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If it is Nintendo's only option for a home console and has worse third-party than Xbox and PlayStation, it would do similarly to GameCube. Maybe similar to N64 in a better sales situation
If it got most of the third-party games, it would probably at least match or surpass the competition in sales with quality Nintendo titles and most third-party games available.
There is an enthusiast market for an extra more powerful SKU. That would be a better idea for Nintendo so that they can still get the majority of customers to buy the cheaper standard model.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 159 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million, then 161 million)

PS5: 116 million (was 105 million, then 115 million, then 122 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)

Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima