VG Chartz has the Wii at 457,886 sold in Japan for 2009 and the PS3 is at 445,182 up until now. According to Media Create and Dengeki the PS3 has already surpassed the Wii in total sales for 2009 in Japan by about 15K.

So what do you think the sales are going to be for the Wii and PS3 in Japan for 2009?

My prediction:

(Reason for high PS3 number is because I believe we'll see a Slim PS3 this year in Japan along with a price cut and both Final Fantasy XIII and Gran Turismo 5 will be released in 2009.)

(Reason for low Wii numbers is because of the lack of big system selling software for 2009, and because the Wii is selling a quarter of what it sold in the first 4 months of 2007 and 2008)

But let's not forget E3 could change everything for either console.

Provided, Nintendo actually releases some games for Japan in the second half of the year ... I'll tend to take their side on this.

I don't think the Slim PS3 is coming out this year, but maybe a price cut...

there's also a good chance FF13 will be bundled with a PS3.

I don't think Nintendo will be as passive as people think in second half 2009. 

Iwata does not take to failure kindly, they are going to take the gloves off. 

I would expect new Wii colors for Japan for the first time with Monster Hunter 3 and even potentially a Monster Hunter 3 bundle. 

Also Wii Fit Plus and Wii Sports Resort both in the second half of the year. 

The PS3 is barely able to keep pace with the Wii even when the Wii is in a huge slump and hasn't had any major new releases in 6 months and the PS3 has one of its best stretches of software releases ever. What does that tell you. 

So many unknowns, there's lot of things could happen, but I'll put my money on Ps3, Final Fantasy 13 should give quite a huge boost, or Nintendo wakes up, and do something.

Wii has more concrete mega-hits with Wii Sports Resort and Monster Hunter 3. I'm not convinced that both FF and GT will hit this year, but if they do, it could be a close race. Otherwise, I expect Wii to pull out ahead at the end of the year like DS did vs. PSP last year.

That fact would tell you something if it were not for the price difference between the two consoles. The only way I see the PS3 beating out the Wii, is if there's a pricecut to complement the software. Either way, I don't think there will be a huge gap when the year is over.

Already have a bet with Zlejedi on this.

@Gilgamesh
With your expectation for PS3, PS3 will need to sell 2 million units for the rest of the year... which means PS3 needs to average ~55K units per week...

Since PS3 was released, it has sold over 55K units 3 times last year and peaked at 77K when MGS4 was released... If the Slim PS3 and price cut don't happen soon, I just don't see how it's possible for PS3 to average 55K while it's around 20K or less when there is no blockbuster game release...

I would think it can go either way!
PS3 is getting very good games this year; along with that more and more people are getting interested in buying one. I'm predicting that the Playstation 3 will pull about 2.5-3 million units from Japan in 2009 because of FFXIII. However the Wii is still the number one selling console, Nintendo might have a trick or two up it's sleeve.

My predictions for 2009
PS3- 3 million units in Japan
Wii- 2-2.5 million units in Japan

I agree with this. Here are my big factors:

1. Price cut for PS3. This would be big heading into the holiday season

2. What's left? Heading into Fall, what will actually release this year? FF13 and Tales of Graces are both very likely to slip into 2010. However, they both can release along with GT5. We also must consider possible announcements. I can see a Pikmin 3 or a Mario Party 9. I can also see a Dynasty Warriors 7 and Hot Shots Golf 6. All four of these game would really push hardware.

3. The Japanese Economy. Will it pick up by the end of the year? If so, then we can expect higher sales across the board.