Well for me, sales wise

Heavy Rain>Alan Wake, just as likely Alan Wake>Heavy Rain. Hard to call that one.
God of war 3>Halo:Reach, No. otherway around.
Wii>Natal. Hi im mr obvious
Gran Turismo>Forza. Just like Heavy rain/A Wake, this is to hard to call.

I agree with you on the Alan Wake/Heavy Rain one, as outside of the "mainstream" gaming community - I don't think many people know about either of these games, all my friends who are "casual" gamers would have no clue about these games, my one friend actually told me that I am the only reason he knows about games that are coming out, and if he heard it from another source before me he would be dissapointed :)

Now - on the Gran Turismo/Forza point, I must wholeheartedly disagree.  GT will probably outsell Forza in Europe alone - within the first month :P

Alan Wake>Heavy Rain. Alan Wake will outsell Heavy Rain.
Fable 3>God of War 3. Fable 3 will outsell God of War 3
Natal>Sony Wand. Natal has more too often and more marketing = more sales.
Halo: Reach>Gran Turismo 5. Halo: Reach will outsell Gran Turismo 5.

The PS3 cant close the gap in 2010. Only VGC adjustments can make that happen.

Which i believe will be coming.

Anouther stock running low story, this time in the UK

http://www.computerandvideogames.com/article.php?id=235319?cid=OTC-RSS&attr=CVG-General-RSS

It's hard to sell with shortages. The demand is high but Sony isn't there to meet it. People will either wait or buy another system. I just hope Sony mass produces in March because thats when Final Fantasy is out, and thats a pretty big key PS3 item. Same with God of War 3.

So, 360 will obviously have a good shot and taking this lead beyond 2011 with Natal and Sony's shortages. That is unless Sony cuts to down to $200... then MS would be in trouble.

As i said, "stock running low story" i also dont believe it but i do think PS3 will be adjusted up by about a mill with in the year