| SAguy said: I'm not going to argue ai, but what the two of you have suggested is marksman fallacy. Also Amazon was actually profitable pretty early on in its business life it just choose to reinvest all it's earnings into the cloud and retail. As for uber they operated in a zero interest environment and thus faced lower financing costs then the current AI companies. Their not good examples either as Uber raised $20 bill and Amazon lost $5billion which is much less then most AI companies. |
OK, you may be right on Amazon, i just remember back then reading all the time how Amazon grew their losses year over year, and then in crash they suddenly started to become profitable. But it makes sense: they were investing heavily and therefore were in the red, but in the changed market environment of the crash they decided to become more fiscally conservative.
I had to look up marksman fallacy and was directed by search to Texas sharpshooter fallacy, which is cherry-piccking examples to fit your story. You maybe right. But man, I think that even after the hype is corrected we have *some* real use cases. As a programmer I despise vibe coding, because no one can understand and maintain that code base. But even I have to admit, that in some use cases it doesn't matter: you want a thing to work now and don't care for later. I watched a video about the math thing that was mentioned earlier, by a mathematician. I cannot judge the math, but in the middle he dropped quickly, that all the animations he used to explain the problem discussed he vibe coded. A quick program to create the animations he wanted for the video and then discard the code. No need to maintain anything. That is a useful way to go about it. I guess were is more.
Sadly I also think the governments will keep using AI for military purposes. I think that genie is out of the bottle. And from the cold war we know governments can pump out a lot of money for military uses.
So I don't know, the hype is too big for sure, these crazy investments are just that... crazy. But I think once the dust settles we have some applications and some viable business models. How big this AI business will be after correction? I really don't know. But as I assume there will be some market, I assume that some of the companies will survive. Again, probably making things cheaper and fleecce customers more.
