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Next week is black friday week so I think there will be a few games that will outsell it in the US.

360/ps3 versions of ghosts.
Wii version of just dance 2014
And maybe the 360 versions of Battlefield 4, GTA 5, and Assassin's Creed.


Last of Us, Halo 4, and ps3 version of batman might also end up ahead due to bundles.

As for best selling exclusive this holiday. It should do it quite handily. It's up against launch titles and GT6. GT6 is the only real threat. GT5 managed 1.2mil its first holidays in the US, though I expect this one to be significantly lower.