Prediction: PS6 won't sell over 50 million units lifetime.

[EricHiggin]

DekutheEvilClown said:

Otter said:

In general it is too early to speak with any confidence, what I will say though is that if the system is priced unlike any prior console, it's sales are unlikely the follow the trajectory of any other console. We've seen what the price hike has done to PS5 sales, we saw what a $600 price tag done to PS3 sales.

I don't believe a $800+ system will be able to sell more than 50m without reaching a $600 price tag relatively early in its life. We'll have to see the pricetag and business models sony approaches. There are a lot of eager gamers and people with very high disposable income who could blindly buy a $1000 system... But by a lot I mean a few dozen million. The majority of the console market is just casual & average income consumers and I don't think they'd budge and if they don't budge, developers won't either. PS5 will continue getting games forever and they will look and play solid to the casual eye who can't see the difference in RT without direct comparison, or doesn't fuss over 30fps vs 60fps etc

The PS3 launch price of $600 would be $993 today adjusted for inflation. So, the price would not be as unprecedented as it might appear.

The Bill of materials for the PS6 was rumoured, by a reliable source, to be around $800 before the price increases. That means it should get back to that in a few years, and potentially lower. By late 2028 it is not out of the question for a slightly subsidised $800 launch price, and maybe even $700 with heavy subsidisation(all digital makes this more attractive). By the end of the gen it could be around $500 if we manage to go a significant period of time without high inflation/component demand shocks/absurd tariffs. 

How well is Pro selling at $900? If Pro were available at launch in 2020, for $800-$900, with or without the base PS5, how would it have likely sold?

There's plenty of gamers, especially PS4 owners, still waiting for that $400 PS5 Disc Edition pricing. How much longer before it reaches $400?...