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The problem is not that Nate can't be wrong, the problem is that based on his track record there is no logical path that leads to thinking he is guessing or making predictions rather than that he does have good sources.

Having good sources doesn't mean he'll be right 100% of the time, games get cancelled, plans change all the time, but the stuff he leaks is definitely not coming from his head.

Let's says TLoU2 online was never announced and it got cancelled after years like it did, it still existed and a leak about it would appear fake even as it was very much real.

Not only that, but plans change and even extremely knowing people might not know why.

Shuhei Yoshida was one of the producers of The Legend of Dragoon, and years later he went as far as to be SIE's president.
More than 10 years after the game released he said there was a second LoD game once in production, but he changed places from Japan to the USA and that he still didn't know why it was cancelled.

Someone as ridiculous big inside Playstation and deeply involved with LoD didn't know what happened to another LoD game to be cancelled. If Shuhei Yoshida was Nate's inside contact and once told him about that game being in production while Sony never even a single time ever mentioned it before and to this day, that would be counted as a big stain on Nate's track record. But it couldn't be more real.

I'm not saying anyone should believe a guy online, even Nate, but again, based on his track record and the extent he has gotten some things right, there is no logical path that leads to anything else than he having inside contacts actually leaking very specific things to him.

You can choose to believe him or not in general or even in a case by case basis, tho.