Is there even a mass market for next genn console's anymore?

[Shadow1980]

Considering we're looking down the business end of the double barrels of $1000+ hardware as well as the impending demise of physical media despite continued strong demand, I could easily see a massive contraction in the console market next generation. Probably nothing like the Crash of '83 where from 1983 to 1985 the console market in North America declined 97% in terms of revenue, but many people being priced out out owning a next-gen console and many others likely boycotting because the option to own physical copies was taken away from them will likely leave the console market, at least for conventional consoles, ending up as much more niche hobby for people with deeper pockets who don't care about owning games. I could even see a lot of people go "Why spend that on a console that doesn't support physical when I can just get a PC that's at least not a walled garden?"

We've already seen what happens when consoles are overpriced. The Neo-Geo cost $400 at launch, or over $1080 in today's money, and, along with $100+ games ($250+ in today's money), it was relegated to a niche platform. The Saturn also cost $400 at launch, or $880 in today's money, and was dead on arrival in the face of cheaper alternatives like the PS1 and N64. But even the PS1 wasn't exactly cheap at launch, ($300, or $656 in today's money), and being an unproven brand at that point it languished with slow sales until the price dropped to half its original price. The PS3 cost $500 or $600 at launch ($832 or $998 in current dollars) depending on the SKU, and it cost them a lot of sales, losing massive market share to Xbox (which to be fair wasn't exactly cheap at launch, either). I'd argue that the only thing keeping the PS3 alive was PlayStation being an established brand with quite a bit of brand loyalty and the fact that Sony worked quick to try to get the PS3 down to something reasonable (a $400 40GB SKU was introduced just a year after launch, putting the PS3 exactly between the 360 Pro and 360 Elite in price). And while the PS5 and Series X had relatively reasonable launch prices, continued price hikes have resulted in them being the most expensive systems ever at this point in their life cycle even after adjusting for inflation, which is harming sales significantly. The whole point of price cuts is to lower the barrier of entry for those unwilling or unable to buy the system at launch. Now thanks to a combination of the orange pedo's tariffs, yet another war in the Persian Gulf, and Plagiarism Bot 3000..., excuse me, "A.I.," there have been tremendous inflationary pressures on computer hardware components, resulting in this being not only the first generation to not have any price cuts, but the first to have price hikes.

Nintendo may continue to thrive longer if they can avoid the same pitfalls PS & Xbox are falling into. If the Switch 3 costs something outrageous and is also a digital-only device, I can see them experiencing a contraction in sales as well.

This is not a good time for the video game industry. Except for the Switch's massive success, this decade has been plagued by problems. PS5 & Series X shortages early on. Massive hardware price hikes. Now Sony basically telling their customers to either forgo physical games or do without, and MS is likely to follow suit.

Goddamn, I hate this fucking decade. Aside from a few shows, movies, and games I really liked, it's really been one non-stop parade of misery. COVID, Trump getting re-elected, Silicon Valley trying to institute neo-feudalism, losing my job, medical bills piling up after an incident this past December, even a damn hurricane hitting my area for the first time in recorded history, and now the companies behind my hobby of 40+ years are basically telling people like me to fuck off.