http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aUlmjLlsp37s 

I know, I know this Bloomberg article has been referenced before, but please, Mr Mod, don't lock this thread yet. I've found some other interesting nugget in it that put some perspective on what Nintendo is going to sell this quarter:

 Nintendo plans to maintain its holiday production rate of 1.8 million a month through the first quarter of 2008 to see if consumers will continue buying, Harrison said. The rate compares to about 1 million a month during last year's holidays, he said. 

So this is pretty definite data from Nintendo. They're going to ship no more than 5.4 million Wiis this quarter, but they will try to ship just as much next quarter, depending on how much the market can take. That puts a lid on some wild speculations regarding Christmas sales. Max figures are:

End of 2007 - 18.6 million units

End of March 2008 - 24 million units 

They probably won't sell 5.4 million Wiis to consumers in Jan to Mar, but the supply chain still needs at least 1 million units to be healthy (maybe more, depends on sell-out status in Europe over Christmas). Add some Smash Bros and Wii Fit, and you just might see Nintendo actually selling 5 million consoles in the slow months after Christmas, which would be unprecedented. Nintendo are trying their luck to be less dependent on the year-end seasonality. 

24 million is well below their estimate LTD by March 08. Their estimates have always been very conservative. I think you're underestimating how many will be available for the holidays.

I think they could sell out all the way to March on the strength of Smash Bros. alone. Wii Fit just clinches it. I wish they were making 4 million a month just so we could see exactly where the demand caps off.  Depending on what third parties do, it could continue selling out well into '08. 

WiiFit will do them a lot of good in Japan and probably also in Europe. How much of a system seller Smash Bros is going to be remains to be seen. We know it's a fan favorite, but how many consoles can it sell? Once the numbers for the Galaxy release in the US are in we will know how much the classic franchises can pull. Not much in Japan that's for sure.

Reverie,

When asked if that estimate was supply constrained, he said it was not. So, they shown they were thinking they could produce more than that if needed.

That said, many months after that, they did announce they had a lot more production problems than expected and were not able to ramp up production as quickly as they wanted...

They're production has been near 1.8 million per month for a while now, it must have been, since the production can't ramp up that quickly. Yet WW sales are nowhere near this number.

This points to the fact that Nintendo must be stockpiling systems for Christmas. Going by Bod's anecdotal evidence from TRU, I think the stockpiling theory is most likely. 20 million + end of year is likely.

jlauro,
What are Nintendo statement you referring too? My Phil Harrison quote is from last Thursday, so I believe the are currently producing 1.8 million per month.

i always wonder... if they've got extra stock, how much it costs to send the white colored wiis to a paintshop? hehe.

omgwtfbbq
Hehe. Well I think this is clear evidence against stockpiling. That's why I bothered to dig it out actually. The way I see it Nintendo have now confirmed that they don't intend to reach their shipment forecasts with a shipment explosion just for Christmas but rather with measured shipment increases. The very fact that they want to ship 5 million units in the quarter after Christmas takes a lot of oomph out of the stockpiling theory.