GPU failure rates as listed here: http://www.techpowerup.com/88515/Study_Modern_Graphics_Card_Failure_Rates.html
- GTX 280 10%
- GTX 260 4.5%
- 8800/9800 3.25-3.5%
- HD 4870 3.25%
- HD 4850 2%
- HD 3870 2.5%
So which ought to be your vendor of choice? Note: The Fermi cards are likely to be even hotter than the GTX 280. So do you believe an expensive and hot card like that would have a similar failure rate to the GTX 280? Up to you.
Tease.