No, I do not believe the game will go on to sell as well as Uncharted 2 or MGS4, but I do believe that it will do well and exceed many people's expectations. The game will definitely be a critical success (as you can see from the reviews that are already pouring in) and this critical success and word of mouth will make sure that the game will do well. Mix this up with a couple of Kevin Butler commercials and I'm sure we have a game that can make some profit. I do not think that the first week will be too hot; I'm estimating about 400K (which is higher than a lot of your expectations) but the following weeks and months will be very steady due to the positive vibe about it. It's something new and I'm sure many consumers will be willing to check this game out. I'm estimating a minimum of 1.5M LTD and it could even cross 2M if the promotional campaign for it is good. Fingers crossed for this title, it will rock!

EDIT: I'm just editing this thread I made a bit before the game's release and almost everyone ridiculed me on my prediction about the game being a success. I predicted 400K first week and 1.5-2 million LTD...although I'm ecstatic that my prediction came true, I'm happier that the game got the success it deserves...HR is truly a remarkable and unique experience from start to finish and deserves all the critical and commercial acclaim it will get, and then some!

me 2

it wont

If Heavy Rain does 1.5 - 2 Million LTD, its going to exceed expectations IMO.

At least give reasons for saying it wont.

OT: It's started well. Wont be everyones cup of tea... But i think it can at least get a 90 on Metacritic. It's sitting at 95 right now.

Hell, going over 1 million would be exceeding expectations.

the game will do 2 million LTD quite easily in fact. I'm willing to bet the JAPANESE will buy this NON-JAPANASE game, and that will make all the difference (over 300K LTD in Japan).

W0w! Here comes the haters.  You are kind of early, did not expect you till at least the second page .  Why are you in a tread of a game you are not going to purchase and don't even like?  Don't you have like some smash brothers or that new super mario game that came out to play?

@ avarice: he is free to think that. Most people would probably jump in the air if this title went on to sell over a million. It's not exactly the genre and the type of gameplay that spurs lots of people to storm the store. If it's over a million, it's great. 1.5 million / 2 million is just awesome for this game.

For some reason I think it has a "defining game of this generation" factor to it, that I don't get from other games.