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Forums - Sales Discussion - The great Thread of failed Analysts

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Porcupine_I on 12 December 2013

I was just looking at GTA V sales and remembered this guy:

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-02-01-gta-v-dev-costs-over-USD137-million-says-analyst

He expected GTA V to sell 18 million across both platforms by the end of the fiscal year.

So thought we should have a thread to share failed analysis of epic proportions



“It appeared that there had even been demonstrations to thank Big Brother for raising the chocolate ration to twenty grams a week. And only yesterday, he reflected, it had been announced that the ration was to be reduced to twenty grams a week. Was it possible that they could swallow that, after only twenty-four hours? Yes, they swallowed it.”

- George Orwell, ‘1984’

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zorg1000 on 12 December 2013

Nintendo/Microsoft expected Gamecube/Xbox to sell 50 million by the end of 2005.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Mummelmann on 12 December 2013

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=174241

How about that one? ^^ Mr.Obvious Mc"duh"



Porcupine_I on 12 December 2013
Mummelmann said:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=174241

How about that one? ^^ Mr.Obvious Mc"duh"

I like how he is dodging the issue of maybe outselling the PS4



“It appeared that there had even been demonstrations to thank Big Brother for raising the chocolate ration to twenty grams a week. And only yesterday, he reflected, it had been announced that the ration was to be reduced to twenty grams a week. Was it possible that they could swallow that, after only twenty-four hours? Yes, they swallowed it.”

- George Orwell, ‘1984’

jlmurph2 on 12 December 2013

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=152409&page=1#

How about this gem.



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Mummelmann on 12 December 2013
jlmurph2 said:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=152409&page=1#

How about this gem.


OP is bad, a couple of posts on the last page are a lot worse; they're basically maintaining the same thing after it has become obvious that it can't happen under any circumstance.



kirby007 on 12 December 2013

As much as I like to discredit others, some of you needs to grow a pair and do some predictions and analysis themselves before shaming others



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

Rhonin the wizard on 12 December 2013
kowenicki said:

Although wasn't there one which had a projection showing the Wii userbase actually reducing? lol.

Was it this one?

Here is a list of them.

A couple of my favorites:

Pachter: Microsoft at 30-35 percent, Sony at 45-55 percent, and Nintendo at what's left

Piper Jaffray: we estimate Sony will garner 45%-50% hardware share, Microsoft will take 35%-40% hardware share and Nintendo will maintain 15% of the console hardware market in the U.S.

Strategy Analytics: PlayStation 3 predicted to sell 121.8 million

Citigroup: Xbox 360 will hold its lead and edge out the PlayStation 3 in the U.S. selling an estimated 8 million units in 2008 compared with 7.1 million PlayStation 3s in that year (for a grand total of 19.8 million since launch vs. 11 million, respectively). Nintendo to have sold 3.9 million Revolution systems by 2008.

Nomura Securities: PS3 will outsell Wii by 60%. PS3 will sell 71 million units by 2011 compared with an estimated 40 million units for Wii.

Screen Digest: By 2011 the PS3 will have caught up with the Wii.

SFG Research: 2010 worldwide: PS3 - 62m, X360 - 46m, Wii - 25m.

Reeves: PS3 will beat PS2's lifetime sales.

Iwata: DS install base could reach 152.2 million.



UFOJoe on 13 December 2013
Rhonin the wizard said:
kowenicki said:

Although wasn't there one which had a projection showing the Wii userbase actually reducing? lol.

Was it this one?

Here is a list of them.

A couple of my favorites:

Pachter: Microsoft at 30-35 percent, Sony at 45-55 percent, and Nintendo at what's left

Piper Jaffray: we estimate Sony will garner 45%-50% hardware share, Microsoft will take 35%-40% hardware share and Nintendo will maintain 15% of the console hardware market in the U.S.

Strategy Analytics: PlayStation 3 predicted to sell 121.8 million

Citigroup: Xbox 360 will hold its lead and edge out the PlayStation 3 in the U.S. selling an estimated 8 million units in 2008 compared with 7.1 million PlayStation 3s in that year (for a grand total of 19.8 million since launch vs. 11 million, respectively). Nintendo to have sold 3.9 million Revolution systems by 2008.

Nomura Securities: PS3 will outsell Wii by 60%. PS3 will sell 71 million units by 2011 compared with an estimated 40 million units for Wii.

Screen Digest: By 2011 the PS3 will have caught up with the Wii.

SFG Research: 2010 worldwide: PS3 - 62m, X360 - 46m, Wii - 25m.

Reeves: PS3 will beat PS2's lifetime sales.

Iwata: DS install base could reach 152.2 million.

I thought DS reached 152.2 million.



TheKoreanGuy on 13 December 2013
kowenicki said:

This will always be the best.  Especially whne you consider this prediction was made IN 2008.

 

 

Although wasn't there one which had a projection showing the Wii userbase actually reducing? lol.

The Wii prediction is pretty accurate.