Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles
Those estimations will focus on XB1 (Xbox One) and PS4 (Playstation 4) rather than WiiU, which, in my opinion is not a true next gen console, and is relevant only to estimate the market size and share between the HD (true next gen) consoles and the Wii Console. Those estimations, based on VGChartz numbers, will be relatively short sighted in the sense that I will only compare & base them on the 7th generation, which I believe was sufficiently long (8+ years!). However, the base years will cut off at the end of year 2012, rather than extend to 2013,
a) The one year gap between PS and XB Consoles didn't happen this time, both releasing in 2013,
b) 7 year period is long enough, with as little disruption from 8th gen as possible.
There are 4 factors for how much each console will sell:
a) Market Share between HD Consoles themselves (primarily gamers)
b) Market Share between HD Consoles and the Wii Console (gamers + one time casuals)
c) Market Size
d) Duration of the Console Generation
I need to add that those estimations will be rough as of now, since there are many unknowns in the market, and they will updated if need be. Below is the PATH to the sales estimation for each console.
XB1 : Estimated Market Size (fnctn of generation duration) * Estimated Share of HD Consoles * Est. Share of XB1
PS4 : Estimated Market Size (fnctn of generation duration) * Estimated Share of HD Consoles * Est. Share of PS4
WiiU: Estimated Market Size (fnctn of generation duration) * Est. Share of WiiU
Let's use more convenient abbreviations :
EMS : Estimated Market Size
GD : Generation Duration
ESHC : Estimated Share of HD Consoles
ESXB1 : Estimated Share of XB1 (among HD Consoles)
ESPS4 : Estimated Share of PS4 (among HD Consoles)
1-ESHC : Estimated Share of WiiU (among all Consoles)
So let's rewrite the equations above
XB1 : EMS (GD) * ESHC * ESXB1
PS4 : EMS (GD) * ESHC * ESPS4
WiiU: EMS (GD) * (1-ESHC)
So we now have nice & dandy formulas to estimate the Sales Figures of each console. Before that, let's analyze what happens to each console's sale with the change of each variable.
EMS : Positively correlated with all consoles
GD : Positively correlated with all consoles
ESHC : Positively correlated with XB1 & PS4, but negatively correlated with WiiU
ESXB1 : Positively correlated with XB1, negatively correlated with PS4 (ESXB1 = 1- ESPS4)
ESPS4 : Positively correlated with PS4, negatively correlated with XB1 (ESPS4 = 1- ESXB1)
The best start is usually the simplest start, so I will have additional assumptions that will keep things simple; which will be altered in the future to reflect the necessary changes.
Assumption 1 : Market Size is constant
Assumption 2 : Generation Duration is constant (as of 2012), which is 7 years
**Those two assumptions imply the total sales will be equal to 7th Generation in 7 years (which is of course INACCURATE to some extent). Please keep in mind that this is NOT my prediction. This is merely a momentary simplification as there are too many unknowns at this stage that can go either way.
Assumption 3 : Market Share of HD Consoles will increase tremendously, to around 80-90%. This is based on current sales figures in addition to Nintendo's worst earlier generation (6th gen) sales with Gamecube, as a reference.
* This implies increasing sales for (XB1 + PS4) compared to (X360 + PS3)
ESHC (8th Gen) : 0.80-0.90
1-ESHC (8th Gen) : 0.10-0.20
ESHC (7th Gen) : 0.60
1-ESHC (7th Gen) : 0.40
*7th generation, end of 2012 => X360 : 74 867 113, PS3 : 73,357,818, Wii : 98,674,459
My estimates for HD Consoles, given below, are assumed to hold.
a) Japan => XB1 : <10% vs PS4 : >90%
b) Europe => XB1 : 15-25 % vs PS4 : 75-85%
c) N. America => XB1 : 35-45% vs PS4 : 55-65%
d) Global => XB1 : 24-33% vs PS4 : 67-76%
Now given all that here are my CURRENT sales estimates for all consoles, which are subject to be updated regarding the assumptions above. For now, I will only give my estimates on a GLOBAL scale. But elaborate on more region specific estimates, when things get more concrete. The reason is,
a) I need more Wii-specific data, b) Regional Analysis is more prone to errors, c) I don't have time now.
As a summary
Assume Market Size & Generation Duration are Constant, the total sales of the 8th generation will be equal to the 7th gen in 7 years. Therefore, as of 2020, here are the sales estimates for all consoles on a global scale.
HD Consoles Market Share Estimate : XB1 : 24-33% vs PS4 : 67-76%
HD Consoles vs WiiU Share Estimate : HD : 80-90% vs WiiU : 10-20%
XB1 sales estimate : 47.5 to 73.3 million
PS4 sales estimate : 132.3 to 168.9 million
WiiU sales estimate : 24.7 to 49.4 million
I should add that I personally don't think WiiU will do as good as the numbers may suggest although Japan is always a wildcart. I'd rather err on the high side for XB1 and PS4, and on the low side of WiiU.
UPDATE - 2014-02-15
Let me guys introduce you a sound sales estimate here. Now below on the very left, there are the actual cumulative PS3 sales data, taken from VGChartz data base. On the right, there are 4 possible different scenarios extrapolated from this actual set. Here are a few assumptions, parameters.
a) I assumed that the market will shrink by 17% hence the number 0.83 (from 240 million to 200 million consoles to be sold over 7 years, due to a good chunk Wii crowd leaving the market). This number may be different but not too different.
b) Then I created a scenario where the HD consoles will make up between 80-90% of the market, creating two possible extreme examples, hence the numbers 0.8 & 0.9 corresponding the HD title.
c) Finally the PS4 market among HD Consoles only will range between 67-74%. This all creates a 4 combination output.
When you apply those 4 different scenarios for cumulative sales over 7 years, just take a look at the numbers that appear. You may crunch the numbers in anyway you like, Numbers don't lie.
|PS3||HD=0.80 PS4=67||HD=0.80 PS4=74||HD=0.90 PS4=67||HD=0.90 PS4=74|
So basically, this predicts that PS4 will sell between 13.6 and 17 at the end of this year; and between 120 to 149 million at the end of 2020. You may ask the reason for discrepancy between this estimate and the original one. There are 2 reasons :
a) The previous estimate assumed constant market size, this one shrinks it by 17%
b) The previous estimate was based on 2005-2012 data, this one is based on 2006-2013, causing slight differences.
I applied basically the same extimates for XB1, with one caveat. Because X360 was early to the party and unrivalled at the time,
a) People simply had no choice so they went with X360
b) Many people waited till the PS3 was released, which SLOWED DOWN the first year sales of X360, which creates problems in comparison to XB1.
A good but simple and reasonable solution is to take year averages between the current and the following year, rather than the end of year results. This may create some problems in the short run, it usually works out just fine in the long run (a commonly applied method in economic forecasting). So here are the estimates for XB1 under similar conditions
Market Size shrinks by 17%, HD Console Share increases up to 80-90% range XB1 market share drops to 24-33% range.
|X360||HD=0.80 XB1=24||HD=0.80 XB1=33||HD=0.90 XB1=24||HD=0.90 XB1=33|
This is completely based on the general market and X360 specific data from VGChartz; there are 2 main suggestions here.
a) XB1 will sell between 6.3 to 9.8 million at the end of this year
b) XB1 will sell between 41.3 to 63.9 million at the end of 2020
Regional Analysis (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 : 49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global => XB1 : 32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%