Given all the talk of sedextuple cores and infinite ram in the PS4 hardware, it is my prediction that the PS4 will be an expensive console to make, but not as expensive as the PS3 was for its time. Reason being, goodbye to the cell, I hope I am correct.

Now, the PS Vita is a high-tech piece of portable console HW. It's my understanding that the PS4 will push graphics drastically, and that will also come at a price, a very Vita-ish price. Costly, sold at a loss, but not something that will require a second job (thank Kaz above). So, it's my understanding that the PS4 will be priced 400 to 500$ at launch.

Given that the successor to the xbox is the true jewel of the eyes of western developers of late, the exception are mostly 2nd party or closely tied to Sony, it's my understanding that most support will ignore the PS4 in waits for the successor to the xbox.

With all this said, I believe the PS4 will follow a similar HW sales trend to the PS3: very low at start, and a much slower time to arrive at peak. I believe it will cap at similar numbers due to what I understand to be their target audience.

However, the latest news on Sony's new marketting style could point to a more adequate tapping into the mainstream audience. If that is true I expect PS4 total sales to beat PS3 total sales closer to Wii lifetime numbers.

Thanks for watching.

We have no idea if it will follow the same pattern or not. We still have no confirmation on specs, price, features and other services of the system. And most of all the gaming support it has

For it to follow a similar pattern there are many other factors too, including the competition. WiiU, at least for now, is not a competitor on the same level the wii was. We have no idea how the next xbox will turn out too

All in all it's way too early to speculate

what mugen said. we have no idea what games are in the pipe;lines for release at launch so or me it's to early to determine. good luck with your prediction HPD.

I think there are a few things we can be pretty confident about.

I don't expect it to be sold at 300$, that was the Vita's price with Mem card, and this is something much greater than the Vita, if HW speculation is any indicator. I don't expect it to be sold at 600$ either, as that was a failure of a price, and they will never repeat that mistake, not in a million years.

So there are some things we know.

Then, we know that devs have been much more lovey-dovey with Microsoft in general, the exceptions usually make exclusives for Sony. Multiplats are usually more xbox friendly. This is above and beyond the fact that the xbox has 1.5 times the marketshare PS has in the US.

Then, what exactly could boost PS4 sales above PS3 sales that hasn't been confirmed yet? I know one being that they may have a more effective strategy to target the mainstream. That's 30m units more, since there is competition from MS in that market as well, let alone Nintendo.

We also know that the core market caps at around 80-90m units sold, and that's with remodels being released.

we don't even know if there will be a ps4, with Sony's dire financial situation (shake head)

nope, it will dominate

Agree on the price..at least we can have an idea about the range. But even then it's better to see the actual amount as it can affect the future a lot

and if any of the new rumors are true then sony will not have any issues with multiplats. Actually Orbis is a much simpler and dev friendly system than Durango..at least from the looks of it. 

Sony has good relationships with certain publishers too...such as EA. And some like Ubisoft doesn't seem to favor anyone. Activision will favor anyone who pays them more so it's a matter of if sony feels it's worth it..they didn't this gen so I doubt they will next gen. 

I already gave you a list of things we don't know...basically we don't know ANYTHING for certain. I also pointed how we don't know about the 720 rival and wiiu is definitely not a wii at the moment which won't affect the next console in any huge way. 

All things said it's way too early to speculate. Would be better to wait for the Orbis and Durango reveals then we will have a much better idea on the situation. Even the launch time matters for example..ps3 launched a year later than the 360 which did harm it's potential sales and momentum. 

Only time will tell how the sales of new consoles will go down, everyone said Wii U will take off like a rocket when it first came out and its still struggling for momentum atm. So who knows what the PS4 or 720 will do. My opinion is that the PS4 will do alot better then the PS3 did when it launched as it will be packing good power and a cheaper launch price tag.

The PS3's biggest problem at launch was games imo; that's not a problem I expect the PS4 will have. The initial first party support for the PS4 is pretty much guaranteed to be massively superior to the PS3's initial first party support. Sony's first party team has improved so much since 2006 that it's no even worth explaining. This improved first party team obviously will lead to more exclusives at launch than the PS3. This will lead to more sales.

Playstation's marketing has also drastically improved. Do we all remember those creepy white room commercials from 2006? Remember the demonic baby? Sony's marketing was downright terrible at the launch of the PS3 and will definitely be better for the PS4. Sony may not have the perfect marketing strategy, but it's been pretty good since the release of the Slim in 2009. And with news of them hiring new marketing talent, it looks like Sony is focusing on improving even further. This will lead to more sales.

Another big problem with the PS3 was its difficult architecture. The console was so difficult to develop for that almost all multiplats were inferior on the console; many developers even ignored the PS3 altogether. This problem was made much worse considering the X360 was not only simpler, but also released a year earlier giving developers extended time to get used to the system. This won't hapen with the PS4; the PS4 will not release a year after the Nextbox and chances are it won't be as difficult to develop for since Sony themselves said they will be more developer-friendly in the future. This will lead to more sales.

"Given that the successor to the xbox is the true jewel of the eyes of western developers of late, the exception are mostly 2nd party or closely tied to Sony, it's my understanding that most support will ignore the PS4 in waits for the successor to the xbox."

This entire point is probably moot since the Nextbox will probably release this year anyway. So developers will release their games on both consoles. This time Microsoft's console won't have a year advantage though. And even if the Nextbox doesn't release this year, that's going to definitely be an advantage for the PS4 compared to the PS3.

Price seems to be the only point you have, though it's really just a guess. But let's imagine that  the PS4 will be the exact same price as the PS3 (which it won't), that point would still be handedly countered by the aforementioned points, so the PS4 would still sell more than the PS3 initially; or at least that's the reasonable prediction at the moment.

Also, the Wii U is much less popular than the Wii. Gamers from the Wii will thus migrate elsewere (tablets, mobile, etc.). Some of them may migrate to the PS4. This probably won't cause any noticeable increases to sales, but Nintendo's downfall is probably more beneficial than detrimental for the PS4.

In summary, advantages for the PS4 include:

1. More/better launch Games
2. Better Marketing
3. Won't release a year after the Xbox
4. Easier architecture (most likely)
5. Will be cheaper (most likely)
6. One less dominating console

Eh... since I was requested to post here...

The rumored specs of the PS4 don't really seem to put it in the very high price range. It's rumored to have an AMD 8 core at 1.5 GHZ or something. Similar to an A8 APU which is a very inexpensive chip. The rumored graphics cards are also pretty expensive. Of course these are rumors, but I tend to think the PS4 and the X-Box 720 will be a little more conservative than most people expect. I don't think that the average consumer (who is happy playing the sub-hd COD) will need the best graphics out there. There are a lot of people who are very big on graphics (like many of the people you see round these parts), but I think the costs to appeal to those fans would be larger than the return on investment.

I think the 720 and PS4 are going to have slow launches. Part of the problem is iPads and other tablets. They're not direct competitors, but any electronics product is going to impact other devices. It's not a matter of "well I could just play games on my iPad..." It's a matter of "I have 400 dollars... do I buy a new iPad or a PS4?" The bigger problem however is the PS3 and 360, which I think are going to make it hard for the PS4 and 720 to gain traction. I think that developers are going to be reluctant to leave the large audience they have. Unless Sony and Microsoft have amazing executives working with third parties, companies like Activision and EA are going to go half assed into the next generation while they hedge their bets on older consoles.

Think about it this way. If Just Dance had launched as a Wii U exclusive (not available on the Wii or Kinect... it could stay on the Move cause who has a Move?) do you think the Wii U's sales would have been different? I do. It wouldn't be night and day based on Just Dance's fanbase, but it would have been a noticeable difference.

Now, think about the X-Box 720 and PS4. Let's say Call of Duty 17 is exclusive to next gen (include the Wii U if you want or don't). You'll see a very very quick adoption rate for the X-Box 720 and PS4. People want to play that game, and many will buy a new console just for that.

Now lets say COD launches on the 360, PS3, Wii U, and PS4/720 as I expect. The PS4 version looks about as good as Crysis 3's PC version and the other games look like we'd expect. Will gamers flock to the new console? I don't think so. I think it'll be a pretty slow burn. Especially considering that most people will still have the game on PS3 and 360, I don't think people are going to rush out to buy a 720 or PS4 when they could play a similar but uglier version of the game with their friends and still have money to buy a new tablet or w/e.

Software sells hardware and both Sony and Microsoft are reliant on third parties who are not going to be very eager to leave the 360 and PS3 behind. You'll see some exclusives, but they'll be of the Zombi U variety. Good, but not top of the line stuff. With games like COD costing upwards of 100 million dollars (with advertising and all) it just doesn't make sense to release them exclusively for nonexistent install bases.

Microsoft and Sony's early success will depend on their first party software, and frankly I just don't see them coming up with something earth shattering to convince people "OMG I NEED THIS DAY ONE". The only franchise Microsoft has that can do that is Halo, and I don't see another one of those coming out this year. Sony's best bet is Gran Turismo. That has a better chance of releasing, but still won't be enough.

In short, I don't see third parties producing must have exclusives, and I don't see Microsoft or Sony releasing anything that screams "SPEND 4-500 DOLLARS ON THIS SYSTEM RIGHT NOW!" I think you're going to see a Wii U like situation. There's going to be a pretty slow burn as people stick to the old consoles, and it will take Sony and Microsoft a year or maybe more to convince people to make the jump. Hopefully, Sony and/or Microsoft will prove me wrong.