Quantcast
Tracking The Rise (Or Fall?) of Skywalker

Forums - Movies Discussion - Tracking The Rise (Or Fall?) of Skywalker

thismeintiel said:

ROS made $15.1M on its 4th weekend. This is 31.7% lower than the $22.1M that Rogue One made in the corresponding weekend. Currently, ROS sits at $478.2M at the DBO, 0.2% higher than RO's $477.4M for the same point in time. If this continues, ROS will make end up with a DBO total of $533.3M vs RO's $532.2M.

Also, that Rogue One total is before you factor in three years of inflation between its release and now. In other words, if current trends continue, The Rise of Skywalker will not only fail to catch up to the total ticket sales of The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi, but also (domestically at least) to those of Rogue One even. The grand finale of a mainline, Skywalker Saga trilogy, likely to be bested at the American box office by a side story. Now that is pitiful.



Around the Network
thismeintiel said:
S.Peelman said:
I just saw a rumor video that speaks about the release of an extended cut next month or so, more or less similar to what they did with Endgame. Don’t know what to think about that.

Saw a similar vid. If it happens, it's just desperation at this point. Endgame did the same thing to get it over Avatar. Considering Endgame was a much more popular movie, and its rerelease didn't help it too much, I doubt this will do much for ROS. The interest just isn't there.

Might help it go from a $1.1B movie to a $1.11B movie.

Yeah, my thoughts exactly. It’s interesting though, I’d go see it at least if only to satisfy curiosity.



Going to do an update today before the weekend, since a milestone has been crossed. ROS has just passed $1B WW. ROS's DBO total has also dropped below RO's for the same point in time.

ROS sits at $481.3M at the DBO. This is 0.1% lower than RO's $481.7M. If this continues, ROS will end up with a DBO total of $531.7M vs RO's $532.2M.

Currently, the FBO makes up 51.9% of the WW BO. If this continues, ROS will end up with a FBO of $578.3M, 10.4% higher than RO's $523.9M. A WW total of $1.11B, 4.7% higher than RO's $1.06B.



S.Peelman said:
I just saw a rumor video that speaks about the release of an extended cut next month or so, more or less similar to what they did with Endgame. Don’t know what to think about that.

I'd wait to see wether the deleted scenes are included in the movie and it is an extended cut rather than what Mr.GameCrazy below suggested it may be... Just a behind the scenes after the credits...

Not worth the price of admission.



ironmanDX said:
S.Peelman said:
I just saw a rumor video that speaks about the release of an extended cut next month or so, more or less similar to what they did with Endgame. Don’t know what to think about that.

I'd wait to see wether the deleted scenes are included in the movie and it is an extended cut rather than what Mr.GameCrazy below suggested it may be... Just a behind the scenes after the credits...

Not worth the price of admission.

It would be cool if there truly is an extended cut of the film with deleted scenes (rather than being after the credits), but I honestly don't expect that to happen. 

Last edited by Mr.GameCrazy - on 15 January 2020

Around the Network

Crawled its way to a billion... Missed opportunity regardless. Imagine if Disney actually made a good trilogy that a great majority loved. RoS could have been a bigger hit.



If anything, TROS, and Disney-era Star Wars in general, is an excellent example of the importance of the calendar, especially for films released in December. I know some people are dismissive of the effects of the calendar, but it's just a simple fact of the matter. Christmas Day, Memorial Day, New Year's Day, MLK Day, President's Day, Valentine's Day, Labor Day, and Columbus Day are all days that give a boost to the box office. Meanwhile, Christmas Eve is a bad day (which is why TLJ had such a big drop in its second weekend). And of those days, Christmas, New Year's, and Valentine's are the only ones with fixed dates. And Christmas & New Year's happen to be most relevant to Disney-era Star Wars. Also worth pointing out is that the box office experiences a big drop after New Year's Day (though, oddly, that is delayed by a day if Jan. 2 falls on a Monday). Every December release will have a rough week after New Year's.

I've pointed out before that The Force Awakens' first week was a relatively low percentage of its lifetime gross compared to most other recent blockbusters, but that its gross past its fourth week was much lower relative to its lifetime gross than those other films; also, among the ten largest films of the 21st century and among all new Star Wars films, it had the second largest percent drop from Week 2 to Week 3. Why? January happened, and it happened at a specific enough time to have that effect. January is a bad month for the box office, and any December film is going to feel it to some extent. Even a movie as famously leggy as Avatar had the biggest week-over-week drop of its first two months in the week of Jan. 1-7. After New Year's, theater attendance drops significantly, people returning to work and school from their holiday vacations serving to pump the brakes on the box office big time.

This is quite relevant to The Rise of Skywalker, because that movie came out on Dec. 20, later in the month of December than any other Disney-era Star Wars film. It had only 12 days to benefit from December, compared to 14 days for The Force Awakens, 16 days for Rogue One, and 17 days for The Last Jedi. Those few days can make a big impact. After its first 12 days, TROS made only 7.7% less than what TLJ did in its first 12 days, which isn't bad (and, to be fair, Christmas Day happening on its sixth day instead of its eleventh did help it a bit, though Christmas being in its first week is also a big reason why its drop in Week 2 was larger than that of TFA, TLJ, and R1). But it got worse after those 12 days. TLJ having 17 days to benefit from December also meant it got three full weekends in December, capping off its 18th day with New Year's Day. Meanwhile, TROS's 18th day was Jan. 6. By then, the post-New Year's drop had already taken the wind out of its sails. This caused TROS to have a third weekend drop of 52.3%, vs. only 26.6% for TLJ (TFA meanwhile had a 39.5% drop its third weekend, which was less bad than it could have been thanks to NYD being that Friday). While it was still lagging TLJ a bit, TROS debuting five days later in December than TLJ did really hurt it in terms of launch-aligned comparisons (indeed, I admit I failed to take into account the calendar myself, causing me to be overly optimistic on my projections for TROS's lifetime gross). But for what it's worth, TROS is so far having a much better January than TLJ did, pulling in 21% more for the Jan. 1-14 period than TLJ did for the same period in 2018. Granted, that could be at least in part to the offset dates, but still. And though it won't be enough to offset the big difference in total December grosses caused by the five-day offset in release dates (TROS made $390.7M last month, while TLJ made $517.2M in Dec. 2017), but it's something.

Could TROS have matched or even beaten TLJ had it debuted a week earlier? Maybe, maybe not. There's no way of knowing for sure. But it almost certainly would have performed better than it has so far if it had benefited from spending 19 days in December instead of 12. Disney really should have released the movie on Dec. 13 instead (and FWIW, maybe Disney should have stuck to the traditional May releases for Star Wars). But what's done is done, and it's hard to fault TROS's box office results on its own merits as a film (or on the reactions of certain audience members still stewing over TLJ) when the gap between it and TLJ appears to be mostly the result of a bad calendar. That's not to say that some people haven't sworn off Star Wars entirely after TLJ, but I think it can be assumed that the impact on TROS from such people is likely greatly overstated.

P.S.: Regarding "disappointments," there is such a thing as unrealistic expectations (there's also such a thing as citing your sources when you speak as if you have knowledge of a company's expectations). When adjusted to the Q1 2019 average ticket price of $9.01, only three films this century have grossed more than $700M domestically, and only 25 (26 within the next 2-3 weeks) have grossed more than $500M. Even over the past 45 years, only 12 films have surpassed $700M adjusted, and of those only seven have exceeded $800M. Just putting things into perspective for anyone who thinks Episodes VIII & IX "ought" to have done $700-800M domestic.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 17 January 2020

ROS made an estimated $8.37M in its 5th weekend at the DBO. That's 38% lower than RO's $13.5M in its 5th weekend. ROS currently sits at $492M. This is 1.3% lower than RO's $498.6M for the same point in time. If this continues, ROS will end up with a DBO total of $525.3M vs RO's $532.2M.

Currently, ROS's FBO makes up 51.9% of the WW total. If this continues, ROS will end up with a FBO total of $564.7M, 7.8% higher than RO's $523.9M. A WW total of $1.09B, 2.8% higher than RO's $1.06B.

A quick comparison to TLJ is in order because it just crossed another "milestone." ROS has also fallen $100.1M behind TLJ's DBO total for the same point in time. Its FBO fallen $138.8M behind TLJ's. A total WW deficit of ~$240M.



There's a reason people dismiss the calendar argument. It's completely ridiculous. The calendar isn't going to stop people from coming to watch your film, if it is popular and, more importantly, good. Sure, it can play with your drops somewhat, but if people can't come because it is Xmas Eve, they will just watch it at another time. Absolutely NO ONE is going to say, "Oh man, I can't wait to watch TLJ. Oh, but wait, today I have to go shopping. Well, I guess I'll never watch it, now."

Again, ridiculous to even act like that is a thing. No, what kills your movie's legs is putting out a mediocre/poor product and bad word of mouth getting out about it. There is no reason that an ok Jumanji sequel should have better legs than a main episode in what was the largest movie brand.



And some people reject perfectly valid scientific theories because they think they're "ridiculous." But not liking the truth doesn't make it stop being the truth. The calendar matters. For every movie. Whether you like it or not. Period. The only reason anybody anyone is arguing otherwise is because some director or producer pissed in their cereal.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 19 January 2020