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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 18 January 2020

curl-6 on 22 January 2020
Bofferbrauer2 said:
curl-6 said:

Those mid-tier releases are nice to have, but I was talking about big, system selling titles.

Big games alone do squat if there are no mid tiers in between to back them up. Sure, the big guns are still missing, but the mid cards are there already. If Nintendo just brings one or two more big games, it's gold.

Games like No More Heroes 3 aren't going to push hardware momentum though, for that you need games like Animal Crossing, BOTW2, or past examples like Pokemon and Smash. All i was saying is that as of now, those other big games they'll need to keep sales high throughout the year haven't been confirmed, so their currently announced lineup is very weak.



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Dulfite on 22 January 2020
curl-6 said:

Bloody hell, Switch is on a rampage.

Radek said:
Wow the gap between Switch and Xbox One is already 5 millions..

After so long watching Switch catching up to Xbone it still looks strange to me to see Switch already so far ahead.

xMetroid said:

That's crazy... I had doubts of 2020 not being the peak but tbh the only chance is if the lineup for the year doesnt change but there is no way it's going to happen.

What "lineup", Animal Crossing is literally the only big game confirmed for Switch this year as of now.

That's because Nintendo has no problem announcing a game and then releasing it 3-6 months later. Unless a game had a major delay, like MP4, they are rather quick at releasing after announcing compared to the other companies. They are probably loaded this year and none of us know what's going to hit us.

Even still, I think AC ALONE, with the games already out will move at least 15 million devices. They don't even have to release anymore new games this year and they could not 15 million consoles sold with AC, imo.



curl-6 on 22 January 2020
Dulfite said:
curl-6 said:

Bloody hell, Switch is on a rampage.

After so long watching Switch catching up to Xbone it still looks strange to me to see Switch already so far ahead.

What "lineup", Animal Crossing is literally the only big game confirmed for Switch this year as of now.

That's because Nintendo has no problem announcing a game and then releasing it 3-6 months later. Unless a game had a major delay, like MP4, they are rather quick at releasing after announcing compared to the other companies. They are probably loaded this year and none of us know what's going to hit us.

Even still, I think AC ALONE, with the games already out will move at least 15 million devices. They don't even have to release anymore new games this year and they could not 15 million consoles sold with AC, imo.

Coming off a 20 million year I think they should be aiming to do a bit better than 15m though. :P



Bofferbrauer2 on 22 January 2020
curl-6 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Big games alone do squat if there are no mid tiers in between to back them up. Sure, the big guns are still missing, but the mid cards are there already. If Nintendo just brings one or two more big games, it's gold.

Games like No More Heroes 3 aren't going to push hardware momentum though, for that you need games like Animal Crossing, BOTW2, or past examples like Pokemon and Smash. All i was saying is that as of now, those other big games they'll need to keep sales high throughout the year haven't been confirmed, so their currently announced lineup is very weak.

Not on their own, that's right. They don't push sales and the baseline weekly sales up. But they keep the baseline from dropping down again, and as such are invaluable for the total sales in a given year.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

curl-6 on 22 January 2020
Bofferbrauer2 said:
curl-6 said:

Games like No More Heroes 3 aren't going to push hardware momentum though, for that you need games like Animal Crossing, BOTW2, or past examples like Pokemon and Smash. All i was saying is that as of now, those other big games they'll need to keep sales high throughout the year haven't been confirmed, so their currently announced lineup is very weak.

Not on their own, that's right. They don't push sales and the baseline weekly sales up. But they keep the baseline from dropping down again, and as such are invaluable for the total sales in a given year.

They do help, yes, but the big games are ultimately more important, especially when it comes to hitting big numbers like the 20 million they achieved in 2019 and should be able to achieve again this year if they play their cards right.



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Dulfite on 22 January 2020
curl-6 said:
Dulfite said:

That's because Nintendo has no problem announcing a game and then releasing it 3-6 months later. Unless a game had a major delay, like MP4, they are rather quick at releasing after announcing compared to the other companies. They are probably loaded this year and none of us know what's going to hit us.

Even still, I think AC ALONE, with the games already out will move at least 15 million devices. They don't even have to release anymore new games this year and they could not 15 million consoles sold with AC, imo.

Coming off a 20 million year I think they should be aiming to do a bit better than 15m though. :P

Of course they will because they have more than just AC this year. I think they could hit as much as 25 million consoles this year.



LGBTDBZBBQ on 22 January 2020
Bofferbrauer2 said:
curl-6 said:

Those mid-tier releases are nice to have, but I was talking about big, system selling titles.

Big games alone do squat if there are no mid tiers in between to back them up. Sure, the big guns are still missing, but the mid cards are there already. If Nintendo just brings one or two more big games, it's gold.

I don't think those games are considered as mid-tier sellers for Nintendo Switch. 


Mega-tier(11-20m seller)= Zelda BOTW, SMO, MK8D, Pokemon Let's Go P/E, Pokemon SwSh, and Animal Crossing
Top-tier(5-10m seller) = Splatoon 2, SMP, LM3, NSMBUD, MM2, and LA
Mid-tier(2-4m seller) = ARMS, 1-2 Switch, Yoshi CW, Xenoblade 2, RFA, and FE3H
Low-tier(0.5-1m seller) = Astral Chain, DQ11s, DXM, and MUA.  



zorg1000 on 22 January 2020
curl-6 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Big games alone do squat if there are no mid tiers in between to back them up. Sure, the big guns are still missing, but the mid cards are there already. If Nintendo just brings one or two more big games, it's gold.

Games like No More Heroes 3 aren't going to push hardware momentum though, for that you need games like Animal Crossing, BOTW2, or past examples like Pokemon and Smash. All i was saying is that as of now, those other big games they'll need to keep sales high throughout the year haven't been confirmed, so their currently announced lineup is very weak.

I'm thinking Animal Crossing in March and Breath of the Wild 2 in November will be the major big hitters this year with a handful of mid-tier titles in between. Some relatively niche hardcore titles, a couple Mario games, another Wii U port or two, a few eshop titles and a random surprise like Labo or Ring Fit.

March-Animal Crossing

May-Xenoblade DE

June-3D World Deluxe

July-Bravely Default 2

Aug-Pikmin 3 Deluxe

Sept-2D Metroid

Oct-Paper Mario & ND Cube party game (Wii Party spiritual successor)

Nov-Breath of the Wild 2

Something like this



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

curl-6 on 22 January 2020
Dulfite said:
curl-6 said:

Coming off a 20 million year I think they should be aiming to do a bit better than 15m though. :P

Of course they will because they have more than just AC this year. I think they could hit as much as 25 million consoles this year.

Possible, but they'll need at least two more massive killer apps as well as Animal Crossing to reach that, plus probably a price cut, hardware revision, or both.



curl-6 on 22 January 2020
zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

Games like No More Heroes 3 aren't going to push hardware momentum though, for that you need games like Animal Crossing, BOTW2, or past examples like Pokemon and Smash. All i was saying is that as of now, those other big games they'll need to keep sales high throughout the year haven't been confirmed, so their currently announced lineup is very weak.

I'm thinking Animal Crossing in March and Breath of the Wild 2 in November will be the major big hitters this year with a handful of mid-tier titles in between. Some relatively niche hardcore titles, a couple Mario games, another Wii U port or two, a few eshop titles and a random surprise like Labo or Ring Fit.

March-Animal Crossing

May-Xenoblade DE

June-3D World Deluxe

July-Bravely Default 2

Aug-Pikmin 3 Deluxe

Sept-2D Metroid

Oct-Paper Mario & ND Cube party game (Wii Party spiritual successor)

Nov-Breath of the Wild 2

Something like this

Hmmmm, kinda hope they have more original /A-tier titles than this, but if 2D Metroid is a new game instead of just a remaster of Super/Fusion and if BOTW2 does indeed arrive this year, plus if we get some more current gen ports sprinkled in between in addition to Doom Eternal and Outer Worlds, I'll hardly be in a position to complain. (Plus of course I'd do unspeakable things for Bayo 3 to come out this year haha)