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Make your call: how long until Switch exceeds "X1family".

Forums - Sales Discussion - Make your call: how long until Switch exceeds "X1family".

How long util Switch exceeds "X1 family" in sales.

2 years!!! Switch for the... 177 27.79%
 
3 years, strong sales. be... 202 31.71%
 
4 years. It's hard, but ... 134 21.04%
 
5 years, or more. X1 sale... 49 7.69%
 
Never. Ya can't beat &q... 75 11.77%
 
Total:637
derpysquirtle64 said:
If we assume that Xbox One sells 8 million this year and switch will end up selling 12 million, then we will have 36m xboxes versus 12 million switches by the end of the year. In 2018, Xbox will probably end up at 44-45 million while switch at 26-28. So, 2020 will be the earliest when switch will overtake xb1. Probably even in 2021.

P.S. Though it is hard to predict because there are many factors that can change the sales pace of both consoles. Switch can have a huge boost when Pokémon game releases. Also, we don’t know anything about MS first party situation which can increase Xbox sales or decrease if MS continues not investing in first party like this year. Also, let’s not forget that MS as they said themselves decided to go generation less way so the next Xbox which will compete with ps5 can still be a part of Xbox one family and then I doubt that switch will be able to overtake it ever.

If Microsoft can make the Xbox One family span multiple generations, then why can't Nintendo do the same for Switch? Nintendo already has a precedent for this with the Game Boy line, which lasted 12 years before getting a full successor.



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Pemalite said:
caffeinade said:
10 mil 2017
15 mil 2018
18 mil 2019

Xbox One is about 30 million now, I don't think it can do 5 million per year for 2018 and 2019.

Within three years.

I think 2018 might be a decent year with 2019 being a massive bust, 2017 would have been a much larger failure, but the Xbox One X should help it out, especially over the Holiday period.

2018 could potentially have: Crackdown, Halo 6, Forza, Gears 5, Sea of Thieves, State of Decay 2, Ori and the will of wisps and maybe a few other titles which  might get announced before then, the Xbox One X might help improve numbers slightly as well.

I just don't see anything of value for 2019. No new hardware, no new big games due to multi-year development cycles...

With that, Switch is not showing any signs of slowing, if Nintendo sorts out it's supply drama's, they might do significantly better than current projections would hint at.

I'm going to go with 4 years. Only because 2018 could be better than expected, with the potential for it to blow out to 5 years if Nintendo doesn't get supply under control.

Aside from being a halo product, I don't expect much in the way of direct sales with the XxX.

I think we could see the Switch, or a version of it at the price of about $200 before the end of 2020.
That would be a large driver in sales especially combined with Pokemon, natural celebrity endorsement, and enhanced visibility.
The Switch is finally the console that could potentially break into the mainstream in a good way for the industry (ie, not like the Wii, or as a media hub like the PS2).
The weakest part of the visual design is how it looks in the dock, everything else (like a big vent at the top) can and should be nullified by a Switch revision.

Anyway the numbers are wild guesses that I came up with on the spot.



caffeinade said:

Aside from being a halo product, I don't expect much in the way of direct sales with the XxX.

I disagree.
I expect a sudden jump in sales with the Xbox One X, but then after the early adoption period (I.E After this holiday period) sales will taper off.
There is always a big rush towards new hardware as soon as it's released. - Heck... It even happened with the WiiU and that was a colossal failure.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2012/nov/19/wii-u-launch-us-problems

And considering the Xbox One X pre-orders sold out... Well. I expect the Xbox platform to do well over *this* holiday period and the games might carry it next year, but then crash and burn in 2019.

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/xbox-one-x-pre-order-sales-outpace-any-previous-xb/1100-6452864/


caffeinade said:

I think we could see the Switch, or a version of it at the price of about $200 before the end of 2020.
That would be a large driver in sales especially combined with Pokemon, natural celebrity endorsement, and enhanced visibility.
The Switch is finally the console that could potentially break into the mainstream in a good way for the industry (ie, not like the Wii, or as a media hub like the PS2).
The weakest part of the visual design is how it looks in the dock, everything else (like a big vent at the top) can and should be nullified by a Switch revision.

Anyway the numbers are wild guesses that I came up with on the spot.

I am hoping for a Switch hardware revision to lure me into the ecosystem. I'm not happy with the hardware as it is right now, but Nintendo could very quickly and easily change my mind for the better.



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AngryLittleAlchemist said:

Well that's quite the leap in logic. Admitting that you don't know for certain how long it will take > Not willing to take scrutiny. Although my original post might need some editing looking back on it , but damn, you didn't need to be that harsh about it. My prediction is already in my original post plain as day. I'm not hiding my OP. Criticize it if you want.

I'm just saying if you're going to be confrontational the least you could do is explain yourself ... 

AngryLittleAlchemist said:

But considering the XB1 has sold anywhere from 60k to 100k on a weekly basis, and also conisdering holiday sales, anywhere from 7-8.5 million is likely this year. Then the Xbox will be at about 37-38.5 million by the beginning of 2018. All things considered I think XB1 will begin 2019 (as in, in march time) with about  44 or 45.5 million. From there I expect sales of 5.5 million, it will be a slower year for Xbox in 2019. This will lead to 49.5 or 51 million sales as of march 2020.

7M Xbox One systems does sound fairly realistic when we factor in X1X also but it's already sold around 3M units this year so so that'll put the platform at ~34M units by the end of 2017 ... 

AngryLittleAlchemist said:

Nintendo's predictions have the Switch selling about 13 million in it's 1st year. I think it might do a little bit better than that but just on the safe side i'll say it will sell 13 million. The Switch is currently outpassing the DS and 3DS, although iirc not outpacing the Wii. Part of that is due to both those systems launching with continous problems, but one thing that is always noticably is how all three of those systems had a huge growth in their second year. Switch will most likely do 18 in 2018, with 19-21 million the following fiscal year, giving it a total of 50 million or 52 million by March 2020. Which means it will either beat Xb1 exactly 3 years after release, or some time later in 2020.

I realize though that this is just my prediction and that it's not necessarily how things will play out. Maybe four years isn't as ridiculous as I originally thought. 

Gotta be careful when you use the word 'year'. In your case you define year as in 'fiscal year' but the Switch released in the last fiscal at the start of March selling 2.4M units until the end of March which marked the end of a fiscal year. (Comparison would've been a lot easier if we were using regular defined years from Jan to Dec but whatever, this just complicates things on my end.) 

While the Switch is currently ahead it won't have the advantage in price (3DS price cut in August) or plentiful revisions (DS lite introduced in summer 2006) either to drive growth or maintain high volume and it shows ... (The 13M figure is also shipped for next year at the end of March too.) 

When 3DS had it's price cut in August it was able to more than double it's sales rate in comparison to previous months and was able to sell a total of OVER 12M units from the beginning of 2011 to the end of 2011 to consumers according to this sites data ... (The fact that Nintendo only expects 13M units shipped for the end of the fiscal year while 3DS almost met that volume on sold to consumers in December(!) means that Nintendo is expecting the Switch to eventually trail the 3DS by nearly 3 months during that timeframe!) 

DS systems sold a total 10.5M units in 2005 but all that changed in 2006 when Nintendo introduced DS lite which went on to become the most popular SKU of the platform which pushed sales of DS systems to over 20M units in 2006. (That's a growth of over 90+% compared to the previous year!) However, this was not true on the 3DS in which it was the original system that was the most popular SKU and I don't imagine the Switch being comparable to either situation since we don't expect revisions so soon for the Switch, period ... 

What's more is that you're expecting the Switch to double PS4's performance in growth (20% more units sold in 2015 vs 2014) in a smaller time frame too ... (13 months including launch vs 12 months) 

You are LITERALLY expecting Switch shipments to grow by nearly 40% by next fiscal year compared to this fiscal year INCLUDING the launch too while PS4 was only able to sell 20% more units in it's second year (2015) compared to first year (2014) ... (Doing roughly 40% more in 12 months compared to the 13 months which had a launch event too and no price drops or revision also ?! What ?!)

At that point Sony should call it quits when nearly every advantage is given to them yet somehow Nintendo will manage to do much more in less time ...



Pemalite said:
caffeinade said:

Aside from being a halo product, I don't expect much in the way of direct sales with the XxX.

I disagree.
I expect a sudden jump in sales with the Xbox One X, but then after the early adoption period (I.E After this holiday period) sales will taper off.
There is always a big rush towards new hardware as soon as it's released. - Heck... It even happened with the WiiU and that was a colossal failure.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2012/nov/19/wii-u-launch-us-problems

And considering the Xbox One X pre-orders sold out... Well. I expect the Xbox platform to do well over *this* holiday period and the games might carry it next year, but then crash and burn in 2019.

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/xbox-one-x-pre-order-sales-outpace-any-previous-xb/1100-6452864/


caffeinade said:

I think we could see the Switch, or a version of it at the price of about $200 before the end of 2020.
That would be a large driver in sales especially combined with Pokemon, natural celebrity endorsement, and enhanced visibility.
The Switch is finally the console that could potentially break into the mainstream in a good way for the industry (ie, not like the Wii, or as a media hub like the PS2).
The weakest part of the visual design is how it looks in the dock, everything else (like a big vent at the top) can and should be nullified by a Switch revision.

Anyway the numbers are wild guesses that I came up with on the spot.

I am hoping for a Switch hardware revision to lure me into the ecosystem. I'm not happy with the hardware as it is right now, but Nintendo could very quickly and easily change my mind for the better.

According to Microsoft, those were only for the super limited Scorpio edition. Of course it would sell out quickly if only a small number were being produced. But without numbers, that statement doesn't hold much weight. The regular edition X isn't available for preorder yet. 



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I'll give you an answer as soon as I see how well Xbox One X performs this holiday. Unlike you guys, I'm still not convinced that Switch will have legs.



Well it really depends, but 3-4 years seems like safest bet.



I just throw 2020 in.



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4 years :)



StarDoor said:
derpysquirtle64 said:
If we assume that Xbox One sells 8 million this year and switch will end up selling 12 million, then we will have 36m xboxes versus 12 million switches by the end of the year. In 2018, Xbox will probably end up at 44-45 million while switch at 26-28. So, 2020 will be the earliest when switch will overtake xb1. Probably even in 2021.

P.S. Though it is hard to predict because there are many factors that can change the sales pace of both consoles. Switch can have a huge boost when Pokémon game releases. Also, we don’t know anything about MS first party situation which can increase Xbox sales or decrease if MS continues not investing in first party like this year. Also, let’s not forget that MS as they said themselves decided to go generation less way so the next Xbox which will compete with ps5 can still be a part of Xbox one family and then I doubt that switch will be able to overtake it ever.

If Microsoft can make the Xbox One family span multiple generations, then why can't Nintendo do the same for Switch? Nintendo already has a precedent for this with the Game Boy line, which lasted 12 years before getting a full successor.

True. That’s why I said that this is something really hard to predict. We don’t know what direction each platform holder will take even in 2 years lifespan. And it can affect the situation on the market. I doubt that back in 2012-2013 anyone predicted the mid-gen upgrades and Nintendo dumping wiiu so fast.