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Forums - Sales Discussion - SM3DW No. 2 game next week, No. 1 exclusive this holiday in the U.S.?

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Anfebious on 01 December 2013

I think Super Mario 3D World will win. You forgot that Gran Turismo 6 is for 7th gen consoles so mario doesn't have too much fight to claim the spot as the 8th gen best selling exclusive.this holiday in the US.



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think-man on 01 December 2013

Is it beating Killzone SF?



 

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tbone51 on 01 December 2013
think-man said:
Is it beating Killzone SF?


No but it will lifetime :P



enrageorange on 01 December 2013

Next week is black friday week so I think there will be a few games that will outsell it in the US.

360/ps3 versions of ghosts.
Wii version of just dance 2014
And maybe the 360 versions of Battlefield 4, GTA 5, and Assassin's Creed.


Last of Us, Halo 4, and ps3 version of batman might also end up ahead due to bundles.

As for best selling exclusive this holiday. It should do it quite handily. It's up against launch titles and GT6. GT6 is the only real threat. GT5 managed 1.2mil its first holidays in the US, though I expect this one to be significantly lower.



dsage01 on 01 December 2013

You forgot to mention on your comparison that SMB released on a dead platform.



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think-man on 01 December 2013
tbone51 said:
think-man said:
Is it beating Killzone SF?


No but it will lifetime :P

Hmm probably



 

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PlayMatt on 01 December 2013

Wow I've never realized Mario was just as milked as COD



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tbone51 on 01 December 2013
PlayMatt said:
Wow I've never realized Mario was just as milked as COD


lol, pls do show facts, go ahead. 



PlayMatt on 01 December 2013
Shadow1980 said:
PlayMatt said:
Wow I've never realized Mario was just as milked as COD


Let's see. Nine COD games released so far on the 360 & PS3. Three Mario games on the Wii, two on the Wii U, two on the DS (one of those was a remake of SM64), and two on the 3DS. So, we can probably expect one more Mario game for the Wii U (probably another 64/Galaxy-style "Star Hunt" game), and maybe one more on the 3DS. Meanwhile, we can probably expect six more COD games by time the Wii U and 3DS go off the market. Also, every COD game is just an iteration of the previous (COD4 was the only one that was substantially different from the previous), while Mario is always changing and comes in both 2D and two different 3D styles. So, I wouldn't say Mario is "just as milked as COD."

Besides, what's wrong with this so-called "milking," anyway? If it sells and people have fun playing them, then what's wrong with it? Why should a franchise be limited to only one game every, say, 3-4 years?

Chill out dude, never said it was bad... Just got desperate cause I've just realized I'm still late for playing some of his mainline games



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enrageorange on 01 December 2013
Shadow1980 said:
enrageorange said:

Next week is black friday week so I think there will be a few games that will outsell it in the US.

360/ps3 versions of ghosts.
Wii version of just dance 2014
And maybe the 360 versions of Battlefield 4, GTA 5, and Assassin's Creed.


Last of Us, Halo 4, and ps3 version of batman might also end up ahead due to bundles.

As for best selling exclusive this holiday. It should do it quite handily. It's up against launch titles and GT6. GT6 is the only real threat. GT5 managed 1.2mil its first holidays in the US, though I expect this one to be significantly lower.

Except software released in November prior to Black Friday rarely if ever gets a boost on the week of Black Friday. They do start to grow their sales about a week or two into December, though.

Anything that was released more than two weeks ago will get a huge boost. Looking at last year and the year before.

Assassin's Creed III went from 120k on ps3 and 100k on 360 to 300k on ps3 and 265k on 360.
Year before
Battlefield 3 went from 45k on 360 to 109k on 360.
Akrham City went from 34k on 360 and less on ps3, to 107k on 360 and 97k on ps3.

Considering this year black friday sales were absolutely crazy for some of these games I wouldn't be surprised if the games I mentioned sell three times as many copies as they did this week.
That would put Grand Theft Auto 5 at 310k, battlefield 4 at 150k, and Assassin's Creed IV at 120k. I think Super Mario will sell between 100-200k next week in the US, so those games certainly have a shot at outselling it.
Just Dance always does massive numbers on black friday and I expect it to be the number one game next week by a sizable margin. 

EDIT messed up numbers