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curl-6 3 days ago
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Pemalite said:
curl-6 said:

Almost nothing in life is 100% reliable 100% of the time.

Seatbelts aren't 100% guaranteed to save your life, but I still wear one cos most of the time it will protect me. Tomorrow's weather report isn't 100% relaible, it's right often enough that I'll check it when deciding if should bring an umbrella to work.

Nate's been right about enough things that I'll pay attention to what he has to say.

There is a difference between your life... And the probability of a rumor being accurate.

When we start providing all rumors reverence and support based on a "possibility" then we are throwing facts, evidence and truth out the window in favor of a "maybe".

Now seat-belts *will* improve your chances of survival. That's fact. Based on evidence. (And real world anecdotal experience, having responded to hundreds of accidents over the past few decades.)


There is no evidence that these rumors hold any legitimacy, nor can we garner any such evidence until a later time... When we have moved on from these rumors and people start clinging to the next feel-good rumor out of convenience and click-bait cool-factor.

curl-6 said:

His record's not perfect, but given the number of Directs and reveals he's correctly called in advance, find it implausible that he's operating on speculation alone. The ones who do that are wrong like 90% of the time.


You are missing the point.

If you believe something without evidence, then you open yourself up to being wrong.

Nate has propagated rumors in the past... And was wrong.
Nate has propagated rumors in the past... And was right.

The extent of his accuracy isn't the issue, it's that we don't know if the current rumors are fact or fiction.
And even if these rumors are true? We don't know if the next lot of rumors will also be fact or faction.

He has a track record of being incorrect... Thus it throws all his claims into question going forth.

If a rumor doesn't pan out there's no real consequences or downside, so what does it matter if people want to believe it or discuss it? There's no harm done.

I simply don't find it plausible that Nate could have called so much correctly without a source, so I'm prepared to put enough stock in this to discuss it for fun, it's really that simple.