Well that's quite the leap in logic. Admitting that you don't know for certain how long it will take > Not willing to take scrutiny. Although my original post might need some editing looking back on it , but damn, you didn't need to be that harsh about it. My prediction is already in my original post plain as day. I'm not hiding my OP. Criticize it if you want.
I'm just saying if you're going to be confrontational the least you could do is explain yourself ...
But considering the XB1 has sold anywhere from 60k to 100k on a weekly basis, and also conisdering holiday sales, anywhere from 7-8.5 million is likely this year. Then the Xbox will be at about 37-38.5 million by the beginning of 2018. All things considered I think XB1 will begin 2019 (as in, in march time) with about 44 or 45.5 million. From there I expect sales of 5.5 million, it will be a slower year for Xbox in 2019. This will lead to 49.5 or 51 million sales as of march 2020.
7M Xbox One systems does sound fairly realistic when we factor in X1X also but it's already sold around 3M units this year so so that'll put the platform at ~34M units by the end of 2017 ...
Nintendo's predictions have the Switch selling about 13 million in it's 1st year. I think it might do a little bit better than that but just on the safe side i'll say it will sell 13 million. The Switch is currently outpassing the DS and 3DS, although iirc not outpacing the Wii. Part of that is due to both those systems launching with continous problems, but one thing that is always noticably is how all three of those systems had a huge growth in their second year. Switch will most likely do 18 in 2018, with 19-21 million the following fiscal year, giving it a total of 50 million or 52 million by March 2020. Which means it will either beat Xb1 exactly 3 years after release, or some time later in 2020.
I realize though that this is just my prediction and that it's not necessarily how things will play out. Maybe four years isn't as ridiculous as I originally thought.
Gotta be careful when you use the word 'year'. In your case you define year as in 'fiscal year' but the Switch released in the last fiscal at the start of March selling 2.4M units until the end of March which marked the end of a fiscal year. (Comparison would've been a lot easier if we were using regular defined years from Jan to Dec but whatever, this just complicates things on my end.)
While the Switch is currently ahead it won't have the advantage in price (3DS price cut in August) or plentiful revisions (DS lite introduced in summer 2006) either to drive growth or maintain high volume and it shows ... (The 13M figure is also shipped for next year at the end of March too.)
When 3DS had it's price cut in August it was able to more than double it's sales rate in comparison to previous months and was able to sell a total of OVER 12M units from the beginning of 2011 to the end of 2011 to consumers according to this sites data ... (The fact that Nintendo only expects 13M units shipped for the end of the fiscal year while 3DS almost met that volume on sold to consumers in December(!) means that Nintendo is expecting the Switch to eventually trail the 3DS by nearly 3 months during that timeframe!)
DS systems sold a total 10.5M units in 2005 but all that changed in 2006 when Nintendo introduced DS lite which went on to become the most popular SKU of the platform which pushed sales of DS systems to over 20M units in 2006. (That's a growth of over 90+% compared to the previous year!) However, this was not true on the 3DS in which it was the original system that was the most popular SKU and I don't imagine the Switch being comparable to either situation since we don't expect revisions so soon for the Switch, period ...
What's more is that you're expecting the Switch to double PS4's performance in growth (20% more units sold in 2015 vs 2014) in a smaller time frame too ... (13 months including launch vs 12 months)
You are LITERALLY expecting Switch shipments to grow by nearly 40% by next fiscal year compared to this fiscal year INCLUDING the launch too while PS4 was only able to sell 20% more units in it's second year (2015) compared to first year (2014) ... (Doing roughly 40% more in 12 months compared to the 13 months which had a launch event too and no price drops or revision also ?! What ?!)
At that point Sony should call it quits when nearly every advantage is given to them yet somehow Nintendo will manage to do much more in less time ...