties are going to turn Arc into the new Wii (for a number of reasons I'm sure you already appreciate).

well, unless wii continues to sell for a 10 year period in major countries, he's right.

Hmmm

Not if neither does.

well yeah, obviously.

True. But that should imply a sales pattern *like* a leading console but with smaller numbers. The norm is to peak on the third full year, which is exactly what the PS3 has done unless it somehow peaks this year or next. Both PS3 and 360 should have a good tail after they peak, PS3 moreso due to being perceived as the higher value console, because they fill a purpose that the Wii does not.

None of that implies we should see continual growth until the fifth year or beyond.

So again why in the world are they waiting to get an HDTV before they buy a PS3?  It's not like you need an HDTV for the PS3 to work.

You do know that the day after they launch a console that they begin work on the next console, don't you?

And that goes for all 3 of them.   You think all their engineers and design people take a 2-3 year vacation?

Based on what you prjected, PS3 needs an extra 2 mil per year in order to meet the projection from SACHD. Highly unlikely...

"one unless it somehow peaks this year or next."

Ps3 is already up nearly 30%

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 04th Jan 2009 to 28th Feb 2009:

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 03rd Jan 2010 to 27th Feb 2010:

or were you talking about full years from launch?

Because starting last November, ps3 is in it's fourth year. And already up like 100%

Wii was up this time last year too.

PS3 should be up for the first half of the year, but I think it'll start making losses at the end of the year as MS steals some thunder and they face a tougher comparison with a stronger latter half of last year.