Will there be a console, breaking 200M within the next 3 gens?

[Shadow1980]

Not a chance, unless markets outside the main three (NA, Japan, & Europe) really open up to consoles and start buying them in massive quantities. Initially, NA and Japan were the only major markets for consoles. Europe finally adopting consoles en masse was what propelled the PS1 to be the first home console to sell over 100M units. That's how important opening up new markets for consoles is for growth.

The combined market for PlayStation & Xbox sat at around 170-175M for the previous two generations (it was 184M for Gen 6 due to the absurdly long legs of the PS2), and there is considerable overlap between the two in terms of ownership, meaning the actual market for conventional consoles is smaller than their combined sales would suggest. On Nintendo's end, even with everything going in their favor, they've managed 150M+ on two separate occasions, but nowhere close to 200M. The 150-160M really does seem to be the upper limit for any console, and for conventional consoles, even if Xbox collapses and PlayStation absorbs, say, 80% of the people who owned an Xbox but not also a same-gen PlayStation, after accounting for the portion that owned both an Xbox and a PlayStation you're still talking maybe at best PlayStation going back to PS2-level sales or close to it.

For now, the hardware market is as big as it's going to get. Maybe if China, India, and other emerging markets start buying consoles by the tens of millions, we'll see future growth, but that's just a hypothetical scenario that isn't guaranteed to happen.