No 3D Mario on Switch 2 yet seems to have short-circuited a lot of folks

[angrypoolman]

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Here is the funny thing about narrative vs. facts.  The vast majority of people believe narrative.  They do not believe facts.  I've even caught people on this site doing it, and people here value data a lot more than other sites.  That is just how powerful narrative is.  However, I'm going to state the facts below even if it contradicts some popular narratives.

Nintendo has been making games a long time, and their fanbase can be split up into 6 groups based on what their favorite system(s) is/are.  These are 1) NES/SNES, 2) N64/GCN, 3) Wii/Wii U, 4) GB/GBA, 5) DS/3DS, and 6) Switch/Switch 2.  Now let's order these systems from most to least popular (based on hardware and software) and and also list the most important franchise or two from these systems:

1) DS/3DS - Pokemon, 2D Mario

2) Switch/Switch 2 - Mario Kart, Animal Crossing

3) GB/GBA - Pokemon

4) Wii/Wii U - Wii Sports, Mario Kart

5) NES/SNES - 2D Mario

6) N64/GCN - 3D Mario, Smash Bros

I'm stripping it down to just a franchise or two per group for simplicity sake, but it still gives you a pretty good idea how each group thinks.  If a person thinks N64 is the greatest system ever, and he sees a 3D Mario game that he likes on a new Nintendo system, then he thinks, "this system is for me" and otherwise he thinks "this Nintendo system is not for me".  Furthermore, a compelling Wii Sports or Mario Kart game is what pulls in Wii fans, and a compelling 2D Mario is what pulls in NES/SNES fans.

Also we can roughly rank Nintendo's top franchises based on the earlier list I made.  It looks something like this from most to least important:

1) Pokemon
2) Mario Kart
3) 2D Mario
4) Animal Crossing
5) Wii Sports
6) 3D Mario
7) Smash Bros  

All 7 of these franchises are highly important, but Pokemon and Mario Kart actually are the most important.  I say this, because N64/GCN fans are the most vocal fans online, but there are actually the smallest of the 6 groups of Nintendo fans.  The people calling for 3D Mario are the N64 fans, and they authentically want a new 3D Mario, but Wii fans want a new Wii Sports game and NES fans want a new 2D Mario game, but they are just less vocal.  And Pokemon fans are probably the biggest group, and what they really want is a revolutionary new Pokemon game in the same way that Breath of the Wild was revolutionary to Zelda.

So, I use this to evaluate how Nintendo is doing from a business side.  Mario Kart is hugely important and it launched the system.  Pokemon is also hugely important and the 2nd best selling Switch 2 game is a Pokemon spinoff.  They also have Switch Sports Resort on the way, which has a lot more sports than Switch Sports did.  This looks like Nintendo is trying harder to get Wii fans to buy the Switch 2, because not enough people bought Switch Sports.  N64 fans are getting remakes of Zelda and Starfox, and Nintendo is hoping this is enough of a stopgap until their 3D Mario is ready.  However, what N64 fans really want most is a new 3D Mario, and that is why they are complaining.  

tl;dr
Nintendo is doing a good job of selling the Switch 2 and pleasing a lot of their fans.  From a business perspective Nintendo's strategy is solid, but N64 fans are going to keep complaining until they get a new 3D Mario game.

noooo way you saw people on this site doing it? thats just crazy and i dont know if i believe it.

in all seriousness though, i appreciate this analysis. i really dont want to nitpick it but i did want to say this: speaking personally, i dont fall into any of those six categories. im more of a snes/n64 with a heavy leaning toward snes. so as im reading your post, im trying to see if my sensibilities are at all represented in your analysis and i cant say that it is. which is fine, but i did think it was worth pointing out as a way to kind of see if it works in my case. i do think it was an otherwise solid summary of whats going on, and of course nintendo is making solid financial decisions. that isnt really what any of the discussions post direct have been about. i think we all understand theyre doing great regardless of whatever side youre on. i hate repeating myself for the 100th time, but i will do it again for the sake of clarity. my complaint is that their biggest release for the year is a remake (even if its not the highest selling game of the year they are positioning it as their most important release to satisfy their core fanbase - hence, biggest release) while they are padding their first party announcements with switch 2 upgrades. they have not built up enough of a library of original titles in order to justify it in my mind. but as ive learned, pokopia came out and that was a huge release that sold a ton of copies.

Last edited by angrypoolman - on 12 June 2026