The PS4 will follow a similar sales trend to the PS3

[JWeinCom]

Eh... since I was requested to post here...

The rumored specs of the PS4 don't really seem to put it in the very high price range. It's rumored to have an AMD 8 core at 1.5 GHZ or something. Similar to an A8 APU which is a very inexpensive chip. The rumored graphics cards are also pretty expensive. Of course these are rumors, but I tend to think the PS4 and the X-Box 720 will be a little more conservative than most people expect. I don't think that the average consumer (who is happy playing the sub-hd COD) will need the best graphics out there. There are a lot of people who are very big on graphics (like many of the people you see round these parts), but I think the costs to appeal to those fans would be larger than the return on investment.

I think the 720 and PS4 are going to have slow launches. Part of the problem is iPads and other tablets. They're not direct competitors, but any electronics product is going to impact other devices. It's not a matter of "well I could just play games on my iPad..." It's a matter of "I have 400 dollars... do I buy a new iPad or a PS4?" The bigger problem however is the PS3 and 360, which I think are going to make it hard for the PS4 and 720 to gain traction. I think that developers are going to be reluctant to leave the large audience they have. Unless Sony and Microsoft have amazing executives working with third parties, companies like Activision and EA are going to go half assed into the next generation while they hedge their bets on older consoles.

Think about it this way. If Just Dance had launched as a Wii U exclusive (not available on the Wii or Kinect... it could stay on the Move cause who has a Move?) do you think the Wii U's sales would have been different? I do. It wouldn't be night and day based on Just Dance's fanbase, but it would have been a noticeable difference.

Now, think about the X-Box 720 and PS4. Let's say Call of Duty 17 is exclusive to next gen (include the Wii U if you want or don't). You'll see a very very quick adoption rate for the X-Box 720 and PS4. People want to play that game, and many will buy a new console just for that.

Now lets say COD launches on the 360, PS3, Wii U, and PS4/720 as I expect. The PS4 version looks about as good as Crysis 3's PC version and the other games look like we'd expect. Will gamers flock to the new console? I don't think so. I think it'll be a pretty slow burn. Especially considering that most people will still have the game on PS3 and 360, I don't think people are going to rush out to buy a 720 or PS4 when they could play a similar but uglier version of the game with their friends and still have money to buy a new tablet or w/e.

Software sells hardware and both Sony and Microsoft are reliant on third parties who are not going to be very eager to leave the 360 and PS3 behind. You'll see some exclusives, but they'll be of the Zombi U variety. Good, but not top of the line stuff. With games like COD costing upwards of 100 million dollars (with advertising and all) it just doesn't make sense to release them exclusively for nonexistent install bases.

Microsoft and Sony's early success will depend on their first party software, and frankly I just don't see them coming up with something earth shattering to convince people "OMG I NEED THIS DAY ONE". The only franchise Microsoft has that can do that is Halo, and I don't see another one of those coming out this year. Sony's best bet is Gran Turismo. That has a better chance of releasing, but still won't be enough.

In short, I don't see third parties producing must have exclusives, and I don't see Microsoft or Sony releasing anything that screams "SPEND 4-500 DOLLARS ON THIS SYSTEM RIGHT NOW!" I think you're going to see a Wii U like situation. There's going to be a pretty slow burn as people stick to the old consoles, and it will take Sony and Microsoft a year or maybe more to convince people to make the jump. Hopefully, Sony and/or Microsoft will prove me wrong.